Ainslie analyzes the concept of willpower, which he defines as the process of foregoing small short-term rewards in favor of superior long-term rewards. Willpower, according to this view, entails cognitive conflict between two desires, typically with a passing temptation in conflict with some longstanding goal. Here, we submit that any analysis of goal-directed behavior that is restricted to such in-the-heat-of-the-moment cognitive conflict – no matter how fine-grained and valid – will inevitably miss an indispensable part of the self-regulatory process. Instead, we suggest that deeper insights can be gained by also focusing on the various psychological processes that occur well before facing a temptation. Our commentary thus focuses less on the details of Ainslie's proposal and more on what his proposal misses.

The disciplines of psychology, economics, and neuroscience presumably turned toward the scientific study of willpower because it appeared to predict a broad set of societally-important outcomes. Willpower, and the related concepts of self-control and self-regulation (Fujita, Reference Fujita2011; Inzlicht, Werner, Briskin, & Roberts, Reference Inzlicht, Werner, Briskin and Roberts2021), predict all manner of good outcomes, including academic achievement, health, wealth, even criminal offending (Moffitt et al., Reference Moffitt, Arseneault, Belsky, Dickson, Hancox, Harrington and Caspi2011). Famously, 4 year old children who had superior willpower, as assessed by how long they could resist eating a marshmallow, grew up to be adolescents with better academic, social, and health outcomes that persisted into adulthood (Casey et al., Reference Casey, Somerville, Gotlib, Ayduk, Franklin, Askren and Shoda2011; Mischel, Shoda, & Rodriguez, Reference Mischel, Shoda and Rodriguez1989; cf. Watts, Duncan, & Quan, Reference Watts, Duncan and Quan2018).

The implication of these sorts of prospective studies is clear: willpower is critical for the good life. Or, so it seemed.

The problem is that children who grow up to become well-adjusted adults might not achieve this feat only via willpower. In fact, the importance of willpower is unsettled. Other processes seem more critical. Research over the past decade makes clear that the best way to reach one's goals is not to fight temptations but to avoid them before they arrive. Research further suggests that willpower is fragile, and that the best self-regulators engage in willpower remarkably seldom.

The first clues that willpower may be overrated came from research examining people who appeared to be the best at meeting their goals. Such people have high trait self-control (Tangney, Baumeister, & Boone, Reference Tangney, Baumeister and Boone2004) or high levels of trait conscientiousness (Roberts, Lejuez, Krueger, Richards, & Hill, Reference Roberts, Lejuez, Krueger, Richards and Hill2014). What came as a surprise to many at the time was that these people used willpower remarkably infrequently in their daily lives, markedly less than people with low self-control (Hofmann, Baumeister, Förster, & Vohs, Reference Hofmann, Baumeister, Förster and Vohs2012a). Instead, it appeared that their self-regulatory abilities were related to the routinization of goal-directed behaviors and the cultivation of good habits (de Ridder, Lensvelt-Mulders, Finkenauer, Stok, & Baumeister, Reference de Ridder, Lensvelt-Mulders, Finkenauer, Stok and Baumeister2012; Galla & Duckworth, Reference Galla and Duckworth2015). Why might this be?

People high in trait self-control experience fewer desires that conflict with their longstanding goals; they experience fewer temptations, fewer and less pronounced cognitive conflicts (Hofmann et al., Reference Hofmann, Baumeister, Förster and Vohs2012a; Schneider, Gillebaart, & Mattes, Reference Schneider, Gillebaart and Mattes2019). One reason for this is that effective self-regulators pursue goals because they truly feel like they want-to pursue them and not because they feel they have-to pursue them (Converse, Juarez, & Hennecke, Reference Converse, Juarez and Hennecke2019). That is, they come up with reasons to pursue their goals that feel autonomous and authentic and not reasons that feel like an imposition (Ryan & Deci, Reference Ryan and Deci2000). Such want-to goals seem resistant to temptation, attracting fewer disruptive thoughts and emotions (even implicit ones) that might detract a person from meeting their goals (Milyavskaya, Inzlicht, Hope, & Koestner, Reference Milyavskaya, Inzlicht, Hope and Koestner2015).

Effective self-regulators avoid having to use willpower because they make plans that structure their lives to avoid temptation from arising. They are planful and future-oriented, drawing up comprehensive strategies that anticipate and deal with potential obstacles to bring their future goals about (Ludwig, Srivastava, Berkman, & Donnellan, Reference Ludwig, Srivastava, Berkman and Donnellan2018; Ludwig, Srivastava, & Berkman, Reference Ludwig, Srivastava and Berkman2019). They often recruit several simultaneous strategies to achieve their goals, many of which are considered proactive, occurring before a temptation is encountered (Hennecke, Czikmantori, & Brandstätter, Reference Hennecke, Czikmantori and Brandstätter2019). For example, people high in trait conscientiousness have better romantic relationships, in part, because they avoid situations and actions that can lead to infidelity (Hill, Nickel, & Roberts, Reference Hill, Nickel and Roberts2014).

By cultivating good habits, selecting personally meaningful goals, and avoiding temptation before it arises, effective self-regulators do not need to rely on willpower as often. And this is a good thing, as it is unclear whether willpower should be relied upon. Despite the controversy surrounding the empirical robustness of the concept of ego depletion (Friese, Loschelder, Gieseler, Frankenbach, & Inzlicht, Reference Friese, Loschelder, Gieseler, Frankenbach and Inzlicht2019), fatigue, and its downstream consequences on attention, is real (Hockey, Reference Hockey2013). It has long been known that attentional control cannot be sustained indefinitely (Mackworth, Reference Mackworth1948). The result of such limits is that people become less able or less willing to sustain their resolve after bouts of effortful work (Blain, Hollard, & Pessiglione, Reference Blain, Hollard and Pessiglione2016; Lin, Saunders, Friese, Evans, & Inzlicht, Reference Lin, Saunders, Friese, Evans and Inzlicht2020), although such effects might be considerably smaller than previously thought. And, it is not just fatigue that can impede willpower; stress, bad moods, and alcohol also weaken it (Heatherton & Wagner, Reference Heatherton and Wagner2011).

The benefits of willpower are in doubt in other ways. Although resisting temptations is more effective than not resisting, the empirical success of resistance varies considerably across studies conducted in real life. Some studies find that resistance is adequate (Hennecke et al., Reference Hennecke, Czikmantori and Brandstätter2019; Hofmann, Schmeichel, & Baddeley, Reference Hofmann, Schmeichel and Baddeley2012b), whereas others find that it was successful in fewer than half the occasions it was attempted (Milyavskaya, Saunders, & Inzlicht, Reference Milyavskaya, Saunders and Inzlichtin press). What is worse, when looking beyond success or failure in one particular situation, at least one study suggests there is little connection between regularly engaging willpower and making progress on one's goals (Milyavskaya & Inzlicht, Reference Milyavskaya and Inzlicht2017). Despite promises that willpower is one of the keys to goal attainment, in the long-run, people who use it may not be better at meeting their goals than people who don't.

It is not yet clear if willpower is generally effective or not. What seems clear is that willpower is overrated. There are other, and arguably better, means to reach one's goals; and the people who reach their goals already know it.