Using an approach similar to that of Guivarc'h and Hardy (1988), we show that the local limit theorem holds for a Markov chain on a countable state space, with non-uniform ergodicity, when the recurrence is fast enough. We present a detailed study of a typical example, the reflected random walk on the positive half-line with negative mean and finite exponential moment. The results can be extended to some random walks on ℕ.

A Markov chain is used as a model for a sequence of random experiments. The waiting time for sequence patterns is considered. Recursive-type relations for the distribution of waiting times are obtained.

We study exponential families within the class of counting processes and show that a mixed Poisson process belongs to an exponential family if and only if it is either a Poisson process or has a gamma structure distribution. This property can be expressed via exponential martingales.

We consider a brokered market with heterogeneous suppliers and consumers of identical items or services. Each supplier determines a minimum acceptable price for the items it supplies, based on its costs and target rate of return. The broker begins with a fixed set of items from the suppliers. Customers arrive periodically to the market and offer a bid for an item. If a customer wants more than one item, a set of bids is made. If the broker accepts a bid it must be assigned an item with minimum accceptable price less than or equal to the bid, and the price paid is the bid price. The broker has the option of rejecting a bid. The broker makes acceptance and assignment decisions to maximize the total expected discounted revenue. We show the optimal policy has a simple threshold structure where thresholds can be easily determined by finding the individually optimal policies subject to priorities.

We adapt arguments from a paper of Seymour and Welsh concerning percolation probabilities on the infinite square lattice L to show that for certain regions R in L, if there is a positive probability of having an infinite open path in L starting at the origin then there is also a positive probability of having such a path within R.

Two types of representations for relation between queue-size and waiting-time distributions are studied. By using these, an incomplete but conceptually nice generalization of Pollaczek–Khinchine formula for mean waiting time for M/G/c is obtained.

Consider the random walk {Sn} whose summands have the distribution P(X=0) = 1-(2/π), and P(X = ± n) = 2/[π(4n2−1)], for n ≥ 1. This random walk arises when a simple random walk in the integer plane is observed only at those instants at which the two coordinates are equal. We derive the fundamental matrix, or Green function, for the process on the integral [0,N] = {0,1,…,N}, and from this, an explicit formula for the mean time xk for the random walk starting from S0 = k to exit the interval. The explicit formula yields the limiting behavior of xk as N → ∞ with k fixed. For the random walk starting from zero, the probability of exiting the interval on the right is obtained. By letting N → ∞ in the fundamental matrix, the Green function on the interval [0,∞) is found, and a simple and explicit formula for the probability distribution of the point of entry into the interval (−∞,0) for the random walk starting from k = 0 results. The distributions for some related random variables are also discovered.

Applications to stress concentration calculations in discrete lattices are briefly reviewed.

An application of the generating function to genetics has provided the probability distribution of homozygotes obtained by self-fertilization, in the case of two linked genetic loci. The individual probabilities are functions of the frequency of genetic recombination between the two loci.

Let {Fn}n ≧ 0 be a sequence of c.d.f. and let {Rn}n ≧ 1 be the sequence of record values in a non-stationary record model where after the (n − 1)th record the population is distributed according to Fn. Then the equidistribution of the nth population and the record increment Rn – Rn– 1 (i.e. Rn – Rn– 1~ Fn) characterizes Fn to have an exponentially decreasing hazard function. To be more precise Fn is the exponential distribution if the support of Rn– 1 generates a dense subgroup in and otherwise the entity of all possible solutions can be obtained in the following way: let for simplicity the above additive subgroup be any c.d.f. F satisfying F(0) = 0, F(1) < 1 can be chosen arbitrarily. Setting λ = – log(1 – F(1)), Fn(x) = 1 – F(x – [x])exp(–λ [x]) is an admissible solution coinciding with F on the interval [0, 1] ([x] denotes the integer part of x). Simple additional assumptions ensuring that Fn is either exponential or geometric are given. Similar results for exponential or geometric tail distributions based on the independence of Rn– 1 and Rn – Rn– 1 are proved.

We observe a sequence X 1, X 2,…, X n of independent and identically distributed coordinatewise nonnegative d-dimensional random vectors. When a vector is observed it can either be selected or rejected but once made this decision is final. In each coordinate the sum of the selected vectors must not exceed a given constant. The problem is to find a selection policy that maximizes the expected number of selected vectors. For a general absolutely continuous distribution of the X i we determine the maximal expected number of selected vectors asymptotically and give a selection policy which asymptotically achieves optimality. This problem raises a question closely related to the following problem. Given an absolutely continuous measure μ on Q = [0,1] d and a τ ∈ Q, find a set A of maximal measure μ(A) among all A ⊂ Q whose center of gravity lies below τ in all coordinates. We will show that a simplicial section { x ∈ Q | 〈 x , θ 〉 ≤ 1}, where θ ∈ ℝ d , θ ≥ 0, satisfies a certain additional property, is a solution to this problem.

Let {Xt}t≧0 (t may be discrete or continuous) be a random process whose finite-dimensional distributions are of exponential type. The first-passage time inf{t:Xt≧f(t)}, where f(t) is a positive, continuous function, such that f(t)= o(t) as t↑∞, is considered. The problem of finiteness of its moments is solved for both the case that {Xt}t≧0 has stationary independent increments as well as the case in which no assumptions are made about stationarity and independence for the increments of the process. Applications to sequential estimation are also given.

The class of stopping rules for a sequence of i.i.d. random variables with partially known distribution is restricted by requiring invariance with respect to certain transformations. Invariant stopping rules have an intuitive appeal when the optimal stopping problem is invariant with respect to the actual gain function. Uniformly best invariant stopping rules are derived for the gamma distribution with known shape parameter and unknown scale parameter, for the uniform distribution with both endpoints unknown, and for the normal distribution with unknown mean and variance. Some comparisons with previously published results are made.

Martingales constitute a basic tool in stochastic analysis; this paper considers their application to counting processes. We use this tool to revisit a renewal theorem and give extensions for various counting processes. We first consider a renewal process as a pilot example, deriving a new semimartingale representation that differs from the standard decomposition via the stochastic intensity function. We then revisit Blackwell’s renewal theorem, its refinements and extensions. Based on these observations, we extend the semimartingale representation to a general counting process, and give conditions under which asymptotic behaviour similar to Blackwell’s renewal theorem holds.

We consider single-server queues with exponentially distributed service times, in which the arrival process is governed by a semi-Markov process (SMP). Two service disciplines, processor sharing (PS) and random service (RS), are investigated. We note that the sojourn time distribution of a type-l customer who, upon his arrival, meets k customers already present in the SMP/M/1/PS queue is identical to the waiting time distribution of a type-l customer who, upon his arrival, meets k+1 customers already present in the SMP/M/1/RS queue. Two sets of system equations, one for the joint transform of the sojourn time and queue size distributions in the SMP/M/1/PS queue, and the other for the joint transform of the waiting time and queue size distributions in the SMP/M/1/RS queue, are derived. Using these equations, the mean sojourn time in the SMP/M/1/PS queue and the mean waiting time in the SMP/M/1/RS queue are obtained. We also consider a special case of the SMP in which the interarrival time distribution is determined only by the type of the customer who has most recently arrived. Numerical examples are also presented.

The probability distributions of the size and the duration of simple stochastic epidemic models are well known. However, in most instances, the solutions are too complicated to be of practical use. In this note, interarrival times of the infectives are utilized to study asymptotic distributions of the duration of the epidemic for a class of simple epidemic models. A brief summary of the results on simple epidemic models in terms of interarrival times is included.

In the study of null-persistent Markov chains the sequence plays an important role. (See for example, Orey (1971), Athreya and Ney (1980).) In this paper we consider the rate of growth of UN to ∞ as N → ∞. This rate of growth is related to the rate of growth of as N → ∞ and also to the rate at which as n → ∞.

We consider the situation when vehicles in a minor road try to cross a major road. The relation between the distributions of the critical, offered and accepted gaps is studied. Estimates of the critical gap distribution from observations of offered and accepted gaps are given and also studied in some simulation examples.