We present an alternative equation to estimate the probable number N of self-conscious intelligent technological societies (SCITSs) within the radius of the observable universe. This equation has only one poorly-known factor, Pc, the SCITS's formation probability, which can be estimated within an uncertainty by a factor of 102 (10−11 ≤ Pc ≤ 10−9) by applying the restriction imposed by Fermi's Paradox. The SCITS's formation rate for a typical spiral galaxy is then estimated as ≈1 civ Gyr−1. For a very optimistic maximum life expectancy ≈108 yr, the conclusion is that two civilizations never coexist in the same galaxy. Our estimated values for Pc are compatible with current biological and astrophysical evidences. We also propose an alternative astrosociological classification scheme which enables us to speculate about possible evolutionary paths for SCITSs in the universe. The so-called ‘Closed Bottle Neck’ (CBN) scenario suggests that civilizations are no exit evolutionary ways. We argue that simply there would not be interstellar travels nor Galaxy colonization or a Galactic Club. Thus Fermi's Paradox results eliminated, and the perspectives about the future of our own civilization may not be positive.

Some stochastic model of rumours asserts that even an advanced communication network does not guarantee every agent hears certain news because they predict that rumour spreaders convert to stifflers when contacted with an informed agent. In this study, we adapted two rumour spread models to interstellar communication by developing an agent-based model (ABM) for exploring the issue more rigorously. We enhanced the spread models by adding two additional parameters called conversion probability and stop-criterion, which represent the eagerness and persistency of civilizations to establish new contacts. Results of the ABM under several settings suggest that limited SETI searches lead to undiscovered civilizations. Earth may be one of these undiscovered civilizations although an advanced communication network might already be set up. Hence, we speculate that rumour spread models can propose another solution to Fermi's Paradox.

The concept of a rapid spread of self-replicating interstellar probes (SRPs) throughout the Milky Way adds considerable strength to Fermi's Paradox. A single civilization creating a single SRP is sufficient for a fleet of SRPs to grow and explore the entire Galaxy on timescales much shorter than the age of the Earth – so why do we see no signs of such probes? One solution to this Paradox suggests that self-replicating probes eventually undergo replication errors and evolve into predator-prey populations, reducing the total number of probes and removing them from our view.

I apply Lotka-Volterra models of predator-prey competition to interstellar probes navigating a network of stars in the Galactic Habitable Zone to investigate this scenario. I find that depending on the local growth mode of both populations and the flow of predators/prey between stars, there are many stable solutions with relatively large numbers of prey probes inhabiting the Milky Way. The solutions can exhibit the classic oscillatory pattern of Lotka-Volterra systems, but this depends sensitively on the input parameters. Typically, local and global equilibria are established with prey sometimes outnumbering the predators. Accordingly, we find this solution to Fermi's Paradox does not reduce the probe population sufficiently to be viable.

The Zoo solution to Fermi's Paradox proposes that extraterrestrial intelligences (ETIs) have agreed to not contact the Earth. The strength of this solution depends on the ability for ETIs to come to agreement, and establish/police treaties as part of a so-called ‘Galactic Club’. These activities are principally limited by the causal connectivity of a civilization to its neighbours at its inception, i.e. whether it comes to prominence being aware of other ETIs and any treaties or agreements in place. If even one civilization is not causally connected to the other members of a treaty, then they are free to operate beyond it and contact the Earth if wished, which makes the Zoo solution ‘soft’. We should therefore consider how likely this scenario is, as this will give us a sense of the Zoo solution's softness, or general validity. We implement a simple toy model of ETIs arising in a Galactic Habitable Zone, and calculate the properties of the groups of culturally connected civilizations established therein. We show that for most choices of civilization parameters, the number of culturally connected groups is >1, meaning that the Galaxy is composed of multiple Galactic Cliques rather than a single Galactic Club. We find in our models for a single Galactic Club to establish interstellar hegemony, the number of civilizations must be relatively large, the mean civilization lifetime must be several millions of years, and the inter-arrival time between civilizations must be a few million years or less.

We address the possibility that intelligent civilizations that destroy themselves could present signatures observable by humanity. Placing limits on the number of self-destroyed civilizations in the Milky Way has strong implications for the final three terms in Drake's Equation, and would allow us to identify which classes of solution to Fermi's Paradox fit with the evidence (or lack thereof). Using the Earth as an example, we consider a variety of scenarios in which humans could extinguish their own technological civilization. Each scenario presents some form of observable signature that could be probed by astronomical campaigns to detect and characterize extrasolar planetary systems. Some observables are unlikely to be detected at interstellar distances, but some scenarios are likely to produce significant changes in atmospheric composition that could be detected serendipitously with next-generation telescopes. In some cases, the timing of the observation would prove crucial to detection, as the decay of signatures is rapid compared with humanity's communication lifetime. In others, the signatures persist on far longer timescales.

Fermi's paradox is founded on the idea that one or more Galactic extraterrestrial civilizations (ETCs) existed long ago and sustained exploration for millions of years, but in spite of their advanced knowledge, they could not find a way to explore the Galaxy other than with fleets of starships or self replicating probes. Here, I question this second assumption: if advanced technology generally allows long-distance remote sensing, and if ETCs were motivated by gaining information rather than conquest or commerce, then such voyages would be unnecessary, thereby resolving Fermi's paradox.

This paper develops a detailed quantitative model which uses the Drake equation and an assumption of an average maximum radio broadcasting distance by an communicative civilization. Using this basis, it estimates the minimum civilization density for contact between two civilizations to be probable in a given volume of space under certain conditions, the amount of time it would take for a first contact, and the question of whether reciprocal contact is possible.