On the heels of a generation of scholarship on democratic transition and consolidation in postcommunist countries, and after several election cycles, relatively steady economic growth, and the accession of many countries in the region to NATO and the European Union, the theoretical concepts and assumptions derived from studies of mature democracies have increasingly been applied to the new democracies of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. One fine example is Regional Economic Voting in which Joshua A. Tucker effectively probes and refines the assumptions of economic voting in established democracies to suggest how variations in economic conditions have affected political support for postcommunist parties. In particular, Tucker explores whether—and under what conditions—traditional economic voting assumptions, that incumbent parties and certain types of parties (right-wing parties in established democracies) perform better if the economy is better, are supported in postcommunist cases.
This study makes a number of contributions to the field of comparative politics. First, it brings to front and center the relevance of context—in this case, the simultaneous political and economic transitions in Eastern Europe and Russia. Beginning with the standard hypotheses developed in the economic voting literature, Tucker considers two models for predicting election outcomes, the referendum model and the transitional identity model, and seeks to ascertain which model has stronger empirical support. The referendum model focuses on the governing status of parties, whether incumbent or opposition, and posits that incumbent parties will perform better when the economic conditions are favorable. The transitional identity model hinges on the type of party, which, in the postcommunist setting, cannot easily be dichotomized into right wing and left wing. Tucker, therefore, introduces the concepts of old regime and new regime parties. Old regime parties include not only “unreconstructed communists” parties that continue to identify with the communist ideology, but also “remade” communist parties, many of which resemble West European social democratic parties, and former “bloc parties” that aligned with the communists in “national fronts.” New regime parties are either those derived from communist-era opposition groups that initiated the democratic transition or those that emerged as new entities associated with the transition. This transitional identity model suggests that old regime parties are likely to perform better where economic conditions are worse, because they now look preferable to the new regime parties associated with the painful economic reforms.
The study then skillfully offers a number of conditional hypotheses to account for the particularities of postcommunism. These conditional hypotheses concern things such as the uncertainty that confronts voters in these new democracies, the complexity of a system where institutions are changing, and the variety of postcommunist parties and orientations—whether old regime parties are unreformed or reformed, or if new regime parties are consistent in their liberalizing orientation or populist leaning. Ultimately, the author finds more consistent support for the transitional identity model and its hypotheses, but he is careful to note why we may see less support for these hypotheses in the future. In particular, the point is made that although the transition from communism is the last major event to shape the political attitudes of the electorates in Eastern Europe and Russia, it is likely to fade in voters' memories and, perhaps, be replaced by another event or issue, such as European Union membership and its benefits.
Another contribution of the study is that it draws attention to an often overlooked level of analysis for comparative research, the subnational level. As the author notes, the economic voting literature largely ignores the relationship between regional variation in economic conditions and regional variation in the distribution of votes (p. 11). He has chosen to examine the regional level because it allows him to blend case study and general comparative analysis, facilitated by the fact that both economic and election data are available at the regional level. The author examines 20 elections across five cases—Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Russia. The result is a rich data set, the entirety of which is available at the Websites of the author and the publisher.
Although the arguments about economic voting in this book are convincing, the author might have mentioned alternatives to economic voting for explaining election outcomes in postcommunist cases. One alternative explanation might have to do with the relevance of past affiliations, or traditional party strongholds, especially when considering voting at the subnational level. The center-periphery relationships under communism left their mark on each of these countries not only in terms of economic development patterns, but also in terms of ideology. It may be that some regions are generally more sympathetic to old regime parties. Also, the organizational strength of parties may help to explain electoral outcomes, with some parties having more access to the media, more developed grassroots networks, or greater support of other relevant actors, such as the churches, interest groups, or nongovernment organizations.
Tucker's study was conducted just as regional self-government was introduced in 3 out of 5 of his cases (Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia). Though it is too early to tell if politics in these cases will be regionalized (that is, if regional parties will emerge, if established parties will organize regionally, or if regional identity will become salient to voters), we can explore whether any patterns in voting behavior are discernable. The availability and comparability of data at the regional level provides a fertile ground for further research.
Regional data has been readily available in Germany, which would be a fascinating application of Tucker's framework. It is the most regionalized country in Europe and comprises both an established democracy and a new, postcommunist democracy. Studies have examined voting patterns across the east-west divide in Germany (Stoess, 1997; Wessels, 1998), though not necessarily through the lens of economic voting theory. This would be an interesting testing ground for the conditional hypotheses of Tucker's study.
Regional Economic Voting is a valuable study, meticulously executed and thoroughly supported. It is highly recommended for scholars of new democracies, and not just postcommunist democracies. It would also be extremely useful for advanced undergraduate and graduate students as an example of careful conceptualization and operationalization.
