Since early 2021, food prices in Britain have increased by 30%. Using monthly microdata, researchers have found that frictions in the UK’s new trade relationship with the European Union (EU) play an important part in this inflation. The trade relationship is evolving, with further changes expected in 2024. This article establishes a framework for identifying trade-related inflation in close to real time. Using programming techniques, we collect daily prices of over 100,000 supermarket items, covering 80% of the UK grocery market. We identify 1,200 products from 12 countries with a protected designation of origin (PDO). This allows us to link price changes to individual EU economies. Addressing the predominance of EU PDOs, we employ a large language model to discern product origins from additional web-scraped data, thus broadening our analysis to cover over 67,000 products. Since August 2023, we find that prices for EU-originating food products have increased at a rate of 50% higher than domestically sourced products. This study presents a unique methodological approach to dissecting food sector inflation, which is well-positioned to be used in a policy setting, allowing us to assess the possible impact of impending nontariff barriers at the GB-EU border in 2024.

To be effective, central bankers must project expertise and an anti-inflation commitment. However, those attributes are usually male-coded, which may undermine female central bankers. We assess gender bias using a survey experiment fielded in Japan in September 2022, when, for the first time in decades, the Bank of Japan appeared to struggle with inflation. We exposed individuals to simplified Bank of Japan communication and randomly assigned attribution to male (Mr. Adachi) or female (Ms. Nakagawa) Policy Board members. Respondents trusted the Bank of Japan less and were more sceptical of its capacity to handle inflation when Ms. Nakagawa represented it.

This paper reviews two important design choices for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). First, how CBDC intermediaries should be compensated for their services. Second, how payments from traditional banks into CBDC wallets should be cleared. Both of these design choices have important implications for the financial stability of the banking system.

This article analyses the correlates of public confidence in the Bank of England (BoE) both at the aggregate and individual levels to answer the following two questions: What are the correlates of trust in the BoE? Is the inflation surge associated with a structural shift in attitudes towards the BoE? Data from the BoE’s Inflation Attitudes survey (2001–2023) suggest that although inflation performance and public trust seem associated at the aggregate level, at the individual level this correlation is weaker. Further analyses suggest some changes in the correlates of public confidence since the inflation surge.

We study the effects of professionals’ survey-based inflation expectations on inflation for a large number of 36 economies, using dynamic cross-country panel estimation of New-Keynesian Phillips curves. We find that inflation expectations have a significantly positive effect on inflation. We also find that the effect of inflation expectations on inflation is significantly larger when inflation is higher. This suggests that second-round effects via the effects of higher inflation expectations on inflation are more relevant in a high-inflation environment.

The end of free movement and the introduction of the post-Brexit migration system represent the most important changes to the UK migration system in half a century. Coinciding with the aftereffects of the pandemic, the result has been very large changes both to the numbers of those coming for work and study, and to their composition, both in terms of countries of origin and in the sectors and occupations of new migrants. It has also resulted in a political backlash, resulting in significant further changes to the system announced in December 2023. I discuss the evidence to date of the impact of recent migration trends on the UK economy and labour market, distinguishing between different sectors.

Several decades ago, Sig Prais concluded that the root cause of the UK’s poor industrial performance was the poor quality of education and training. In this lecture, I will make a related argument, focussing on the lack of opportunity in the United Kingdom for workers who have not succeeded in the formal education system and the long-lasting impacts this has on their economic, health and social wellbeing. I will highlight the importance of providing opportunities for continued training over a worker’s lifetime for appropriate skills that are valued in the workplace in order to achieve inclusive growth.

The prospects are considered of deploying batteries and fuel cells in order to reduce the carbon emissions from various modes of transport. It is proposed that the government has not done enough to advance these technologies and that Britain is lagging behind other countries. The adequacy of Britain’s future supplies of energy is called into question.

Last year saw yet another year of weather extremes. The Copernicus Climate Change Service run by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts on behalf of the European Commission (Copernicus, 2024) measured 2023 as being globally the warmest year since records began in 1850. This was by a large margin (0.17 per cent) over the previous record in 2016, with global surface air temperature at nearly 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. While last year’s observations embodied an El Niño effect, which every few years sees temperatures affected by warmer waters coming to the surface of the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, changes and anomalies consistently observed over the last few years across the globe are becoming more pronounced. What is commonly labelled “climate change” is turning into a global climate emergency. No economy or society are immune to its effects. Today, we see the global average temperature at over 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels, a rise that has been extraordinarily rapid on a planetary timescale, and one that has been primarily caused through our (humans) burning fossil fuels. Nearly a decade has passed since the United Nations’ Climate Change Conference in 2015, COP21, where 196 nations adopted The Paris Agreement – a legally binding international treaty on climate change. Its goal was to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and to pursue efforts “to limit the increase to 1.5°C”.

Climate change is a complex global issue that requires widespread understanding, support and collaboration for effective solutions. This research delves into the crucial role of communication in tackling climate change and reaching net-zero goals. Leveraging advanced machine learning techniques, we focus on 10 core climate change topics derived from social media conversations over time. This analysis underscores the importance of a holistic and interconnected approach, involving a diverse array of policies at local, national and global levels to combat climate change effectively and attain net-zero objectives. We offer key policy suggestions that can significantly contribute to this vital cause.

Offshore wind farms (OWF) are now in operation and increasingly under construction as scalable, sustainable energy sources. In fact OWFs are currently the cheapest form of new energy projects in Europe. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for OWF has fallen drastically due to decades of innovation facilitated by both taxpayer and private sector funding. This emerging industry is experiencing massive worldwide growth with the potential to accelerate the decarbonization of regional and the global economy as well as bring a reliable source of green hydrogen into commercial use, all with minimal disruption to ecosystems and impacts on biodiversity. This paper provides a historical perspective of wind energy harnessing and shows that wind turbines are the oldest, largest and one of the smartest machines. We also highlight the potential of offshore wind energy to provide new solutions to (a) meet clean energy demand for a growing world population, (b) improve energy security of nations through other downstream technologies such as production and storage of dispatchable fuel (such as green hydrogen battery storage) and (c) through supply complementarity improve resilience of nuclear power plants in high-seismic-activity areas. Offshore wind industry can also become a gold standard for future industries, and the paper provides insights into the new green economics and jobs and factories for the future. We show that environment-friendly regulation is driving innovations even further to enhance sustainability of OWF. Examples include material recycling, landfill ban on blade disposal and ecofriendly low-noise offshore construction to protect biodiversity.

Net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, the UK’s current target, requires bridging a dramatic energy transition and eliminating all other net sources of emissions while ensuring a just transition. Key components like renewable electricity generation and electric vehicles are well developed, but many issues remain. Public support for a green economy may wane if the economic costs are too high or seen as unfair. Therefore, although renewable energy is cheaper than fossil fuels, it is essential to maintain employment, real per capita growth and reduced inequality. Decarbonizing the UK economy requires an integrated sequential approach and need not be delayed while dealing with the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, energy crisis and resulting inflation.

Adam Smith promoted free banking—private, competitive, convertible banknotes. He also supported restrictions on banks. We study Smith’s views and the era in which they developed, suggesting his ‘regulations’ were a backstop against banks’ risks to depositors but primarily monetary stability. In modern parlance, Smith supported macroprudential regulations to underpin monetary stability, as did Friedman and Schwartz the US FDIC. We discuss why Smith’s vision for banking went unrealised. Bank regulation became microprudential and ran aground in 2008/2009. The prominence of macroprudential regulation now provides a chance to reorientate regulation to support monetary stability. Early signs are not promising.

For path-breaking insights on how prices can guide the efficient allocation of resources and how innovation and investment can spur economic growth, Adam Smith is justly renowned. He was, however, well aware of problems posed by market dominance—specifically in banking and, more generally, wherever getting to the scale that delivers increasing returns leads to monopolistic behaviour. For the historical record, we draw on the recent wide-ranging survey by Acemoglu and Johnson on how the benefits of innovation have been spread across society since the Industrial Revolution. We also consider these issues in the context of geo-political competition.

Adam Smith saw the division of labour and specialisation as the driver of ‘universal opulence’, a process limited by the scope of the market. He also believed that competition was essential to ensure growth benefited the public. Yet eventually there could be a trade-off between these two mechanisms. In today’s era of global production networks, the markets at certain links in supply chains may support just one specialised supplier; and in winner-take-all digital markets there is a single supplier even at global scale. When the scope of the market is global, there may be a trade-off between specialisation and competition.

A key insight from Adam Smith is that economists should base their conclusions about a monetary institution or policy on a careful study of the history of that institution or policy, a study that includes the experiences of other countries. To illustrate Smith’s reliance on financial history we cover five current monetary problems that have close analogies with problems that Smith discussed: (1) inflation, (2) banking panics, (3) public debt, (4) usury laws, (5) central bank digital currencies.

Duncan Black, like Adam Smith before him, was trained at, and taught at, the University of Glasgow. Like Smith, Black followed the Enlightenment in appreciating the importance of theory and of its empirical applications. Black sought to apply the ideas of a schedule of preferences and a conception of equilibrium, to politics, as Smith had done in economics. Black believed that his median voter theorem could generalize to a theory of politics, much as Smith’s contributions did for market economics. Black did not complete that generalization, but William Riker did offer a theory of institutional politics, designed to complete Black’s project.

This article reviews Adam Smith’s clearly articulated views about the desirability of free trade and his equally strong view on the necessity of sound institutions and ‘the tolerable administration of justice’ as key ingredients of successful economic management. It starts with Smith’s views on free trade and shows how pertinent they are to today’s high-level trade policy challenges. It then considers a more detailed day-to-day instrument of policy—the Trade Remedies Authority (TRA). Following Brexit, the TRA was created as an arms-length body for investigating cases for granting temporary import restrictions to specific products according to a reasonably well-defined objective process. The article demonstrates how, over the first 2 years of its life, the TRA has been reduced from a useful administrative instrument to a fig leaf for a political process for granting protection to petitioners. Unfortunately, this tendency to displace analytical approaches to policy by purely political ones can now be observed in many activities of UK governance.

Emissions are directly linked to economic output and consequently subject to business cycle fluctuations. The present study analyses the interactions between climate policies and business cycles through the lens of a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. We compare a static cap-and-trade policy with a dynamically adjusting policy in terms of macroeconomic stabilisation, welfare and emissions price dynamics. The results of the quantitative evaluation suggest that a constant policy leads to lower aggregate volatility but is associated with larger welfare costs. In contrast, under the dynamic policy emissions prices and labour markets display less variations.

This article is a response to a piece in this journal, by David Bartram, which questions the validity of a vast literature establishing consistently a U-shaped relationship between age and happiness. There are 618 published studies that find U-shapes in that relationship in 145 countries, and only a handful that do not. Of the 30 countries that Bartram (2023, National Institute Economic Review, 1–15) examines, he finds U-shapes in 18. We show compelling evidence of U-shapes in the remaining dozen countries. Supporting evidence of a U-shape is found in objective measures including deaths of despair, depression, stress and pain that are worst in midlife.