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TIME-SERIES MODEL WITH PERIODIC STOCHASTIC REGIME SWITCHING

Part II: Applications to 16th- and 17th-Century Grain Prices

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 March 2001

Catherine Bac
Affiliation:
DREES
Jean-MicheI Chevet
Affiliation:
INRA—HEDM
Eric Ghysels
Affiliation:
University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill and Centre Interuniversitaire de Recherche en Analyse des Organisations
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Abstract

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This paper provides a historical chronology of economic activity in 16th- and 17th-century France that is based on wheat price series in Paris and Toulouse. A stochastic regime-switching model enables us to benchmark eras and summarize the salient features of a development difficult to appraise in all its complexity. A new class of Markov regime-switching time-series models is introduced to allow for nontrivial interdependencies between different types of cycles that make the economy grow at an unsteady rate. With a predominantly agricultural cycle, we uncover a strongly periodic Markov switching scheme for recorded wheat prices from the grain markets of Paris and Toulouse. Besides the periodic nature of the Markov chain, we also study whether a common factor determined the state of the economy in Paris and Toulouse or whether each series moved independently.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© 2001 Cambridge University Press