Let ${\mathrm{d}} X(t) = -Y(t) \, {\mathrm{d}} t$, where Y(t) is a one-dimensional diffusion process, and let $\tau(x,y)$ be the first time the process (X(t), Y(t)), starting from (x, y), leaves a subset of the first quadrant. The problem of computing the probability $p(x,y)\,:\!=\, \mathbb{P}[X(\tau(x,y))=0]$ is considered. The Laplace transform of the function p(x, y) is obtained in important particular cases, and it is shown that the transform can at least be inverted numerically. Explicit expressions for the Laplace transform of $\mathbb{E}[\tau(x,y)]$ and of the moment-generating function of $\tau(x,y)$ can also be derived.

Consider the optimal control problem of leaving an interval (– a, a) in a limited playing time. In the discrete-time problem, a is a positive integer and the player's position is given by a simple random walk on the integers with initial position x. At each time instant, the player chooses a coin from a control set where the probability of returning heads depends on the current position and the remaining amount of playing time, and the player is betting a unit value on the toss of the coin: heads returning +1 and tails − 1. We discuss the optimal strategy for this discrete-time game. In the continuous-time problem the player chooses infinitesimal mean and infinitesimal variance parameters from a control set which may depend upon the player's position. The problem is to find optimal mean and variance parameters that maximize the probability of leaving the interval [— a, a] within a finite time T > 0.

In this paper we give a probabilistic interpretation for the function d(f), which has been proposed as a measure of fuzziness of a fuzzy set f. For this we construct random patterns which approximate the fuzzy set f and show that, for large n, the number of possible outcomes of the nth random pattern is approximately 2nd(f). We also give the best possible constant K in a more accurate approximation .

In this paper, we describe a class of Wiener functionals that are ‘indeterminate by their moments’, that is, whose distributions are not uniquely determined by their moments. In particular, it is proved that the integral of a geometric Brownian motion is indeterminate by its moments and, moreover, shown that previous proofs of this result are incorrect. The main result of this paper is based on geometric inequalities in Gauss space and on a generalization of the Krein criterion due to H. L. Pedersen.

We construct random fields with Pólya-type autocorrelation function and dampened Pólya cross-correlation function. The marginal distribution of the random fields may be taken as any infinitely divisible distribution with finite variance, and the random fields are fully characterized in terms of their joint characteristic function. This makes available a new class of non-Gaussian random fields with flexible correlation structure for use in modeling and estimation.

Signatures are useful in analyzing and evaluating coherent systems. However, their computation is a challenging problem, especially for complex coherent structures. In most cases the reliability of a binary coherent system can be linked to a tail probability associated with a properly defined waiting time random variable in a sequence of binary trials. In this paper we present a method for computing the minimal signature of a binary coherent system. Our method is based on matrix-geometric distributions. First, a proper matrix-geometric random variable corresponding to the system structure is found. Second, its probability generating function is obtained. Finally, the companion representation for the distribution of matrix-geometric distribution is used to obtain a matrix-based expression for the minimal signature of the coherent system. The results are also extended to a system with two types of components.

Based on the ratio of two block maxima, we propose a large sample test for the length of memory of a stationary symmetric α-stable discrete parameter random field. We show that the power function converges to 1 as the sample-size increases to ∞ under various classes of alternatives having longer memory in the sense of Samorodnitsky (2004). Ergodic theory of nonsingular ℤd-actions plays a very important role in the design and analysis of our large sample test.

In this paper we develop an explicit formula that allows us to compute the first k moments of the random count of a pattern in a multistate sequence generated by a Markov source. We derive efficient algorithms that allow us to deal with any pattern (low or high complexity) in any Markov model (homogeneous or not). We then apply these results to the distribution of DNA patterns in genomic sequences, and we show that moment-based developments (namely Edgeworth's expansion and Gram-Charlier type-B series) allow us to improve the reliability of common asymptotic approximations, such as Gaussian or Poisson approximations.

For given functions, g(x), h(x), F(x) and a constant, a, f(x) is said to be a solution of the optimal inventory equation if where f(y - z) = f(0) when z > y. (The same convention holds in similar equations below.) A method of deriving a solution to (1) is to define inductively a sequence of approximating functions, fn(x), by:

In this paper, we analyze a two-queue random time-limited Markov-modulated polling model. In the first part of the paper, we investigate the fluid version: fluid arrives at the two queues as two independent flows with deterministic rate. There is a single server that serves both queues at constant speeds. The server spends an exponentially distributed amount of time in each queue. After the completion of such a visit time to one queue, the server instantly switches to the other queue, i.e., there is no switch-over time.

For this model, we first derive the Laplace–Stieltjes transform (LST) of the stationary marginal fluid content/workload at each queue. Subsequently, we derive a functional equation for the LST of the two-dimensional workload distribution that leads to a Riemann–Hilbert boundary value problem (BVP). After taking a heavy-traffic limit, and restricting ourselves to the symmetric case, the BVP simplifies and can be solved explicitly.

In the second part of the paper, allowing for more general (Lévy) input processes and server switching policies, we investigate the transient process limit of the joint workload in heavy traffic. Again solving a BVP, we determine the stationary distribution of the limiting process. We show that, in the symmetric case, this distribution coincides with our earlier solution of the BVP, implying that in this case the two limits (stationarity and heavy traffic) commute.

In this article we investigate the minimal entropy martingale measure for continuous-time Markov chains. The conditions for absence of arbitrage and existence of the minimal entropy martingale measure are discussed. Under this measure, expressions for the transition intensities are obtained. Differential equations for the arbitrage-free price are derived.

A simple birth-death model of particle fluctuations is studied where at each discrete time a birth and/or death may occur. We show that if the probability of a birth does not depend on the number of particles present and if births and deaths are independent, then the times between successive deaths are independent geometrically distributed random variables, which is false in the general case. Since the above properties of the times between successive neuron firings have been observed in nerve cells, the model proposed in [2] obtains added credence.

The distribution of the sample quantiles of random processes is important for the pricing of some of the so-called financial ‘look-back' options. In this paper a representation of the distribution of the α-quantile of an additive renewal reward process is obtained as the sum of the supremum and the infimum of two rescaled independent copies of the process. This representation has already been proved for processes with stationary and independent increments. As an example, the distribution of the α-quantile of a randomly observed Brownian motion is obtained.

This paper deals with special cases of stochastic flowshop, no-wait, scheduling. n jobs have to be processed by m machines . The processing time of job Ji on machine Mj is an independent random variable Ti. It is possible to sequence the jobs so that , . At time 0 the realizations of the random variables Ti, (i are known. For m (m ≧ 2) machines it is proved that a special SEPT–LEPT sequence minimizes the expected schedule length; for two (m = 2) machines it is proved that the SEPT sequence minimizes the expected sum of completion times.

We introduce variance-optimal semi-static hedging strategies for a given contingent claim. To obtain a tractable formula for the expected squared hedging error and the optimal hedging strategy we use a Fourier approach in a multidimensional factor model. We apply the theory to set up a variance-optimal semi-static hedging strategy for a variance swap in the Heston model, which is affine, in the 3/2 model, which is not, and in a market model including jumps.

We will propose an alternative condition for stochastic domination. This condition differs in an essential way from the strong likelihood ratio property. We also show an example which satisfies the new condition, but does not satisfy the strong likelihood ratio property.

We consider a random walker on a d-regular graph. Starting from a fixed vertex, the first step is a unit step in any one of the d directions, with common probability 1/d for each one. At any later step, the random walker moves in any one of the directions, with probability q for a reversal of direction and probability p for any other direction. This model was introduced and first studied by Gillis (1955), in the case when the graph is a d-dimensional square lattice. We prove that the Gillis random walk on a d-regular graph is recurrent if and only if the simple random walk on the graph is recurrent. The Green function of the Gillis random walk will be also given, in terms of that of the simple random walk.

It is shown that if parameters occurring linearly in the transition intensity of a Markov process are replaced by their respective ‘Bayesian estimates' then the new process thus generated has an equilibrium distribution which is a mixture (over parameter values) of the original parametrised equilibrium distribution.

One effectively then has an extra state dependence in that one selects from a given class of transition rules those rules which are most consistent with the value of current state. The effect of this is thus to preserve the status quo, in that unlikely transitions are made even less likely. By this means one can construct processes which show several distinct and metastable modes of behaviour, and which can serve as models for memory devices.

In this paper we consider the degree-wise effect of a second step for a random walk on a graph. We prove that under the configuration model, for any fixed degree sequence the probability of exceeding a given degree threshold is smaller after two steps than after one. This builds on recent work of Kramer et al. (2016) regarding the friendship paradox under random walks.

Nash's generalization of Gittins’ classic index result to so-called generalized bandit problems (GBPs) in which returns are dependent on the states of all arms (not only the one which is pulled) has proved important for applications. The index theory for special cases of this model in which all indices are positive is straightforward. However, this is not a natural restriction in practice. An earlier proposal for the general case did not yield satisfactory index-based suboptimality bounds for policies — a central feature of classical Gittins index theory. We develop such bounds via a notion of duality for GBPs which is of independent interest. The index which emerges naturally from this analysis is the reciprocal of the one proposed by Nash.