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Japan and U.S. Nuclear Arms Control and Disarmament Policy Under the Trump Administration: A Look into the Cloudy Crystal Ball
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 14 March 2025
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Shifts in U.S. nuclear policies under the Trump Administration may affect Japan in significant ways. The demands of formulating a coherent set of policies and implementing them, and dealing with pushback from other states and domestic opposition make it hard to anticipate exactly what U.S. nuclear policies may look like under Donald Trump. President Trump, however, has been outspoken on nuclear policy issues, and even though the statements are often contradictory, they offer some insight. These statements form the basis of this analysis.
This essay looks at how United States nuclear arms control and disarmament policies may change over the next few years. It begins by looking at Trump's views on nuclear arms control issues, including the New START agreement and U.S. plans for modernization, the possibility of new nuclear weapons and a resumption of nuclear testing. It then looks at Trump's views on U.S. nuclear posture, including the question of the first use of nuclear weapons. The essay also examines how the President has viewed the challenge of nuclear proliferation, especially the case of North Korea and U.S. policy toward Japan. Finally, with talks to begin in March 2017 on a UN mandated treaty to ban nuclear weapons, the essay looks at the abolition of nuclear weapons.
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References
Notes
1 Article VI of the Treaty On The Non-Proliferation Of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), see here.
2 Article XIV of New START specifies: “This Treaty shall remain in force for 10 years unless it is superseded earlier by a subsequent agreement on the reduction and limitation of strategic offensive arms. […] If the Parties decide to extend this Treaty, it will be extended for a period of no more than five years unless it is superseded earlier by a subsequent agreement on the reduction and limitation of strategic offensive arms.” Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms.
3 Remarks by President Obama at the Brandenburg Gate, Berlin, Germany, June 19, 2013.
4 John Isaacs, Clinton-Putin Summit Meeting: A Summit Of “Might-Have-Beens,” Council for a Livable World, April 25, 2000,
5 Remarks by the Vice President on Nuclear Security, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, DC, January 12, 2017.
6 Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, “Russian Nuclear Forces, 2017,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 73 (2), 2017.
7 Transcript of Interview with Donald Trump, Times of London, January 16, 2017.
8 “Trump wants to make sure U.S. nuclear arsenal at ‘top of the pack’,” Reuters, February 24, 2017.
9 Statement by Minister for Foreign Affairs of Japan on the Approval of the New START Treaty by the Federation Council of the Russian Federation, January 26, 2011.
10 Li Bin, “Chinese Thinking On Nuclear Weapons,” Arms Control Today, December 2015.
11 Gerry Mullany and Chris Buckley, “China Warns of Arms Race After U.S. Deploys Missile Defense in South Korea,” New York Times, March 7, 2017.
12 David Sanger and Bill Broad, “Trump Inherits a Secret Cyberwar Against North Korean Missiles,” New York Times, March 4, 2017.
13 Presidential Memorandum, “Rebuilding the U.S. Armed Forces,” January 27, 2017.
14 The existing sites are Fort Greely, Alaska (26 interceptors with plans to increase to 40) and Vandenberg California (4 interceptors).
15 Ryo Ibara, “Japan eyes 3rd prong in missile defense with THAAD system,” Asahi Shimbun, January 14, 2017.
16 Transcript: Donald Trump Expounds on His Foreign Policy Views, New York Times, March 26, 2016.
17 Transcript: Donald Trump Expounds on His Foreign Policy Views, New York Times, March 26, 2016,
18 Debate moderated by Lester Holt, September 26, 2016; for a discussion, see Zack Beauchamp, “Donald Trump's very Confusing Thoughts on Nuclear Weapons, Explained,” Vox.
19 Carrie Dann, “Donald Trump on Nukes: ‘Let It Be an Arms Race’,” December 23, 2016.
20 “Trump wants to make sure U.S. nuclear arsenal at ‘top of the pack’,” op. cit.
21 See here.
22 Office of Management and Budget, “America First: A Budget Blueprint to Make America Great Again,” 16 March 16, 2017.
23 America First: A Budget Blueprint to Make America Great Again, Office of Management and Budget, Washington, DC, March 2017.
24 China and France conducted a smaller number of tests until 1996. Since then, only India, Pakistan, and North Korea have tested nuclear weapons.
25 “Rick Perry, as Energy Secretary, May Be Pressed to Resume Nuclear Tests,” New York Times, December 27, 2016.
26 R. Vartabedian and W. J. Hennigan, “New Nuclear Weapons Needed, Many Experts Say, Pointing to Aged Arsenal,” Los Angeles Times, November 29, 2014.
27 J. D. Crouch (Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Policy), Special Briefing on the Nuclear Posture Review, Department of Defense Press Briefing, January 9, 2002.
28 Geoff Brumfiel, “Bush Buries US Bunker-Buster Project,” Nature, 38, 139, 10 November 2005
29 Eric Schmitt, Helene Cooper and C. J. Chivers, “A Giant U.S. Bomb Carries an Even Bigger Message,” New York Times, April 14, 2017.
30 Presidential Memorandum, “Rebuilding the U.S. Armed Forces,” January 27, 2017.
31 President Barack Obama, Foreign Policy Agenda, January 2009.
32 Nuclear Posture Review Report, U.S. Department of Defense, Washington, DC, April 2010.
33 Adopting Resolution 2310 (2016), Security Council Calls for Early Entry into Force of Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, Ratification by Eight Annex 2 Hold-Out States, September 23, 2016.
34 Joint Statement on the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty by the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty Nuclear-Weapon States, Washington, DC, September 15, 2016.
35 The first meeting of the “Friends of CTBT” was in 2002 with Japan, Australia, and the Netherlands as co-chairs, see here.
36 Nuclear Posture Review Report, U.S. Department of Defense, Washington, DC, April 2010.
37 Provisional translation of Foreign Minister Okada's letter to Hillary Clinton, provided by the office of Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada, December 24, 2009.
38 “204 Japanese legislators call on President Obama to adopt ‘sole purpose’ doctrine,” Parliamentarians for Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament, February 19, 2010.
39 Remarks by the Vice President on Nuclear Security, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, DC, January 12, 2017.
40 Paul Sonne, Gordon Lubold, and Carol E. Lee, “‘No First Use’ Nuclear Policy Proposal Assailed by U.S. Cabinet Officials, Allies,” Wall Street Journal, August 12, 2016.
41 General James N. Mattis, Senate Armed Services Committee, “Global Challenges and U.S. National Security Strategy,” January 27, 2015.
42 Transcript: Donald Trump Expounds on His Foreign Policy Views, New York Times, March 26, 2016.
43 Chris Heath, “This Donald Trump Interview is the Best. You're Gonna Love it,” GQ, November 23, 2015.
44 “MSNBC Town Hall with Donald Trump Moderated by Chris Matthews,” MSNBC, March 30, 2016.
45 Transcript: Donald Trump Expounds on His Foreign Policy Views, New York Times, March 26, 2016.
46 President Donald Trump's news conference, CNN, February 16, 2017.
47 Remarks by President Trump at the Conservative Political Action Conference, February 24, 2017.
48 Donald Trump, “On the Record,” Fox, January 7, 2016.
49 Rex W. Tillerson, Secretary of State, Remarks with Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se Before Their Meeting, Seoul, Republic of Korea, March 17, 2017.
50 Anthony Blinken, “Will Rex Tillerson Pass North Korea's Nuclear Test?,” New York Times, March 15, 2017.
51 Maxwell Tani, “Donald Trump on North Korean Dictator Kim Jong Un: 'If He Came Here, I'd Accept Him,” Business Insider, June 15, 2016; Steve Holland and Emily Flitter, “Trump Would Talk to North Korea's Kim, Renegotiate Climate Treaty,” Reuters, May 17, 2016.
52 Presidential Memorandum, “Rebuilding the U.S. Armed Forces,” January 27, 2017.
53 Transcript: Donald Trump Expounds on His Foreign Policy Views, New York Times, March 26, 2016.
54 President Donald Trump's news conference, CNN, February 16, 2017.
55 Donald Trump Expounds on His Foreign Policy Views, op. cit.
56 Masafumi Takubo and Frank von Hippel, “Ending Reprocessing in Japan: An Alternative Approach to Managing Japan's Spent Nuclear Fuel and Separated Plutonium,” International Panel on Fissile Material, November 2013.
57 “Abe explicit in call for amendment to Constitution's Article 9,” Japan Times, February 3, 2016.
58 For example, Japan could help develop techniques of nuclear archaeology to establish and independently verify how much fissile material was made in nuclear weapon states. This technique could not only be used to verify more recently produced fissile-material stocks, such as in North Korea, but also provide confidence in declared historic production in those weapon states that have accumulated much larger stockpiles during the Cold War.
59 Taking Forward Multilateral Nuclear Disarmament Negotiations, First Committee, United Nations General Assembly, A/C.1/71/L.41, October 2016.
60 “US pressured NATO states to vote no to a ban,” ICAN, November 1, 2016, The leaked US memo to NATO allies is here.
61 Remarks by President Obama and Prime Minister Abe of Japan at Hiroshima Peace Memorial, Hiroshima, Japan, May 27, 2016.
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