¹ Overviews of past exercises in the ROK are found in: R. Collins, “A Brief History of the US-ROK Combined Military Exercises,” 38 North, February 26, 2014, see here. John Chu, Military Exercises in Korea: A Provocation or a Deterrent to War, Naval War College Paper, February 2006, J. Farrell, Team Spirit: A Case Study on the Value of Military Exercises as a Show of Force in the Aftermath of Combat Operations, Air Force Research Institute, Maxwell Air Force Base, 2009, published in Air and Space Power Journal, Fall 2009, pp. 95-106 Vito D'Orazio, “War Games: North Korea's Reaction to US and South Korean Military Exercises,” Journal of East Asian Studies, 12:2, pp. 275-294 see here.

² Jack Kim, Ju-min Park in Seoul and Phil Stewart, “South Korea, U.S. begin large-scale annual drills amid North Korea tension,” Reuters, March 1, 2017

³ E. Shim, “Strategy to ‘destroy’ North Korea missiles to be applied during exercises,” UPI, February 7, 2017

⁴ C. Lee, A. Gale, “White House Explores Options, Including Use of Military Force, To Counter North Korean Threat, The strategy review comes as recent events have strained stability in Asia,” Wall Street Journal, March 1, 2017.

⁵ Reuters, “Plans for first post-Trump US contact with North Korea cancelled, says report,” The Guardian, February 25, 2017.

⁶ Chad O'Carroll, Dagyum Ji, “Multilateral meeting over North Korean sanctions canceled by U.S.: sources,” NK News, March 8, 2017.

⁷ KCNA, “Minju Joson Points out Root Cause of Escalated Tension in Northeast Asia,” February 12, 2017.

⁸ Reuters, “China rejects North Korea Coal shipment,” February 15, 2017.

⁹ J. Kim, “North Korea raps old ally China after China's ban on coal,” Reuters, February 23, 2017.

¹⁰ J. Perlez, “Is China Pushing Trump to Talk to North Korea?” New York Times, February 21, 2017.

¹¹ G. Mullany, M. Gordon, “U.S. Starts Deploying Thaad Antimissile System in South Korea, After North's Tests,” New York Times, March 6, 2017.

¹² E. Shim, “U.S., South Korea to deploy THAAD by July, report says,” UPI, January 20, 2017.

¹³ Ben Blanchard, Ju-min Park, “China reacts with anger, threats after South Korean missile defense decision,” Reuters, February 28, 2017.

¹⁴ “Foreign Minister Wang Yi Meets the Press,” March 8, 2017; G. Mullany, C. Buckley, “China Warns of Arms Race After U.S. Deploys Missile Defense in South Korea,” New York Times, March 7, 2017.

¹⁵ Na Young Lee, Andy Lim, Victor Cha, “Exactly How Provocative are U.S.-ROK Military Exercises,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, March 24, 2016.

¹⁶ C. Wong, “Military offers details on THAAD during tour,” Guam Daily Post, November 5, 2016.

¹⁷ Tactically smart, strategically stupid“ is a phrase that I reserve for especially egregious departures from strategic rationality. Over three decades, I have used this phrase only three times, in 1994 referring to North Korea's eviction of IAEA inspectors when pulling spent fuel rods from the reactor; in 2002, referring to Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization's decision to suspend heavy fuel oil shipments to North Korea, and in 2013, referring to deployment of strategic bombers to Korea during the 2013 exercises.

¹⁸ P. Hayes, Chung-in Moon, “The North Korean Nuclear Multilemma: Options to Break the Nuclear Deadlock in Northeast Asia,” Korea Observer, 47:4, 2016, pp. 699-719, see here.

¹⁹ J. Ryall, “North Korea military exercise sees special forces assault mock-up of Seoul's Blue House,” The Telegraph, December 12, 2016.

²⁰ J. Conley, “Nuclear Command and Control in the Twenty-first Century: Trends, Disparities, and the Impact on Stability,” in O. Price, J. Mackby, Debating 21^st Century Nuclear Issues, CSIS, 2007, pp. 226-250 Virginia Tech Applied Research Corporation, Nuclear Command, Control, and Stability Framework, December 29, 2016

²¹ G. Barrass, “Able Archer 83: What Were the Soviets Thinking?” Survival, 58:6, November 21, 2016, p. 23

²² An example of what North Koreans may be reading during the exercises: “BREAKING: U.S. Scrambles 3 Nuclear Command-And-Control ”E6B“ Aircraft — No ”Drills“ Scheduled according to USSTRATCOM”, October 4, 2016

²³ R. Windrem, W. Arkin, “U.S. Flexes Its Military Muscle Off China,” NBC News, February 24, 2017 The USS Vinson's Facebook page denies current explanations that: “Loose Lips Sink Ships! ANY discussion or speculation of the ship's location or anticipated inport dates before they're officially [sic] released may result in revocation of access to this page. Remember, the bad guys DO follow our facebook page too.”

²⁴ C. Diamond, “C-130J Super Hercules arrives at Yokota Air Base,” Air Force Times, March 6, 2017

²⁵ Associated Press, “Source: U.S. delays missile test,” April 6, 2013

²⁶ Associated Press, “California missile launch: Did you see the bright flash?” February 9, 2017

²⁷ J. Daniels, “FCET Success: SSBN Launches Fleet Ballistic Missiles,” US Navy Strategic Systems Programs Public Affairs, February 16, 2017

²⁸ Ju-min Park, Kaori Kaneko, “North Korea fires four ballistic missiles into sea near Japan,” Reuters, March 6, 2017

²⁹ For example: Choe Sang-Jun, “North Korea Tests Five Missiles,” New York Times, February 8, 2015

³⁰ I am indebted to Roger Cavazos for pointing out the common pattern between the US and North Korean missile tests.

³¹ Fifield, “North Korea says it was practicing to hit U.S. military bases in Japan with missiles,” Washington Post, March 6, 2017

³² David Alexander, “Russia, North Korea, Reuters”, February 25, 2016

³³ R. Blackwill, J. Legro, “Constraining Ground Force Exercises of NATO and the Warsaw Pact,” International Security, 14:3, Winter 1989/90, pp. 68-98

³⁴ As occurred in June 2016 ROK exercises; see Jung-ho Park, “Kim Jong-Il photos used as South Korean target practice, Pyongyang vows military action, believes only way to settle differences is ‘by force of arms‘”, Associated Press, June 3, 2011

³⁵ As occurred in 2016 joint exercises; see A. Fifield, “In drills, U.S., South Korea practice striking North's nuclear plants, leaders,” Washington Post, March 7, 2016