Published online by Cambridge University Press: 03 December 2009
Previous chapters suggest that party strategy when emphasizing ideological or populist appeals plays a vital role in determining the electoral fortunes of the contemporary radical right, within institutional constraints. Yet the cross-national survey evidence considered so far, while essential for constructing a picture of the factors associated with individual-level voting behavior and the outcome of specific contests, cannot demonstrate the conditions necessary for sustained radical right success over a series of elections. Fringe and minor electoral parties often remain fragile and unstable organizations, vulnerable to unexpected shocks caused by internal organizational splits, difficult leadership transitions, factional rivalries, or sudden scandals. The history of the radical right is littered with short-lived flash parties, exemplified by the Poujadist movement in France, the Reform Party in the United States, and Lijst Pym Fortuyn in the Netherlands. Such parties can surge into the headlines on a tidal wave of public protest, to the consternation of many commentators, gaining seats in ‘deviating’ elections, but they can equally suddenly fall back into obscurity when circumstances change. Without ballast, they bob in the wake of government and opposition popularity. Minor parties can also experience a precipitate rise and an equally sudden decline. The Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs became part of the ÖVP coalition government in spring 2000, for example, with the support of one in four voters, but their share of the popular vote plummeted to just 10% four years later.
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