This textbook explains the basic ideas of subjective probability and shows how subjective probabilities must obey the usual rules of probability to ensure coherency. It defines the likelihood function, prior distributions and posterior distributions. It explains how posterior distributions are the basis for inference and explores their basic properties. Various methods of specifying prior distributions are considered, with special emphasis on subject-matter considerations and exchange ability. The regression model is examined to show how analytical methods may fail in the…
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Online publication date: 18 February 2019
Online publication date: 05 June 2012
Hardback publication date: 09 May 2005