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Trauma and Turnout: The Political Consequences of Traumatic Events

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 December 2022

WAYDE Z. C. MARSH Open the ORCID record for WAYDE Z. C. MARSH [Opens in a new window]
WAYDE Z. C. MARSH*
Affiliation:
Washington University in St. Louis, United States
*
Wayde Z. C. Marsh, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Weidenbaum Center on the Economy, Government, and Public Policy and the Department of Political Science, Washington University in St. Louis, United States, marsh@wustl.edu.
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Abstract

How do traumatic experiences shape individuals’ political behavior? Political scientists have investigated the behavioral changes caused by natural disasters and terrorist attacks, but no work to date has investigated the political consequences of such events using the framework of psychological trauma. In this study, I develop a theory of posttraumatic political response that explains how traumatic events influence voter turnout. To test this theory, I identify the effects of three different types of traumatic events: Black church arson attacks, mass shootings, and natural disasters. I find that a traumatic event decreases turnout in the next presidential election by 0.5–3.7 percentage points, but Black social identity conditions this effect—church arsons and Hurricane Katrina mobilize Black voters. Finally, I find that closer temporal proximity to an election increases the likelihood of a mobilizing effect.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 117 , Issue 3 , August 2023 , pp. 1036 - 1052
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2022. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association

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