Because depressive illness is recurrent, recurrence prevention should be a mainstay for reducing its burden on society. One way to reach this goal is to identify malleable risk factors. The ability to attenuate sadness/dysphoria (mood repair) and parasympathetic nervous system functioning, indexed as respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA), are impaired during depression and after it has remitted. The present study therefore tested the hypothesis that these two constructs also may mirror risk factors for a recurrent major depressive episode (MDE).

At time 1 (T1), 178 adolescents, whose last MDE had remitted, and their parents, reported on depression and mood repair; youths’ RSA at rest and in response to sad mood induction also were assessed. MDE recurrence was monitored until time 2 (T2) up to 2 years later. Mood repair at T1 (modeled as a latent construct), and resting RSA and RSA response to sadness induction (RSA profile), served to predict onset of first recurrent MDE by T2.

Consistent with expectations, maladaptive mood repair predicted recurrent MDE, above and beyond T1 depression symptoms. Further, atypical RSA profiles at T1 were associated with high levels of maladaptive mood repair, which, in turn, predicted increased risk of recurrent MDE. Thus, maladaptive mood repair mediated the effects of atypical RSA on risk of MDE recurrence.

This study documented that a combination of behavioral and physiological risk factors predicted MDE recurrence in a previously clinically referred sample of adolescents with depression histories. Because mood repair and RSA are malleable, both could be targeted for modification to reduce the risk of recurrent depression in youths.

Women's vulnerability for a first lifetime-onset of major depressive disorder (MDD) during midlife is substantial. It is unclear whether risk factors differ for first lifetime-onset and recurrent MDD. Identifying these risk factors can provide more focused depression screening and earlier intervention. This study aims to evaluate whether lifetime psychiatric and health histories, personality traits, menopausal status and factors that vary over time, e.g. symptoms, are independent risk factors for first-onset or recurrent MDD across 13 annual follow-ups.

Four hundred and forty-three women, aged 42–52 years, enrolled in the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation in Pittsburgh and participated in the Mental Health Study. Psychiatric interviews obtained information on lifetime psychiatric disorders at baseline and on occurrences of MDD episodes annually. Psychosocial and health-related data were collected annually. Cox multivariable analyses were conducted separately for women with and without a MDD history at baseline.

Women without lifetime MDD at baseline had a lower risk of developing MDD during midlife than those with a prior MDD history (28% v. 59%) and their risk profiles differed. Health conditions prior to baseline and during follow-ups perception of functioning (ps < 0.05) and vasomotor symptoms (VMS) (p = 0.08) were risk factors for first lifetime-onset MDD. Being peri- and post-menopausal, psychological symptoms and a prior anxiety disorder were predominant risk factors for MDD recurrence.

The menopausal transition warrants attention as a period of vulnerability to MDD recurrence, while health factors and VMS should be considered important risk factors for first lifetime-onset of MDD during midlife.