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2 results

  • 2 - The Story of Polling in 21/2 Fiascos

  • from Part I - Polling in Context
  • Michael A. Bailey, Georgetown University, Washington DC
  • Book:
    Polling at a Crossroads
    Published online:
    29 February 2024
    Print publication:
    07 March 2024, pp 23-46

  • Summary

    This chapter uses history of polling to explain how pollsters have dealt with challenges of nonresponse. It tells the tale of three polling paradigms: large-scale polling, quota sampling, and random sampling. The first two paradigms came crashing down after pollsters made poor predictions for presidential elections. The third paradigm remains vibrant intellectually, but is increasingly difficult to implement. We do not yet know if the bad polling predictions in 2016 and 2020 will push the field to a new paradigm, but certainly they raised doubts about the current state of the field.

Target Estimation and Adjustment Weighting for Survey Nonresponse and Sampling Bias

Target Estimation and Adjustment Weighting for Survey Nonresponse and Sampling Bias
  • Devin Caughey, Adam J. Berinsky, Sara Chatfield, Erin Hartman, Eric Schickler, Jasjeet S. Sekhon
  • Published online:
    29 September 2020
    Print publication:
    22 October 2020
  • We elaborate a general workflow of weighting-based survey inference, decomposing it into two main tasks. The first is the estimation of population targets from one or more sources of auxiliary information. The second is the construction of weights that calibrate the survey sample to the population targets. We emphasize that these tasks are predicated on models of the measurement, sampling, and nonresponse process whose assumptions cannot be fully tested. After describing this workflow in abstract terms, we then describe in detail how it can be applied to the analysis of historical and contemporary opinion polls. We also discuss extensions of the basic workflow, particularly inference for causal quantities and multilevel regression and poststratification.