In this article, we use a three-country macroeconomic model of trade, in which we allow for the presence of labour market frictions and heterogeneous firms, to analyse the effects of Brexit on UK productivity. We find that, under the Trade and Cooperation Agreement, UK GDP would have been expected to fall by approximately 7.5% in 2021, that is, as soon as the United Kingdom exited the European Union. Our model suggests that UK GDP would then recover, rising back to a long-run level around 4% below where it would have been had Brexit not happened. This fall in GDP is driven by the negative productivity effects of the implied increase in the costs of trading between the United Kingdom and European Union. Specifically, the increase in trading costs will lead to fewer, higher-productivity, UK firms exporting and reduced competition from EU firms in the UK domestic market allows more ‘low productivity’ firms to remain in the market.

Relying upon an original (country-sector-year) measure of robotic capital ($RK$), we investigate the degree of complementarity/substitutability between robots and workers at different skill levels. We employ nonparametric methods to estimate elasticity of substitution patterns between $RK$ and skilled/unskilled labor over the period 1995–2009. We show that: i) on average, $RK$ exhibits less substitutability with skilled workers compared to unskilled workers, indicating a phenomenon of “RK-Skill complementarity”. This pattern holds in a global context characterized by significant heterogeneity; ii) the dynamic of “RK-Skill complementarity” has increased since the early 2000s; iii) the observed strengthening is more prominent in OECD countries, as opposed to non-OECD countries, and in the Manufacturing sector, compared to non-Manufacturing industries.

Teenage childbearing is a common incident in developed countries. However, teenage births are much more likely in the USA than in any other industrialized country. Most of these births are delivered by female teenagers from low-income families. The hypothesis put forward here is that the welfare state (a set of redistributive institutions) has a significant influence on teenage childbearing behavior. We develop an economic theory of parental investments and the risky sexual behavior of teenagers. The model is estimated to fit stylized facts about income inequality, intergenerational mobility, and the sexual behavior of teenagers in the USA. The welfare state institutions are introduced via tax and public education expenditure functions derived from US data. In a quantitative experiment, we impose Norwegian taxes and education spending in the economic environment. The Norwegian welfare state institutions go a long way in explaining the differences in teenage birth rates between the USA and Norway.

This paper studies the process of labour market formation in the tourism industry in Spain. Results show that tourism regions diverged in their capacity to attract local labour, a factor that led to different compositions of the workforce. In the most dynamic regions, circular migration became a key factor as a result of housing shortages, seasonality and labour policy. Tourism agents promoted these flows by different mechanisms such as recruitment at origin and temporary accommodation. Migration benefited growth of firms, natives' upward mobility and migrants' accumulation of capital. However, inequality in the regional labour market and host society increased.

Existing empirical literature provides converging evidence that selective emigration enhances human capital accumulation in the world's poorest countries. However, the within-country distribution of such brain gain effects has received limited attention. Focusing on Senegal, we provide evidence that the brain gain mechanism primarily benefits the wealthiest regions that are internationally connected and have better access to education. Conversely, human capital responses are negligible in regions lacking international connectivity, and even negative in better connected regions with inadequate educational opportunities. These results extend to internal migration, implying that highly vulnerable populations are trapped in the least developed areas.

The present study discusses the current wage situation in India and the need for living wages as workers and employees grapple with the cost of living crisis. A case study of two districts of Madhya Pradesh (MP) state is presented to demonstrate how the living wage benchmarks based on the Anker Methodology compare with existing minimum wage fixations and other development indicators. The living wage benchmarking is based on field surveys conducted in Ratlam and Chhindwara districts in October–December 2021, and a rigorous analysis of nationally representative consumption and expenditure surveys conducted by the National Sample Survey Organisation and the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy. Our living wage estimates are 1.8 times the minimum wages for agricultural labourers and 43% more than those earned by non-agricultural unskilled labourers. Moreover, the actual wages reported are less than half of the estimated living wages, indicating that the current incomes and wages for workers and farmers of rural MP are far from adequate to lead a decent life.

This paper focuses on the state of precarious work in Spain: Are all those who work as self-employed persons and interns truly operating under those descriptions, or are many of them employees so precariously engaged that they have no labour contracts? If so, how has this come to pass? Why is it increasingly happening? This paper raises some answers based on the Marxist approach. We link employment instability to increased exploitation of the Spanish labour force. This trend is a reaction by capital to low rates of profit and the implementation of particular governmental economic policies implemented to meet the demands of the European Union. Due to the precariousness of work, prospects for achieving a stable and autonomous life for a large cohort of Spain’s working youth are seriously threatened.

The retirement of old workers increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, and health concerns are considered to be a critical factor. To understand the effect of pure health concerns during the pandemic, we analyze the impact of the aggregate health shock on retirement decisions using a life cycle model. The aggregate health shock changes the economy from the normal state to the pandemic state, where the probability of adverse idiosyncratic health shock increases, especially if agents are working. Simulation results suggest that the shock accelerates the retirement of agents aged over 60. The increase in retirement is significant even though the shock is expected to be temporary. Also, the effect hinges on the assumption that working poses a greater risk of receiving a negative health shock than retiring. Even accounting for the large income and wealth changes that US households experienced in 2020, a counterfactual experiment suggests that the aggregate health shock plays a prominent role in increasing retirement.

A number of reports have shown that workers with certain characteristics are disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Since these characteristics are associated with vulnerable workers, we hypothesise that the income distribution in the pandemic era will be polarised compared to the pre-pandemic period. This article compares the pre-COVID income distribution (February 2020) with the one that prevailed just after the hard lockdown (April 2020). Consistent with the hypothesis, the result shows evidence of polarisation. Disaggregating the analysis by worker characteristics, we find that the polarisation was stronger in vulnerable groups. Our decomposition result suggests that, apart from job losses, returns to gender and job characteristics explain the location and shape differences in the COVID-19 era income distribution. Although this analysis only looks at the short-term effect of the pandemic on income distribution, the result suggests that the structure of labour markets in developing countries is not conducive to a future of work where disruptions (or pandemics) may become more frequent.

The aim of this study is to examine whether the prevalent and fairly long unemployment spell of young Macedonians, Serbians and Montenegrins early in their career has negative effects on their subsequent labour-market performance: the so-called employment scarring. We first model unemployment spell as a function of individual and household characteristics and work attitudes and preferences using a discrete-time duration method. Then, we estimate the survival probabilities to examine the potential existence of employment scarring. The results provide some evidence for the potential presence of employment scarring in the three countries. The scars are largest in Serbia for all durations of the unemployment spell followed by Macedonia; they are weakest in Montenegro.

Eurozone economies were the most adversely affected by the Global Financial Crisis, with forecast macroeconomic outcomes still highly uncertain. This article argues first that the Eurozone policy framework can be viewed as neo-liberalism overlaid with policy constraints associated with a mis-specified Optimum Currency Area. We are critical of this framework since it is incompatible with the policy sovereignty that is experienced, if not utilised, by sovereign economies such as the USA, UK and Australia. Second, recent and proposed policy reforms which generally lie within the constraints of the Eurozone framework are examined. We conclude that these policies are piecemeal and fail to restore policy sovereignty, which ultimately requires that member countries exit the Eurozone. Key issues associated with such an exit are briefly discussed.

This study applies a methodology used by De Henau and Himmelweit (2013) to study resource allocation in Australian mixed-sex couple households. Using 18 waves of data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey and by means of fixed effects estimations, the study identifies how men’s and women’s contributions via paid and unpaid work influences their satisfaction with the financial situation (SWFS) within households. Employment status is used to proxy each partner’s contribution to household resources. The results reveal that paid contributions through full-time employment have a strong role in determining SWFS. This is a source of gender difference because Australian men are much more likely to be engaged in full-time employment than women. Most often, for both men and women, unpaid contributions to household resources (proxied by less than full-time employment) has a detrimental effect on their own SWFS, but smaller effects on their partner’s SWFS. These results imply that gender asymmetry in paid and unpaid contributions to household resources contributes to the reproduction of gender inequalities within Australian households. The results add external validity to the relevance of De Henau and Himmelweit’s (2013) analysis of these issues.

Thirty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, this article re-assesses ‘post-communist’ transformation in the Baltic countries from the perspective of labour. The argument is based on a historical materialist approach focusing on the social relations of production as a starting point. It is contended that the uneven and combined unfolding of ‘post-communist’ transformation has subjected Baltic labour to doubly constituted exploitation processes. First, workers in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have suffered from extreme neoliberal restructuring of economic and employment relations at home. Second, migrant workers from Central and Eastern Europe in general, trying to escape exploitation at home, have faced another set of exploitative dynamics in host countries in Western Europe such as the UK. Nevertheless, workers have continued to challenge exploitation in Central and Eastern Europe and also in Western Europe, and have been active in extending networks of transnational solidarity across the continent.

This essay examines a significant event in Australia’s economic and labour relations history in which an industrial relations court acted against government policy but in line with the advice of professional economists to impose a general wage reduction. This determination, unique during the period of central wage fixation, was made as the country fell into deep depression in 1930–1931. Arguments that a reduction in purchasing power would exacerbate the depression did not prevail over expert economic advice that wage reduction would lessen the structural consequences of reduced rural export income. The Court determined that the loss of real national income had to be accommodated without a wider package of measures such as exchange rate depreciation or expansionary monetary and fiscal policies. The impressive endeavours of the Court to understand and respond to a difficult economic reality represented a significant elevation of the status of wages policy in macroeconomic management – one that was to last for 60 years.

This article analyses from a Keynesian approach the effect of wage devaluation on the Spanish labour market during the Great Recession post-2008. It challenges the pro-flexibility literature, which attributes to labour relations reforms the prevention of larger job destruction in the recession and a larger reduction in unemployment during the subsequent expansion. Instead, we examine the role of wage devaluation in the operation of Okun’s law and gross domestic product, using an extended version of the Bhaduri–Marglin model. We find that wage devaluation has not significantly modified Okun’s law and that through its impact on income distribution, the unemployment rate rose by 1.9 percentage points. We therefore provide evidence for the negative effect of wage devaluation on gross domestic product and the positive effect on the unemployment rate.

These books, different in style and content but united in purpose and major conclusions, analyse events from 2007 to 2010 to ascertain why the economic disaster happened and what must be done to put the United States economy (on which both books focus) on a more secure footing, and prevent any recurrence of the extended crisis of those years. Both target the increasing influence of market liberalism over the last 30 years, and the institutions of capitalist economies which they have encouraged. Taylor focuses more on the regulation of the international financial sector, and Palley on labour market policy. They agree that both need to be addressed if the United States economy is to be restored to health. Both argue that growing income inequality in the US must be reversed before the US economy can significantly improve. Finally, they stress the interrelationship between political ideology and economic explanation, and argue that value free positive economics is a myth.

In the wake of the global financial crisis, unemployment rates and openness to trade have been the subject of considerable research, especially in developing countries. This study analyses the impacts of trade policy on unemployment rates in Nigeria. Using time series data from 1970 to 2010, it adopts the vector error correction methodology. In order to explore the impact of a range of variables on the relationship between trade openness and national unemployment rates, these variables, in a system of equations, include measures of trade openness, public recurrent spending on education, foreign price shocks and real gross domestic product or alternatively income per capita. The findings reveal that in the long run, real output and income per capita lead to a decline in unemployment, but trade openness policy is associated with an increase in unemployment. Foreign policy shocks, as proxied by commodity prices, also exert a positive effect on unemployment rates and do not contribute subsequently to restoring the system to equilibrium. However, the initial impact of openness and foreign price shocks captured by short-term dynamics are observed to reduce unemployment.

We use Canadian data over the period of 1991Q1 to 2019Q2 to examine the effect of higher minimum wages on consumption, measured as the real retail trade sales per adult population. Such an examination is rare in the extant literature and it is timely given the increasing debate concerning the stimulus versus inflationary effects arising from wage polices because of COVID-19 global pandemic. We apply the autoregressive distributed lag model to determine the causal relationship between these variables. We find one long-run cointegrating relationship that runs from the real minimum wage to the real retail trade sales. In addition, we find that a 1% increase in the minimum wage is associated with almost a 0.5% increase in real retail trade sales in the long run. While our findings rest on several statistical assumptions, there is strong evidence in support of the position that minimum wage strengthens aggregate consumer spending, and thereby the standard of living, economic growth and stability. This is a position that differs from the conclusions drawn from mainstream academic and policy debates on the economic usefulness and efficacy of minimum wage increases.

The article sheds light on the proposition that labour is a commodity by considering from a fundamental theoretical perspective whether labour is subject to the same market forces which apply to commodities in general in capitalist economies. It suggests that no spontaneous competitive force exists within capitalism that would adjust labour demand to its supply, in contrast to the adaptation of supply to the demand for commodities in general. This result is argued without reference to assumptions about inflexibilities or impediments in labour or other markets, or institutional features peculiar to ‘the labour market’. Its explanation of why labour markets do not clear is at odds with a core tenet underlying orthodox economic theory of the last century, which has acted as a fundamental benchmark for most theorising about labour to the present day. Rejection of this tenet is at the heart of a heterodox explanation of unemployment, the real wage and income distribution in capitalist economies.

Youth unemployment rates in most countries are considerably higher than total unemployment rates and increased significantly in many countries following the global financial crisis. Young people in long-term unemployment risk becoming a ‘lost generation’. We investigate individual and family characteristics predicting young people’s vulnerability to the scarring effects of long-term unemployment. After overviewing aggregate youth unemployment trends in several European countries, we focus on Russia and Italy – countries with contrasting structural and institutional conditions and exhibiting different macroeconomic trends – in order to determine whether, despite these differences, there were similar patterns in the relationship between individual and family characteristics and the of risk of unemployment and its adverse impacts. We use a Heckman probit model to estimate the unemployment risk of young people – compared to adults – during the period 2004–2011, before and after the global financial crisis. Despite many differences between the two countries, most of the explanatory variables acted in the same direction in each and so we compare the relative size of such effects. The policy significance of the findings is that personal and family characteristics are more amenable to modification than macroeconomic variables. Specific school-to-work interventions are needed to avoid creating a ‘lost generation’.