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The Rising Sea BY ORRIN H. PILKEY AND ROB YOUNG xiv + 203 pp., 35 figs, 24 × 16 × 2 cm, ISBN 1597261912 hardback, US$ 25.95, Washington, DC, USA: Island Press, 2009

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 June 2011

SHIMON C. ANISFELD*
Affiliation:
Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, 370 Prospect Street, New Haven, CT 06511, USA e-mail: shimon.anisfeld@yale.edu
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Abstract

Type
Book Review
Copyright
Copyright © Foundation for Environmental Conservation 2011

Sea level rise is without a doubt one of the most urgent problems facing coastal communities. The Rising Sea is a short, but comprehensive book covering the science and policy of this issue. It appears to be aimed primarily at a non-specialized audience, although it will be a helpful resource to students as well.

The Rising Sea provides readers with an excellent summary of all aspects of sea level rise (SLR), from the science of ocean warming to strategies for coping with SLR. Each of its nine chapters covers an important topic, including: the complex factors that control sea level; the uncertainty in predicting future SLR and shoreline retreat, especially the behaviours of the human system and of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets; the implications of SLR for coastal ecosystems and communities; the current response to SLR around the world; and the options for the future. Of particular note are Chapter 5 (A Sea of Denial), which analyses very effectively the opposition to the mainstream science on global warming and sea level rise; and Chapter 8 (Ground Zero: The Mississippi Delta), which examines in detail the complex human and biophysical dynamics of a region that is certainly among the most vulnerable to SLR. Throughout the book, abstract concepts are enlivened by concrete examples from around the world, including the USA's Atlantic and Gulf coasts, the Arctic island of Shishmaref and Pacific atoll nations.

The authors bring to the book a strong viewpoint on SLR, a perspective that is informed by their wealth of experience and knowledge. As they proceed through the book, they make a series of convincing and well-reasoned arguments: that SLR is a substantial threat; that society is not yet treating this threat with the seriousness it deserves; that attempts to fight SLR with hard engineering will ultimately be unsuccessful; that a policy of managed retreat is the best option; that it is critical to plan now for higher sea levels; and that planning must take into account the best projections for the future but also a healthy respect for the scientific and social uncertainty associated with those projections. The book thus provides a comprehensive set of policy prescriptions along with a strong foundation of knowledge. To my mind, the main weakness in their arguments may be insufficient acknowledgement that the superiority of retreat over protection becomes less clear when dealing with large coastal cities, which have massive pre-existing infrastructure investments. In addition, I am not completely convinced by their recommendation that planners should assume a sea level rise of 2 m over the course of this century, when the available evidence suggests that this is an unlikely worst-case scenario.

The Rising Sea manages to mostly achieve the twin goals of accessibility and accuracy, goals that can sometimes be hard to reconcile in a book aimed at a general audience. The book is well-written and quite readable, and I believe it will be accessible and useful to the interested layperson and to the introductory student. The authors are largely able to accomplish this without sacrificing accuracy, although there are several places where I would quibble with them over specific issues. Most of these are relatively minor points: zooxanthellae are not true plants (p. 112); local relative sea level rise includes both isostatic and eustatic components (p. 32); the contribution of wetland plants to sediment accumulation is largely roots and rhizomes, not leaves and stems (p. 146).

A slightly larger lapse in accuracy, in my view, is represented by the second half of Chapter 2, which suggests that sea level ‘has clearly been rising at an accelerating rate through the twentieth century and into the twenty-first’ (p. 40). I believe this is an overstatement that ignores the difficulty of interpreting sea level records, with their complex patterns of variability at different temporal (and spatial) scales. Depending on the type of data examined, some studies have indeed found an acceleration in SLR during the last 100 years, but there is still much debate over the significance, timing and spatial extent of this acceleration. Given the limitations of sea level data over the last century and the inherently high natural variability, it is quite challenging to distinguish a true (ongoing) acceleration from decadal variability or from a one-time shift in rate, and the authors don't sufficiently emphasize the uncertainty associated with any such conclusions. (The evidence is considerably stronger for a higher average rate of SLR in the 20th century compared to previous centuries, a fact that the authors don't acknowledge.) Still, this is a relatively minor issue in a book that is, on the whole, quite accurate, comprehensive and readable.