A lifecourse perspective at the micro-level

The micro-level captures the situation of individuals (Coleman Reference Coleman1986). It hosts a central idea of the lifecourse perspective: the one of lifecourse effects. Lifecourse effects imply that individuals' experiences can have effects years or even decades into the future (Elder Reference Elder1999; Mayer Reference Mayer, Riley, Huber and Hess1988). These experiences can, therefore, shape the progression of further lifecourses (Elder Reference Elder1999; Mayer Reference Mayer, Riley, Huber and Hess1988). For example, children that develop unhealthy lifestyles – including e.g. smoking, drinking alcohol and being overweight – are particularly likely to receive disability pensions when they are old (Harkonmäki et al. Reference Harkonmäki, Korkeila, Vahtera, Kivimäki, Suominen, Sillanmäki and Koskenvuo2007). Lifecourse effects are relevant for understanding population ageing, because they highlight that fertility, mortality and migration rates are interrelated. The life-events of childbirth, death and migration are all embedded in the lifecourse, which means that lifecourse effects can connect them to each other. On the one hand, one lifecourse effect can influence all three life-events. On the other hand, one of the life-events can have lifecourse effects on the other events. Complications during childbirth, for example, can limit future fertility or even have fatal outcomes. This insight suggests that fertility, mortality and migration rates should be jointly considered and the dynamics between them should be explored when discussing population ageing. This insight, moreover, suggests that interventions into population ageing that target one of these rates might have unintended side-effects on the other two rates.

Like the notion of lifecourse effects, the idea of social inequalities in the lifecourse contributes to our understanding of population ageing. This idea emphasises the fact that there is not one standard lifecourse (Mayer Reference Mayer2004; Settersten Reference Settersten and Settersten2003). Instead, lifecourses differ across social groups, that is, across genders, generations, levels of socio-economic status, occupational groups and ethnic groups (Minkler and Estes Reference Minkler and Estes1991; Settersten Reference Settersten and Settersten2003). The differences extend to the progression of lifecourses, the prevalence of life-events and the character of lifecourse effects (Elder Reference Elder1999; Settersten and Mayer Reference Settersten and Mayer1997). For instance, individuals with lower educational levels are more likely to take up physically demanding jobs, which can give rise to health problems and ultimately shorten life expectancy (Ferraro and Shippee Reference Ferraro and Shippee2009). The idea of social inequalities in the lifecourse indicates that explanations of population ageing need to be differentiated. Such explanations need to acknowledge social inequalities in a country and explore how much the rate and drivers of population ageing differ across social groups.

A lifecourse perspective at the meso-level

The meso-level contains intermediate institutions such as families and social networks (Hagestad and Uhlenberg Reference Hagestad and Uhlenberg2005; Reid, Sutton and Hunter Reference Reid, Sutton and Hunter2010). The lifecourse perspective captures the meso-level in the notion of linked lives (Bengtson, Elder and Putney Reference Bengtson, Elder, Putney and Johnson2005). The idea behind linked lives is that people experience their lives while interacting with the people around them (Bengtson, Elder and Putney Reference Bengtson, Elder, Putney and Johnson2005). Hence, whatever happens to one person also affects the individuals in their proximity, such as kin and close friends. One life-event can therefore impact several people at the same time, and change several lifecourses at the same time (Bengtson, Elder and Putney Reference Bengtson, Elder, Putney and Johnson2005). In other words: the lifecourses of people can be linked (Bengtson, Elder and Putney Reference Bengtson, Elder, Putney and Johnson2005). For example, if one person migrates for work, their entire family may also migrate to keep the family together (Bonney and Love Reference Bonney and Love1991). This idea of linked lives brings more complexity to explanations of population ageing. It indicates that the root causes for changes in fertility, mortality and migration rates do not lie only with the people whose lives led to changes in the rates. Instead, the root causes can also lie within the social network.

A lifecourse perspective at the macro-level

The macro-level refers to the social context that is made up of societies and countries (Coleman Reference Coleman1986). Like social networks, social context also influences how lifecourses progress (Hareven Reference Hareven1994). Lifecourse scholars label this fact lives in time and place (Settersten Reference Settersten1999). This notion entails that characteristics of the country, such as culture, labour market structures and welfare state design, influence lifecourses (Settersten Reference Settersten1999). Mayer (Reference Mayer, Woodward and Kohli2002, Reference Mayer2004) has demonstrated that social context modifies the occurrence of life-events. For instance, some Western countries introduced fertility policies that explicitly aim to increase the number of births (McDonald Reference McDonald2006). Buchholz et al. (Reference Buchholz, Hofäcker, Mills, Blossfeld, Kurz and Hofmeister2009) showed that social context also influences to what extent social inequalities shape an individual's lifecourse. For example, some welfare states grant universal access to health-care services, which can partly level the health status in a population, thereby making it less dependent on social-economic status (Chung and Muntaner Reference Chung and Muntaner2007; Korpi and Palme Reference Korpi and Palme1998). The notion of lives in time and place also indicates that lifecourses change when historical events occur (Settersten Reference Settersten1999). For example, in his much acclaimed study Children of the Great Depression, Elder (Reference Elder1999) describes how the economic crisis of the 1930s impacted the residents of Oakland, California. Because of the Depression, many people lost their jobs, experienced deprivation, adjusted their lifestyles and took on new life goals (Elder Reference Elder1999). When seeking to understand population ageing, scholars should therefore consider the characteristics of the country in question and keep an eye on historical events.

Figure 1 summarises the insight into population ageing gained from demography and lifecourse research. It shows that individuals differ in their characteristics, which leads to social inequalities in lifecourse effects and in childbirth, death and migration. Moreover, Figure 1 displays the influence of social networks on lifecourse effects. The aggregated life-events then describe populations according to their fertility, mortality and migration rates. Taken together, these rates influence how populations age. All these mechanisms together take place in the social context.

Figure 1. A three-level model explaining lifecourse influences on the age structure of a population.

The aftermath of World War II (1945–1949)

During the years following World War II, the German population was starting to recover from the effects of the war and people began to put their lives back together again (Evans Reference Evans1997). As a result, migration flows increased. Many Germans who had fled the country during the war returned, with some of them bringing newly founded families from abroad (Benz and Distel Reference Benz and Distel1992; Evans Reference Evans1997). Additionally, German soldiers who had fought abroad came back and, after some time, German prisoners of war returned (Wierling Reference Wierling and Klessmann2001). Likewise, Allied soldiers who had fought in Germany and people who had been prisoners of war in Germany returned to their home countries (Evans Reference Evans1997). Moreover, from this time on, the Allied Forces had soldiers stationed in Germany, some of whom married German women who later migrated to the soldiers' home countries (Munz and Ulrich Reference Munz and Ulrich1998). The return migration after the war illustrates the notion of lives in time and place (Settersten Reference Settersten1999), and the joint migration decisions illustrate the notion of linked lives (Bengtson, Elder and Putney Reference Bengtson, Elder, Putney and Johnson2005). However, because people of all ages migrated, the impact of migration on population ageing is not clear.

Once the country started to stabilise and the men returned from war, the baby boom set in (Wierling Reference Wierling and Klessmann2001). This increase in birth rates started gradually in West Germany in 1945 and then suddenly in East Germany in 1949 (Wierling Reference Wierling and Klessmann2001). The baby boom exemplifies the notion of lives in time and place because it was driven by historical events (Settersten Reference Settersten1999). In the middle of the 20th century, the baby boom countered population ageing (Christensen et al. Reference Christensen, Doblhammer, Rau and Vaupel2009). As the baby-boom generation aged, however, it aggravated the progression of population ageing (Christensen et al. Reference Christensen, Doblhammer, Rau and Vaupel2009). A generation is a group of people who were born around the same time, experienced historical events at the same ages, and consequently developed similar worldviews and lifecourses (Elder Reference Elder1975; Mannheim Reference Mannheim1928).

From 1945 onward, the survivors of World War II carried their war experiences with them (Mayer Reference Mayer, Riley, Huber and Hess1988). These experiences had profound lifecourse effects, which impacted the survivors’ working careers, family formation and health (Benz and Distel Reference Benz and Distel1992; Kesternich et al. Reference Kesternich, Siflinger, Smith and Winter2014; Mayer Reference Mayer, Riley, Huber and Hess1988). Therefore, the lifecourse of the generation who survived World War II differs markedly from the lifecourses of other generations (Mayer Reference Mayer, Riley, Huber and Hess1988). This insight evokes the argument of social inequalities in the lifecourse (Settersten Reference Settersten and Settersten2003). Notably, the trauma, poor living conditions, malnutrition and injuries obtained during the war deteriorated the survivors' health – in both the short and long term (Benz and Distel Reference Benz and Distel1992; Kesternich et al. Reference Kesternich, Siflinger, Smith and Winter2014; Mayer Reference Mayer, Riley, Huber and Hess1988). As a result, the life expectancy of World War II survivors decreased, which slowed down population ageing. However, it is unclear how the overall progression of population ageing developed between the end of the war and 1949, because fertility and mortality changes coincided with the strong migration flows into and out of the country. Overall, the population in the newly defined area of Germany increased within that time, totalling 44 million in 1946 and 48 million in 1950 (Statistisches Bundesamt 1952).

The era of Germany's separation (1949–1990)

When Germany was split in two, the lives of people in the East and the West diverged (Wierling Reference Wierling and Klessmann2001). In the East, the GDR emerged as a communist state with a dictatorship (Schwarzer Reference Schwarzer1999). It adopted a planned economy, which guaranteed work for all, it strived to even out social inequalities and it strongly interfered in its citizens' lives (Bouvier Reference Bouvier2002; Evans Reference Evans1997). Thus, it pursued the idea of planned, uniform lifecourses. In the West, the FRG emerged as a democracy (Deighton Reference Deighton, Howard and Louis1998; Evans Reference Evans1997). It adopted a market economy, which allowed for social inequalities and even facilitated them, e.g. through occupational groups having separate social insurances (Korpi and Palme Reference Korpi and Palme1998; Mayer Reference Mayer2004). Thus, there was a range of lifecourse patterns in the FRG. This difference between East and West Germany exemplifies social inequalities in the lifecourse (Mayer Reference Mayer2004).

During the first years of the GDR, East Germany saw an emigration flow into the West (Vogt Reference Vogt2013). Until 1960, about 3.8 million individuals migrated from East to West Germany, while only 400,000 individuals migrated from the West to the East (Fassmann and Munz Reference Fassmann and Munz1994). This migration flow was so high that it shrunk the East German population (Munz Reference Munz1994). Many of the migrants were young, educated people (Vogt Reference Vogt2013), which means that the emigration flow contributed to an ageing of the East German population. However, the strength of the impact is unclear because of a lack of age-specific migration statistics. Since the migration flow was a reaction to the development of the GDR, it illustrates the notion of lives in time and place (Settersten Reference Settersten1999). However, this migration stream abruptly stopped when the intra-German border closed in 1960, making it difficult to leave the country (Vogt Reference Vogt2013). From this time on, the GDR was mainly a migration destination for ethnic Germans from other communist countries in Eastern Europe (Fassmann and Munz Reference Fassmann and Munz1994). After a while, the population that lived in the GDR began to rejuvenate (Eurostat 2014b ). For example, the old-age dependency ration in the GDR increased from 20.7 in 1960 to 26.3 in 1975 and then dropped to 19.6 in 1989 (Eurostat 2014b ). This development was the result of GDR policies, and therefore is an example of lives in time and place (Settersten Reference Settersten1999). On the one hand, the GDR had a sub-standard health-care system and it focused its social provisions on youths and middle-agers (Vogt Reference Vogt2013). As a result, life expectancies in the GDR were significantly lower than in the Western part of Germany (Vogt Reference Vogt2013). On the other hand, the GDR had a job guarantee and well-developed child-care services that allowed mothers to strike a work–life balance (Bouvier Reference Bouvier2002). Thus, women could have their desired number of children without having to compromise their career (Bouvier Reference Bouvier2002). Moreover, the state allotted young couples their own apartment earlier if they had children (Bouvier Reference Bouvier2002). This policy was an additional incentive to have children at a young age (Bouvier Reference Bouvier2002). Together, these GDR policies counteracted the process of population ageing and turned it into a rejuvenation process from the 1980s on (Eurostat 2014b ).

In the West German FRG, the organisation of paid work strongly influenced the progression of population ageing. The FRG welfare state provided only some care services for children and dependent older people, while expecting women to take on significant care tasks for their kin (Pfau-Effinger Reference Pfau-Effinger2005). Nevertheless, to ensure women's financial security, social insurance transferred social rights from working spouses to their stay-at-home wives, thereby pulling mothers out of the labour market (Meyer Reference Meyer1998). This welfare state arrangement linked the lives of spouses (Bengtson, Elder and Putney Reference Bengtson, Elder, Putney and Johnson2005). At the same time, it also made it hard for women to combine paid work with having children (McDonald Reference McDonald2006), and many reacted by having fewer children than they desired (Bernhardt Reference Bernhardt1993; Rosenfeld, Trappe and Gornick Reference Rosenfeld, Trappe and Gornick2004). As a consequence, the total fertility rate remained under the replacement level, amounting to only 1.45 in 1975 and declining even further to 1.4 in 1989 (Bernhardt Reference Bernhardt1993). Such low fertility rates contributed to a shrinking and ageing of the West German population (Castles Reference Castles2003; Coleman Reference Coleman2008). This mechanism illustrates the argument of lives in time and place and it underlines social inequalities in that lifecourses follow gender-specific dynamics (Minkler and Estes Reference Minkler and Estes1991; Settersten Reference Settersten1999, Reference Settersten and Settersten2003).

Germany's recruitment of guest workers slowed down the process of population ageing (Coleman Reference Coleman2008). Germany recruited these migrants in the late 1950s and onwards, mainly from Italy, Turkey, Greece and Yugoslavia (Bauerkämper Reference Bauerkämper2014). By 1973, there were about 2.6 million labour migrants in Western Germany (Schönwalder Reference Schönwälder, Gregor, Roemer and Roseman2006). This migration stream is an example of lives in time and place (Settersten Reference Settersten1999). The German government intended these people to work temporarily in the growing German industrial sector and then return to their home countries (Schönwälder Reference Schönwälder, Gregor, Roemer and Roseman2006). However, it soon became obvious that many of these migrants were going to stay, and their families followed them to Germany (Bauerkämpfer Reference Bauerkämper2014). This migration for family reunion is another example of linked lives (Bengtson, Elder and Putney Reference Bengtson, Elder, Putney and Johnson2005). The first and second generations of migrants showed lifecourse effects in that their fertility rates were influenced by their countries of origin (Feichtinger and Steinmann Reference Feichtinger and Steinmann1992; Milewski Reference Milewski2010). Between 1975 and 1993, the fertility rate of native West Germans lingered at around 1.3 (Nauck Reference Nauck2007). During the same time, the fertility rates of German residents of Turkish decent declined from 4.3 to 2.5, for people of Italian, Greek and Portuguese decent they declined from around 2.5 to West German levels, and only for people of Spanish decent did they decline from 2.0 to below the West German level (0.6) (Nauck Reference Nauck2007). These ethnic differences in fertility rates exemplify social inequalities in the lifecourse (Settersten Reference Settersten and Settersten2003). Overall, the influx of labour migrants slowed down the processes of population decline and population ageing in Germany, but was not sufficient to stop or reverse them (Milewski Reference Milewski2010; Munz Reference Munz1996). In 1973, Germany tightened its immigration laws, which reduced the number of new immigrants (Schönwalder Reference Schönwälder, Gregor, Roemer and Roseman2006).

After the re-unification (1990–2008)

After the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the two parts of Germany were reunited in 1990 (Evans Reference Evans1997). The organisation of social provisions, such as pension insurance, was expanded from West Germany to also include the East of the country (Wiesenthal Reference Wiesenthal2003). On the one hand, the health-care system in the West had been more advanced, which means that the transfer of this model improved the health status of Eastern German citizens and increased their life expectancies (Vogt Reference Vogt2013). Consequently, population ageing deepened (Vogt Reference Vogt2013). On the other hand, child-care services in West Germany were less developed than in the East, and a transfer of their organisation made it harder for East German women to combine paid work and child care (Evers, Lewis and Riedel Reference Evers, Lewis and Riedel2005; Witte and Wagner Reference Witte and Wagner1995). Women in East Germany considered this development and the newly emerging unemployment in the East problematic, and their fertility rate dropped as a consequence (Witte and Wagner Reference Witte and Wagner1995). This change also enhanced the process of population ageing. Exemplifying the principle of lives in time and place (Settersten Reference Settersten1999), these developments aligned lifecourses in the East and the West.

Shortly after the re-unification of Germany, the Soviet Union dissolved and communist regimes across Eastern Europe fell (Deighton Reference Deighton, Howard and Louis1998). As the Eastern European countries transformed and stabilised, many of them joined the European Union and thereby gave their citizens better opportunities to migrate within Europe (Deighton Reference Deighton, Howard and Louis1998; Miera Reference Miera2008). As a result, the influx of Eastern European migrants into Germany increased (Kogan Reference Kogan2011). For example, the number of Central and Eastern EuropeansFootnote ¹ that were registered in Germany increased from less than 300,000 in 1989 to 716,000 in 2008 (Destatis 2009; Haug Reference Haug2004). This migration stream is another example of the notion of lives in time and place (Settersten Reference Settersten1999). Many of these migrants were ethnic Germans that permanently settled in Germany, or people of other ethnicities that came to Germany as seasonal workers (Kogan Reference Kogan2011; Miera Reference Miera2008). Like in the case of the guest workers, the ethnic Germans often migrated as families, thus illustrating the notion of linked lives (Bengtson, Elder and Putney Reference Bengtson, Elder, Putney and Johnson2005; Dietz Reference Dietz2000; Kogan Reference Kogan2011). Where the migrants maintained the fertility rates typical for their country of origin, they displayed lifecourse effects (Elder Reference Elder1994) and the ethnic differences illustrated the idea of social inequalities in the lifecourse (Mayer Reference Mayer2004; Settersten Reference Settersten and Settersten2003). Because these families can consist of individuals of all ages, their impact on population ageing is diffuse. The seasonal workers at least temporarily increase the number of young and middle-aged people in Germany.

The era of the 2008 economic crisis (2008–present)

In 2008, a global economic crisis developed, changing economies and societies (Van Kersbergen, Vis and Hemerijck Reference Van Kersbergen, Vis and Hemerijck2014). Many people lost their jobs and amassed debts, leading to lifestyle changes; some people moved back in with their parents or grandparents to save money (Komp et al. Reference Komp, Starke, Van Hooren, Schneckenburger, Simonsen, Heuer and Rahn2013). Although it is still too early to make definitive statements on how the social change triggered by this crisis will play out, some trends are already visible.

First, Eastern and Southern Europe, as well as the Republic of Ireland, saw particularly drastic increases in unemployment rates, which motivated many to leave these countries in search of employment elsewhere (Kattel Reference Kattel2010; Komp et al. Reference Komp, Starke, Van Hooren, Schneckenburger, Simonsen, Heuer and Rahn2013; Petmesidou and Guillen Reference Petmesidou and Guillen2014; Walsh, Carney and Léime Reference Walsh, Carney and Léime2015). This migration stream is one more example of how lives are tied to time and place (Settersten Reference Settersten1999). Some of these migrants came to Germany (Destatis 2015). As a result, the migration stream in Germany changed from a net emigration of 56,000 individuals in 2008 to a net immigration of almost 430,000 individuals in 2013 (Destatis 2015). Youths are especially likely to migrate because of the economic crisis (González-Ferrer Reference González-Ferrer2013; Komp et al. Reference Komp, Starke, Van Hooren, Schneckenburger, Simonsen, Heuer and Rahn2013; Walsh, Carney and Léime Reference Walsh, Carney and Léime2015). Even though there are no migration statistics by age, it seems likely that a considerable number of the recent migrants to Germany are youths. If these young migrants act like previous generations of migrants to Germany, then they might migrate together with their families and display fertility rates typical for their countries of origin. They could, thereby, slow down population ageing in Germany and exemplify the notions of linked lives, lifecourse effects and social inequalities in the lifecourse (Bengtson, Elder and Putney Reference Bengtson, Elder, Putney and Johnson2005; Mayer Reference Mayer2004; Settersten Reference Settersten1999, Reference Settersten and Settersten2003).

Second, unemployment can motivate people to delay their plans to start a family (Gordo Reference Gordo2009). As a result, fertility rates might drop and the German population would age even faster. Such a development would be another example of lives in time and place (Settersten Reference Settersten1999). However, even if we do not yet know how exactly societies will change in the wake of the crisis, the notion of lifecourse effects (Elder Reference Elder1994) tells us that the experience of the crisis will continue to shape lives for decades into the future.