Hostname: page-component-6dbcb7884d-64ff6 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-02-13T18:53:06.789Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

External Threats and Public Opinion: The East Asian Security Environment and Japanese Views on the Nuclear Option

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 February 2023

Naoko Matsumura Open the ORCID record for Naoko Matsumura [Opens in a new window] ,
Atsushi Tago  and
Joseph M. Grieco
Naoko Matsumura*
Affiliation:
Graduate School of Law, Kobe University, Kobe, Japan
Atsushi Tago
Affiliation:
School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan and Peace Research Institute Oslo, Norway
Joseph M. Grieco
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
*
*Corresponding author. Email: matsumura@people.kobe-u.ac.jp
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

The Japanese public has been assumed to possess a deeply ingrained aversion toward the acquisition of nuclear weapons. We employ a survey experiment to ascertain whether this aversion is unconditional or may erode in the face of hypothetical deterioration in Japan's security situation, and in particular a hypothetical withdrawal of the US security-nuclear umbrella, increased North Korean nuclear weapons testing activities, and movement by South Korea toward the attainment of a nuclear arsenal. We find that the Japanese nuclear aversion may come under stress in the face of such developments. Additionally, we find that the elasticity of Japanese attitudes with respect to the nuclear option in the face of external security deterioration may be associated with an important individual-level demographic characteristic, namely, gender.

Keywords

security environmentnuclear weaponsnuclear aversionJapansurvey experiment
Type
Article
Information
Journal of East Asian Studies , Volume 23 , Issue 1 , March 2023 , pp. 23 - 44
Check for updates
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the East Asia Institute

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Aronow, Peter M., Baron, Jonathon, and Pinson, Lauren. 2019. “A Note on Dropping Experimental Subjects Who Fail a Manipulation Check.” Political Analysis 27 (4): 572–589.10.1017/pan.2019.5CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barnhart, Joslyn N., Trager, Robert F., Saunders, Elizabeth N., and Dafoe, Allan. 2020. “The Suffragist Peace.” International Organization 74 (4): 633–70.10.1017/S0020818320000508CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bass, Gary. 2019. “Trump's Ignorant Comments About Japan Were Bad Even for Him.” New York Times, June 28, www.nytimes.com/2019/06/28/opinion/trump-japan.html.Google Scholar
Ben Shitrit, Lihi, Elad-Strenger, Julia, and Hirsch-Hoefler, Sivan. 2017. “Gender Differences in Support for Direct and Indirect Political Aggression in the Context of Protracted Conflict.” Journal of Peace Research 54 (6): 733–747.10.1177/0022343317714301CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berger, Thomas U. 1993. “From Sword to Chrysanthemum: Japan's Culture of Anti-Militarism.” International Security 17 (4): 119–150.10.2307/2539024CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berger, Thomas U. 1996. “Norms, Identities, and National Security in Germany and Japan.” in The Culture of National Security: Norms and Identities in World Politics, edited by Katzenstein, Peter J., 317–356. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Brooks, Deborah Jordan, and Valentino, Benjamin A.. 2011. “A War of One's Own: Understanding the Gender Gap in Support for War.” Public Opinion Quarterly 75 (2): 270–286.10.1093/poq/nfr005CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dafoe, Allan, Renshon, Jonathan, and Huth, Paul. 2014. “Reputation and Status as Motives for War.” Annual Review of Political Science 17: 371–393.10.1146/annurev-polisci-071112-213421CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eichenberg, Richard C. 2003. “Gender Differences in Public Attitudes toward the Use of Force by the United States, 1990–2003.” International Security 28 (1): 110–141.10.1162/016228803322427992CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eichenberg, Richard C. 2016. “Gender Difference in American Public Opinion on the Use of Military Force, 1982–2013.” International Studies Quarterly 60 (1): 138–148.10.1093/isq/sqv019CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eichenberg, Richard C. 2019. Gender, War, and World Order: A Study of Public Opinion. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.10.7591/9781501738159CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Genron NPO. 2017. The 5th Japan–South Korea Joint Public Opinion Poll: Analysis Report on Comparative Data July, 2017. www.genron-npo.net/en/archives/170721_en.pdf, accessed August 12, 2020).Google Scholar
Genron NPO. 2018a. The 6th Japan–South Korea Joint Public Opinion Poll: Analysis Report on Comparative Data June, 2018. www.genron-npo.net/en/180618.pdf, accessed August 12, 2020).Google Scholar
Genron NPO. 2018b. The Genron NPO Poll 2017–Annual Public Opinion Report: The Future of Northeast Asia and the State of Democracy, March 20, www.genron-npo.net/en/opinion_polls/genronnpo_poll2017.pdf, accessed August 12, 2020.Google Scholar
Haworth, Alida R., Sagan, Scott D., and Valentino, Benjamin A.. 2019. “What Do Americans Really Think about Conflict with Nuclear North Korea? The Answer is Both Reassuring and Disturbing.” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 75 (4):179–186.10.1080/00963402.2019.1629576CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hoey, Fintan. 2016. “Japan and Extended Nuclear Deterrence: Security and Non-proliferation.” Journal of Strategic Studies 39(4): 484–501.10.1080/01402390.2016.1168010CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hughes, Christopher W. 2009. “Super-Sizing’ The DPRK Threat: Japan's Evolving Military Posture and North Korea.” Asian Survey 49 (2): 291–311.10.1525/as.2009.49.2.291CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hughes, Llewlyn. 2007. “Why Japan Will Not Go Nuclear (Yet): International and Domestic Constraints on the Nuclearization of Japan.” International Security 31 (4): 67–96.10.1162/isec.2007.31.4.67CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hymans, Jacques E. C. 2006. The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation: Identity, Emotions and Foreign Policy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9780511491412CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jo, Dong-Joon, and Gartzke, Erik. 2007. “Determinants of Nuclear Weapons Proliferation.” Journal of Conflict Resolution. 51 (1): 167–194.10.1177/0022002706296158CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnston, Alastair Iain. 1995. Cultural Realism: Strategic Culture and Grand Strategy in Chinese History. Princeton: Princeton University Press.10.1515/9780691213149CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Katzenstein, Peter J., ed. 1996. Cultural Norms and National Security: Police and Military in Postwar Japan. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Ko, Jiyoung. 2018. “Alliance and Public Preference for Nuclear Forbearance: Evidence from South Korea.” Foreign Policy Analysis 15 (4): 509–529.10.1093/fpa/ory014CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Machida, Satoshi. 2018. “Anti-Nuclear Norms in Japan and Declining Faith in the U.S. ‘Nuclear Umbrella’: A Survey.” Asian Politics & Policy 10 (3): 442–459.10.1111/aspp.12405CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Matsumura, Naoko, and Tago, Atsushi. 2019. “Negative Surprise in UN Security Council Authorization: Do the UK and French Vetoes Influence the General Public's Support of US Military Action?” Journal of Peace Research 56(3): 395–409.10.1177/0022343318809786CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miyashita, Akitoshi. 2007. “Where Do Norms Come From? Foundations of Japan's Postwar Pacifism.” International Relations of Asia Pacific 7 (1): 99–120.10.1093/irap/lci135CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mochizuki, Mike M. 2007. “Japan Tests the Nuclear Taboo.” Nonproliferation Review 14 (2): 303–328.10.1080/10736700701379393CrossRefGoogle Scholar
O'Neill, Barry. 2006. “Nuclear Weapons and National Prestige. Discussion.” Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, Paper no. 1560.Google Scholar
Potter, William C. 2010. “In Search of the Nuclear Taboo: Past, Present, and Future.” Proliferation Papers, No. 31, Winter. https://www.ifri.org/en/publications/etudes-de-lifri/proliferation-papers/search-nuclear-taboo-past-present-and-future, accessed January 4, 2022.Google Scholar
Pratto, Felicia Çidam, Stewart, Atilla, Zeineddine, Andrew L., Aranda, Fouad Bou, et al. 2013. “Social Dominance in Context and in Individuals: Contextual Moderation of Robust Effects of Social Dominance Orientation in 15 Languages and 20 Countries”: Erratum. Social Psychological and Personality Science 4 (5): 587–599.10.1177/1948550612473663CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Press, Daryl G., Sagan, Scott D., and Valentino, Benjamin A.. 2013. “Atomic Aversion: Experimental Evidence on Taboos, Traditions, and the Non-Use of Nuclear Weapons.” American Political Science Review 107 (1): 188–206.10.1017/S0003055412000597CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reiter, Dan. 2014. “Security Commitments and Nuclear Proliferation.” Foreign Policy Analysis 10 (1): 61–80.10.1111/fpa.12004CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Renshon, Jonathan. 2017. Fighting for Status. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Sagan, Scott D. 1996/1997. “Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons? Three Models in Search of a Bomb.” International Security 21 (3): 54–86.10.2307/2539273CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sagan, Scott D., and Valentino, Benjamin A.. 2017. “Revisiting Hiroshima in Iran: What Americans Really Think about Using Nuclear Weapons and Killing Noncombatants.” International Security 42 (1): 41–79.10.1162/ISEC_a_00284CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Singh, Sonali, and Way, Christopher. 2004. “The Correlates of Nuclear Proliferation.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 48(6): 859–885.10.1177/0022002704269655CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stein, Rachel M. 2015. “War and Revenge: Explaining Conflict Initiation by Democracies.” American Political Science Review 109(3): 556–573.10.1017/S0003055415000301CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Steindl, Christina, Jonas, Eva, Sittenthaler, Sandra, Traut-Mattausch, Eva, and Greenberg, Jeff. 2015. “Understanding Psychological Reactance: New Developments and Findings.” Zeitschrift für Psychologie 223 (4): 205–214.10.1027/2151-2604/a000222CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Sukin, Lauren. 2020. “Credible Nuclear Security Commitments Can Backfire: Explaining Domestic Support for Nuclear Weapons Acquisition in South Korea.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 64 (6): 1011–1042.10.1177/0022002719888689CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tago, Atsushi, and Ikeda, Maki. 2015. “An ‘A’ for Effort: Experimental Evidence on UN Security Council Engagement and Support for US Military Action in Japan.” British Journal of Political Science 45(2): 391–410.10.1017/S0007123413000343CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tannenwald, Nina. 2007. The Nuclear Taboo: The United States and the Non-Use of Nuclear Weapons Since 1945. New York: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9780511491726CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tannenwald, Nina. 2018. “How Strong Is the Nuclear Taboo Today?” The Washington Quarterly 41 (3): 89–109.10.1080/0163660X.2018.1520553CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Matsumura et al. supplementary material

Matsumura et al. supplementary material 1

Download Matsumura et al. supplementary material(File)
File 425 KB
Supplementary material: File

Matsumura et al. supplementary material

Matsumura et al. supplementary material 2

Download Matsumura et al. supplementary material(File)
File 156.9 KB
Supplementary material: File

Matsumura et al. supplementary material

Matsumura et al. supplementary material 3

Download Matsumura et al. supplementary material(File)
File 135 KB