Donggala Impact Analysis (Table 1)

At Donggala, the earthquake measured 7.7 on the Richter Scale^14–16 and VII on the Modified Mercalli Intensities,^14–16 as well as the tsunami reported at the area. The humanitarian impact calculated within 12 hours of the incident scored a High Index of 7.4 on the YEW DSI,^{Reference Yew, Castro Delgado, Heslop and Arcos González12,Reference Yew, Arcos Gonzalez and Castro Delgado13} based on its scoring criteria from Figure 1. The 11 out of the total 17 vulnerability and exposure indicators that scored more than three, or a median score percentage of 100%, the baseline coping capacity,^{Reference Yew, Castro Delgado, Heslop and Arcos González12,Reference Yew, Arcos Gonzalez and Castro Delgado13} were: topography, radius from the impact site, accessibility to the impact site, main source of economy at the impact site, public infrastructure, communication, type of country, water and sanitation hygiene, governance (corruption perception index), shelter, and health care capacity.

Table 1. Donggala Impact Analysis using Yew Disaster Severity Index (DSI)^{Reference Yew, Castro Delgado, Heslop and Arcos González12,Reference Yew, Arcos Gonzalez and Castro Delgado13}

Note: Computed Donggala DSI Scores Analysis on September 29, 2018 at 22:00.

$$\displaylines{{\rm{YEW\ DSI\ Formula}} = {{{\rm{Total\ 17\ indicators }}\left( {{\rm{vulnerability }} + {\rm{exposure}}} \right) \times 3} \over {8\left( {{\rm{best\ fit\ scale\ of\ DSI\ 1 \!\!- \!\!8}}} \right)}} \cr \hskip 32pt = 70 \times 3/8 ({\rm{best\ fit\ scale\ of\ DSI\ 1 \!\!- \!\!8}}) \cr \hskip 37pt = 210,\ {\rm{best\ fit\ DSI\ 7}} \approx {\rm{High\ DSI\ 7.4}}} $$

DSI Categories, based on Figure 1 scoring criteria:

^a Overall, 11/17 indicators scored more than 3 or 100% median score percentage (Fit %), with a High DSI, more than the baseline coping capacity, indicating external assistance or response needed.

Donggala¹⁷ was located at an isolated island, scoring five with mountainous topography in Sulawesi, as its main roads were totally inaccessible. The nearest airport at Palu,^17,18 part of its runway was damaged, indicating totally inaccessible to the impact site and scoring five. The only accessible and functioning airport was via Balikpapan, Kalimantan,^17,18 the nearest island. The main road to Donggala^17,18 town via Jalan Poros Palu Mamuju was also totally inaccessible. The earthquake and tsunami impacts were felt in more than 10 districts, and also at neighboring countries as reported by USGS¹⁶ and BMKG,^14,15 thus scoring five for radius of the impact site indicator. Communication and power supply^14,15 were totally cut off, scoring a maximum score of five. Most of the public or critical infrastructure and shelters were totally destroyed,^17,18 scoring five for both indicators, evidenced with the buildings and shelters less than two-stories high. The tsunami^14–16 had a reported wave height and velocity of approximately six meters with a wave speed of 800kph. Most of the affected population was trapped in a building due to its structure and height. As for health care capacity,^{Reference Yew, Castro Delgado, Heslop and Arcos González12,Reference Yew, Arcos Gonzalez and Castro Delgado13} the nearest hospitals were located at Palu^17,18 town, thus scoring five. All 11 of the 17 indicators, as mentioned above, were plotted in the YEW DSI^{Reference Yew, Castro Delgado, Heslop and Arcos González12,Reference Yew, Arcos Gonzalez and Castro Delgado13} scoring scale (Table 1) with 10 indicators that scored five, the maximum score of inability to cope within local capacity, and one indicator that scored four, above the baseline coping capacity. External assistance and disaster response were required based on the 11 indicator needs^{6,Reference Yew, Castro Delgado, Heslop and Arcos González12,Reference Yew, Arcos Gonzalez and Castro Delgado13} and a High DSI of 7.4 in Table 1.

Palu Impact Analysis (Table 2)

The earthquake at Palu¹⁷ measured 7.5 on the Richter Scale^14–16 and VI on the Modified Mercalli Intensities Scale, as well as the tsunami;^14-16 its humanitarian impact calculated also showed a High Index of 7.4 (Table 2) on the YEW DSI.^{Reference Yew, Castro Delgado, Heslop and Arcos González12,Reference Yew, Arcos Gonzalez and Castro Delgado13} The 13 of the total 17 indicators scoring more than the baseline coping capacity,^{Reference Yew, Castro Delgado, Heslop and Arcos González12,Reference Yew, Arcos Gonzalez and Castro Delgado13} based on the scoring criteria of the YEW DSI,^{Reference Yew, Castro Delgado, Heslop and Arcos González12,Reference Yew, Arcos Gonzalez and Castro Delgado13} were: time occurrence and population density, with the remaining 11 indicators scoring the same as of Donggala. As Palu¹⁷ was the main town, it had a higher population density^9,17 in the beach area, thus scoring five. Its topography¹⁷ consists of isolated island, scoring five, and planar at Talise Beach. The main bridge^17,18 that connects the east and west of the Palu town was totally damaged and inaccessible. Palu airport’s^17,18 runway was damaged, partially functioning, and accessible with smaller aircrafts, thus scoring four. The nearest accessible and fully functioning airport was via Balikpapan, Kalimantan.^17,18

Table 2. Palu Impact Analysis using Yew Disaster Severity Index (DSI)^{Reference Yew, Castro Delgado, Heslop and Arcos González12,Reference Yew, Arcos Gonzalez and Castro Delgado13}

Note: Computed Palu DSI Scores Analysis on September 29, 2018 at 22:30.

$$\displaylines{{\rm{YEW\ DSI\ formula}} = {{{\rm{Total\ 17\ indicators }}\left( {{\rm{vulnerability }} + {\rm{exposure}}} \right) \times 3 } \over {8\left( {{\rm{best\ fit\ scale\ of\ DSI\ 1\!\!-\!\!8}}} \right)}} \cr \hskip 28pt = 70 \times 3 /8\left( {{\rm{best\ fit\ scale\ of\ DSI\ 1\!\!-\!\!8}}} \right) \cr \hskip 33pt = 210,\ {\rm{best\ fit\ DSI\ 7}} \approx {\rm{High\ DSI\ 7.4}} } $$

DSI categories, based on Figure 1 scoring criteria:

^a Overall, 13/17 indicators scored more than 3 or 100% median score percentage (Fit %), with a High DSI, more than the baseline coping capacity, indicating external assistance or response needed.

Most of the public or critical infrastructure and shelters were totally destroyed,^17,18 scoring five for both indicators, which was the same as of Donggala with the tsunami^14–16 wave height and velocity reported at approximately six meters with a wave speed of 800kph. Indonesia Tsunami Early Warning System^14,15 was called off after approximately 30 minutes of activation, and the community came out for beach cultural festival celebration after the earthquake at Talise Beach. Tsunami Early Warning Evacuation Siren was silent when the tsunami hit Palu. Most of the hospitals^17,18 located at east and west of Palu town were found either totally or partially damaged, with a score of four. Water and Sanitation and Hygiene facilities were totally damaged; only damaged latrines and non-potable water was available, thus indicating an inability to cope within local capacity^6,18 in Palu^17,18 and Donggala,^17,18 scoring 4.5≈5.

Detailed Humanitarian Impact Analysis scoring based on YEW DSI^{Reference Yew, Castro Delgado, Heslop and Arcos González12,Reference Yew, Arcos Gonzalez and Castro Delgado13} (Table 1 and Table 2), as well as the real-time data, were sent to relevant authorities¹⁹ on September 30, 2018 at 08:40. A State of Emergency¹⁸ for Palu and Donggala, Sulawesi was declared by the Governor for national response.¹⁹ The United Nations report and other nongovernmental organizations needs assessment reports only came out on October 2, 2018.²⁰

Benchmarking the Response

The earthquake and tsunami at Palu and Donggala, with indicators and total scoring of an inability to cope within local capacity, were found to be almost an exact fit with the Indonesian Government’s four main priorities²¹ in Post-Disaster National Response, announced on October 2, 2018. The four main priorities follow.

The first priority²¹ was on search and relief of the disaster-affected victims and evacuation during the golden hours. This was done by collaborating and mobilizing governmental agencies, such as Indonesian National Agency of Search and Rescue (BASARNAS; Jakarta, Indonesia),²² Indonesian National Armed Forces (TNI; Jakarta, Indonesia),²³ and Indonesian National Police (POLRI; Jakarta, Indonesia).²⁴ The Ministry of Public Works and Public Housing of the Republic of Indonesia (PUPR; Jakarta, Indonesia)²⁵ also deployed more excavation heavy equipment, giving accessibility to the disaster impact site and aiding the BASARNAS Team.

The second priority²¹ was setting up medical response services in terms of health care capacity for treating the affected victims. Mobile hospitals needed to be set up at the affected areas, and the Indonesian Military Sealift Command Hospital Ship²³ needed to deploy to the disaster impact sites. Mobile hospital tents were also being set up at the partially damaged Palu airport by the TNI.²³

The third priority²¹ was on fulfilment of basic needs and logistics for the affected victims, especially access to clean water and sanitation hygiene facilities. The TNI²³ and POLRI²⁴ were to be in charge of ensuring those basic needs were reachable to the affected communities.

The fourth priority²¹ was focusing on reconstruction and restoration of critical facilities and public infrastructure, especially vital facilities such as airports, roads, electricity, and fuel supply. This would then revive the economy at the impact site, paving the road to recovery.

The 2018 Indonesian earthquake and tsunami real-time disaster response priorities²¹ were almost an exact fit with the YEW DSI indicators, and the scoring of inability to cope within local capacity.⁶ The State of Emergency declaration¹⁸ indicated an inability to cope within local capacity, with external assistance and response needed. This was evidenced in a High DSI of 7.4 for both Donggala and Palu (Table 1 and Table 2) and national response¹⁸ deployed from Jakarta and Kalimantan, as well as international response, based on needs.

The magnitude intensities of the Richter Scale¹ and the Modified Mercalli Scale³ reported for Palu and Donggala and the humanitarian impact in the disaster metrics calculated were highly significant, with Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.9280 (Table 3) using Microsoft Excel 2013 (Microsoft Corp.; Redmond, Washington USA) statistical analysis.²⁶

Table 3. Pearson Correlation Coefficient Result

Note: Strong Correlation Coefficient, R-value = 0.92805.