In September 2012, the Russian government told the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) to close its Moscow office, a shift from two decades of cooperation between the United States and Russia. One of the reasons for the deterioration of US-Russian relations is convincingly outlined in this book: Russian resentment of increased US influence in its “near abroad,” or the former states of the Soviet Union. What US officials, policymakers, and non-governmental organizations laud as democracy-building efforts are understood by Russia to be interference in its sphere of influence (pp. 92–94, 107). These clashing US-Russian perspectives came to a head with the 2003–2005 Color Revolutions (pp. 192–94).
Lincoln Mitchell's book provides an analytical overview of three Colored Revolution events in 2003–5 in detail: the Rose Revolution in Georgia, Ukraine's Orange Revolution, and the Tulip Revolution in Kyrgyzstan. The book argues against the optimistic view of many US and Western policymakers regarding the changes in authority in these states. One crucial argument is that policymakers should give more consideration to the counter-influence played by Russia in these events. Scholars and policymakers ignore the international context at their peril.
This is not a very theoretical book overall. There are some literature citations invoked in defining the Color Revolutions, but the theoretical discussion does not extend to the nuances of theories of hybrid regimes, transitions, or competitive authoritarianism. At the same time, a reader interested in these general literatures will have ample detail from this book to construct some of these connections independently. Some of the central themes addressed include election cycles and breakthroughs and the role of civil society. External influences such as the US, Russia, and NATO play a central role in the book, and there is a useful discussion of the mixed results of “exporting,” or diffusion, of the Color Revolutions to places such as Belarus, Azerbaijan, and the Middle East and North Africa. The chapters coherently present these complex events by theme and chronology rather than by case. The writing style is generally readable and clear, with the exception of some of the theoretical sketches, which are sometimes a bit forced. The author's clear passion is for the wealth of empirical detail, which is well-written and allows the reader to absorb an extraordinary amount of information in a relatively painless manner.
Mitchell notes that these events were not revolutions in the classic sense, because their changes in leadership have not fundamentally changed the anti-democratic strategies of these governments. This book provides a useful empirical account of some of the strategies and dynamics that might leave democratic transitions in limbo. For example, a change in leadership does not mean a change to democracy, what he calls “revolutionary events without revolutionary outcomes” (pp. 195–97). Consolidation of a regime is not limited to democracies—it may also take place in non-democracies, with a peaceful change in leadership, but a preservation of non-democratic routines (p. 189). In theoretical terms, readers can easily see this discussion as a contribution to the literature on competitive authoritarianism, even if this literature is not fully explored by the book.
The book should be particularly useful for those interested in the success or failure of policies of democracy promotion. Mitchell highlights a crucial paradox for democracy promotion projects, in their efforts to be simultaneously visible and invisible. They must be visible in order to claim “measurable” outcomes of their efforts and insure ongoing funding for their work. But they also try to be invisible, claiming to Russia that they have done nothing to foster the Colored Revolutions (pp. 75–79, 81–91)—or recent demonstrations in Moscow. The closing down of the USAID's Russian programs demonstrates that Russian officials are more convinced of their visibility. The book presents solid coverage of the interactive nature of these states' events, including how activists travelled between these locations and engaged in “cross-fertilization.” Some of these diffusion activities were funded by American non-governmental organizations. While well-intentioned, such involvement was often viewed as “inappropriate” by Russia (p. 84), especially in light of official statements by the US soon after the Cold War that it would respect Russia's role in the former Soviet sphere (pp. 133, 142). When the leaderships produced by the Colored Revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine began to demand NATO membership, the Russians perceived these moves as an overt violation of these boundaries (pp. 100–3).
While a policymaking audience will appreciate the book's readability, the book could develop more of its theoretical contributions from a scholarly perspective. There are a few places where the discussion has a useful grounding in theory—in the consideration of revolutions in Chapter 1 and in a few-page discussion of transitions that concludes the book. However, much of the relevant scholarly literature is banished to an appendix, where it is unable to provide a strong context for the premises of the argument. Partly related to this placement, general concepts could be presented in a more complete fashion. As one example, there is an assertion that the pre-Color-Revolution regimes were not fully “authoritarian” but there should be a more in-depth consideration of what authoritarianism or competitive authoritarianism might be in relation to the literature (pp. 115, 139, and 141). Other concepts that could have been more developed for more depth of discussion include “accountability” (p. 118), “patronage regime” (p. 119), and “state building” (p. 129). There are ample debates in the literature on the nature of these concepts, and it would be useful to make them fully available to a policy-reading audience—especially within the context of the other insights offered by the author. There is some discussion regarding the way in which weak states fostered the Colored Revolutions, but the aspects that constitute strong versus weak state deserve stronger consideration for this insight to be fully realized (pp. 12, 29, 156, and 164).
In contrast to the book's clearly-written style, there are occasional references that assume more knowledge than even scholarly readers might have, to concepts such as “Skocpol's framework” (p. 10) and “semidemocratic hybrid regimes” (p. 43) without an explanation or further discussion of these terms in the book. For either a policy or a scholarly audience, it would have been useful to have a stronger description of the electoral systems at issue. Without these general descriptions, some of the terminology can be cumbersome: the “national list system” (pp. 45, 53, and 120) is usually described in the field as a proportional representation system, or PR, while the “single mandate” system is the majoritarian or first-past-the-post system. These are primarily semantic issues, as there is astute coverage of the implications of some of the different systems for political dynamics.
The organization of the book by themes rather than by country is overall a positive feature of the book, as it is more engaging for the reader than trying to get through long chapter blocks on each place in turn. However, this thematic structure occasionally lends itself to repetition as certain details of the narrative fit into more than one theme. The thematic structure may imply that some repetition is unavoidable, but at times it seems the book's narrative might be shortened somewhat.
In spite of the general well-researched nature of the cases, there are some points where the empirical discussion should have been handled more carefully. Most importantly, it was surprising to see an omission in the Orange Revolution discussion regarding the poisoning of Viktor Yushchenko in the relevant sections on Ukraine on pp. 48–52 and 59–61. This incident was a crucial aspect of these events, and there were also different perceptions of this event within the different electoral camps. In addition, the discussion mentions that the use of violence was not a threat in Ukraine (p. 146), but this was not the case as represented in media accounts at the time. There are also some editing issues, including cited sources that are missing from the bibliography. Maps would have also been a useful addition to the book as well.
Overall, this was an extremely useful book that I will be glad to use in my classes, and I would recommended it particularly to those working in the area of foreign policy and democracy promotion programs. In addition to its strong and detailed coverage of the Colored Revolutions, it provides a timely discussion of elite strategies to prevent leadership changes in Azerbaijan, Belarus, and Iran. The events of the Arab Spring also make more sense in the context of these insights. In Egypt, the new government has moved to restrict the activities of non-governmental organizations promoting democracy and human rights, only a few short months after its own optimistic transition. If we are now entering a phase in which transitions without democratization become the norm, this book will provide a useful roadmap of the details of how such dynamics might work.
