This edited book from Andrew E. Busch and William G. Mayer pulls together an outstanding collection of thoughtful essays focused on three questions that the Grand Old Party (GOP) must consider in advance of the 2024 presidential election. First, did the presidency of Donald Trump positively affect the Republican Party? Second, which elements of Trump’s presidency should be retained, and which should be abandoned? And finally, how can the answers to these questions enhance the probability of a White House and congressional victory for Republicans in the next election cycle?
The sharp focus on Republican politics and the party’s future prospects will both please and exasperate any conservative or libertarian wrestling with “The Donald’s” continuing grip on the GOP. This book will also be of interest to Trump’s detractors and Democrats wishing to glean insight into future electoral battles. Intertwined throughout are critical issues that consider the former president’s electoral viability, intraparty divisions, the challenges of election integrity, and whether the phenomenon of “Trumpism” is possible without Trump himself, as rising stars in the party like Ron DeSantis or Kristi Noem eye a White House run.
The eminently readable chapters are more prescriptive and normative in orientation than theoretical. A major strength of the book is the degree to which they represent an impressively balanced and diverse set of perspectives about Trump’s populist leadership style, policy accomplishments, and divisive approach to electoral politics and governance. One liability of the book, through no fault of the editors or contributors, is that the chapters were written before the 2022 midterm elections. Thus, the authors’ analyses and prognostications of Trump’s relative influence on the success of the GOP are limited to Biden’s first year in office and are not directly tested in the most recent national electoral contest. From an alternative view, however, the book beckons readers to juxtapose the authors’ observations and judgments with the outcome of the elections last November in which a “red wave” failed to materialize. Some of the most stunning losses, including Senate races in Georgia and Pennsylvania and gubernatorial races in Arizona and New Hampshire, were of Trump-backed outsider candidates who sought to borrow from the former president’s stylistic and rhetorical playbook.
Several chapters argue that Trump’s personality and approach to politics are a net liability, while accentuating a fundamental conundrum for Republicans. Steven E. Schier’s “Pick Your Battles Wisely—Trump Did Not” contends that Trump’s shortcomings outweigh his advantages for a 2024 White House bid. His narcissism, penchant for unnecessary conflict, fanciful embrace of conspiracy theories, and affiliation with fringe elements harm the party’s chances for victory if he is renominated. Schier opines that Republicans must “gradually move beyond Trump himself” to “retain the electoral and policy benefits of Trumpism” (p. 1). Here is the proverbial box in which the GOP finds itself: the “sad fate of the Republican Party is that it cannot prosper without Trumpism but also cannot prosper with Trump” (p. 9).
John J. Pitney’s chapter titled “What Is Trumpism?” similarly posits that Trump’s abrasive personality is a potentially insurmountable liability for the GOP in expanding its future share of the electorate. Pitney contends that Trump’s “performative patriotism,” alongside his protectionist trade policies, isolationism, and an exploitation of “aversive partisanship,” does not represent a coherent ideology. Furthermore, his uneven policy legacy and belief in unbridled executive power eschew constitutional precepts on checks and balances. “Trumpism is simpler than Madisonianism” (p. 63), and without guiding principles Republicans cannot be a party of ideas.
William G. Mayer’s chapter, “Some Great Political Genius: How Donald Trump Damaged the Republican Party,” uses opinion and presidential approval data to substantiate the proposition that, if renominated in 2024, “Trump will be an almost certain loser in the general election” (p. 101). Mayer highlights how Trump’s personality flaws—most notably, dishonesty, mendacity, and narcissism—and his “politically foolish and self-destructive” (p. 83) conduct place a ceiling on his electoral appeal. “The challenge for Republican candidates,” he writes, “is to avoid being linked closely with Trump while still retaining the votes of his many enthusiasts within the Republican Party” (pp. 99–100).
Other chapters are less critical of Trump’s policy legacy and more sanguine about his imprint on Republican Party politics. In “The Republican Way Forward: Four Questions for 2024,” James E. Campbell maintains that it is imperative to separate Trump’s message of “nationalist-populist conservatism” (p. 14) from the messenger himself. Using an array of electoral data, Campbell underscores Trump’s appeal to various factions in the party, as well as gains in his support among minorities. Campbell’s elegant decision tree for the Republican nomination in 2024 (p. 23) suggests that Republicans’ best option is a candidate with Trump’s support, while the worst option is a candidate lacking Trump’s full support. Noteworthy (and commendable) is Campbell’s intrepid discussion of the need for election integrity in light of irregularities in 2020 ignored by the media and dismissed as conspiracy theory.
In “Expanding the Republican Coalition: Four Lessons from the Trump Presidency,” John H. Hinderaker avows that Trump’s ability “to explain convincingly to middle- and working-class Americans that he was on their side” (p. 108) is his greatest legacy—and a quality that future GOP candidates should emulate. The author also lauds Trump’s “America first” policies at home and abroad. Echoing Campbell, he emphasizes that Republicans must be the party of election integrity in light of Democrats’ 2020 tactic of using COVID-19 as “an excuse to change election laws in many states, arguably illegally, to make them more lax” (p. 107). However, Hinderaker counsels Republicans to abjure Trump’s fiscal irresponsibility and deficit spending.
Several chapters are noteworthy for novel perspectives on Trump’s legacy. Charles R. Kesler’s insightful essay, “Trump, the Republican Party, and American Conservatism: Retrospect and Prospect,” situates the forty-fifth president historically, noting that he was not a “movement Republican.” Rather, Trump espoused a type of conservatism linked to figures such as William McKinley, William Howard Taft, and Calvin Coolidge on issues such as immigration and the role of business. Glen Harlan Reynolds’s chapter “Donald Trump and America’s New Class War” places Trump’s populist appeal in comparative context, linking the phenomenon to dissatisfaction with elites in democracies elsewhere. Reynolds asserts that “Trump is the symptom of a ruling class that many of the ruled no longer see as serving their interest” (p. 76).
The chapter by David Brady, Morris Fiorina, and Douglas Rivers, “The Future of the Republican Party: 2022, 2024, and Beyond,” presents a bevy of ideological, public opinion, and electoral data. The authors demonstrate convincingly how control of the White House and Congress is determined by a “sliver of a sliver of the electorate” (p. 51). Of note is Trump’s disproportionate impact on congressional candidate selection.
Andrew E. Busch’s final chapter, “The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly,” summarizes one of the most essential drawbacks of Trump’s political style. “While Trump’s policies opposed authoritarianism…his character pointed in a different direction” (p. 144). Busch suggests that future Republican hopefuls avoid the toxic elements of Trump’s divisive leadership approach and exploit incumbent Joe Biden’s failures by emphasizing fiscal responsibility and a stable foreign policy, national unity, fundamental rights, and limited government.
This book is a serious and thought-provoking attempt to reconcile both the legacy and the future of the GOP as Trump continues to cast a long shadow over the party. Whether the GOP’s prospects will be eclipsed by Trump’s liabilities remains a critical question.
