The balance of power is the core principle of the Realist approach to international relations (IR). It is the thread tying classical Realism to the neorealist approach that has dominated the study of international politics in the last two decades; it is seen either as a necessary practice or as an inevitable feature of the international system. Though definitions are multiple, “there is a core meaning to the concept,” namely “the interaction among states that assures the survival of the system by preventing the empire or hegemony of any state or coalition of states.”1
The main alternative to Realism is Liberal IR theory, whether of the institutionalist or the domestic variant.2 Much of Liberal theory has focused on possibilities of mitigating the claimed malign effects of the balance of power or of constructing alternatives to it.3Instead, I argue that the balance of power is a Liberal prediction—arguably a defining Liberal principle, underlying Liberal constitutionalism as much as Liberal economics. Yet today, Liberalism in IR is identified with idealism, moralism, or utilitarianism. Similarly, in domestic politics, Liberalism has shifted to a rationalist, democratic, and utilitarian model—especially in the Anglo-American context.4
In European politics, the equivalent position is known as social democracy.
I use the adjective “realist” to refer to the common language usage of the term, i.e. a concern with reality as it most commonly is, not as it normatively should be. I use the noun “Realism” to refer to the theory in international relations.
Wolin calls the prevailing view a “vulgar caricature of Liberalism”; Wolin 2004, 263.
Keohane has consistently emphasized this point (Keohane 1990, 166), but Realists typically see this as a sign of theoretical subordination; Mearsheimer 1994–5, 24. See also the “realist Liberalism” of Herz 1951, 129.
Vasquez and Elman 2003.
Yet, a balance of forces allowing selfish interests to aggregate to socially optimal outcomes has been the key mechanism of classical Liberal theory. From Madison's shrewd analysis of factional politics to Adam Smith's conception of the market, this has been the promise of Liberal theory, as I argue in the first part of this article.9
As discussed below, the Liberal prediction has been qualified in both politics and economics.
Rosecrance 1963.
Thucydides 1991, Machiavelli 1988, Mackinder 1919, Spykman 1942, Organski and Kugler 1980, Gilpin 1981, Schweller 1994, Mearsheimer 2001.
There is a further overlapping distinction, between liberals and conservatives. Conservatives are often realists who accept this “natural” tendency as just the way things are, but claim we may be better off that way (in this general spirit, see Posner 2003). Liberal realists also accept that such a tendency is pervasive, but that is why they believe that the more modern arsenal of Liberal-democratic mechanisms (deliberation, state intervention, international organizations, etc.) is necessary to buttress the institutional dynamics.
That Realism in IR is predicated on the balance of power is an interesting paradox: in American politics, a realist view is associated with a sharp critique of the equilibrium prediction. Schattschneider, in his classic The Semi-Sovereign People: A Realist's View of Democracy in America, warned that Liberal pluralist politics was undermined by concentrations of power: when political issues are removed from the public sphere to fora where private groups wield overwhelming power, outcomes become biased in favor of the few.14
Schattschneider's ultimate aim was to defend the pursuit of the public interest instead; Schattschneider 1960. It should be noted that there is no self-described “realist” school in American politics.
Distinguishing Realism and Liberalism based on outcomes is preferable, since the two theories do not differ on preferences.15
Which is not to say that preferences do not matter—they are key to any explanation, just not, I argue, the basis on which to distinguish the two theories in question.
Structural realist approaches, which reject human nature explanations, invoke the preference for survival as a foundational assumption; Waltz 1979, Mearsheimer 2001. But self-preservation emerged as a core principle of behavior in early modern thought; it was shared both by “realists”, such as Hobbes, “Liberals” such as Locke, and natural law thinkers, such as Grotius. Even at the structural level, therefore, realists cannot be distinguished from their opponents based on this assumption. Rational choice and institutional theories have also emphasized the self-interested basis of human action, and this is also seen as a concession to Realism. Instead, it is the common heritage of all these approaches from the early modern insight that self-interest is the most consistent, though surely not the only, motive of human action.
Keohane's recent statements are very close to the classical Liberal position outlined here; Keohane 2001. My argument offers a political theory-based justification for the integration among fields articulated in Martin and Simmons 1998 and Milner 1998.
The literature here is too voluminous to list. I will make indicative references in the relevant sections.
A major obstacle to such revision is that balance of power is viewed as a conservative principle in domestic politics and in economics since at least the mid-twentieth century, longer in IR. However, the politics of balancing may be reconsidered. Balancing to avoid hegemony and domination captures a core Liberal insight, as the “imperial,” unipolar foreign policy witnessed of late has highlighted. So, although conservatives and Realists have appropriated the idea of a balance in domestic politics and IR, this can be challenged. This is a distinct theoretical claim of this article, making it part of a general effort to reconsider the classical Liberal tradition.19
Any Liberal theory true to its intentions needs to integrate both its classical origins and its democratic, normative modern orientation. At the same time, this revision also helps to revitalize the powerful Realist counterargument, that concentrations of power are a recurrent feature of the international realm.Balance of power is also conceived as conservative due to its assumed tension with a key Liberal idea, natural or human rights. However, rights are only in conflict with Realpolitik—and Realpolitic and balance of power are only contingently associated, as I later show, though we fail to appreciate this. In theory, balance of power only requires efficient alliance formation to preserve the autonomy of each unit. In practice, of course, it has often involved pragmatic, even unethical, politics. But then, in practice, establishment of political or human rights has often involved not just pragmatic politics, but injustice and violence as well.20
I first offer evidence that the balance of power is a core principle of Liberal theory by looking at the work of Adam Smith, Kant, and Madison (other principles are, of course, not excluded).21
A strong caveat is necessary here: an author is not a theory. Authors may address different aspects of reality within the same work, requiring separate theoretical perspectives, or they may revise their thought over time. A theory, by contrast, is defined through a logical core which may not be co-extensive with any given work. It is this core that I seek to extract by comparing writings on economy, philosophy, and politics. It is no objection, therefore, to point to “republican” or “illiberal” aspects of Kant's thought, as can legitimately be done, since this article is not a defense of Kant as a Liberal, but an extraction of Liberal principles that coexisted with others in his work, not always and necessarily compatible.
Liberalism: Politics as a Non-Cooperative Game
Liberalism is a political philosophy that upholds personal freedom as the paramount value of individuals and society and the overriding goal of the state.22
“Liberalism has only one overriding aim: to secure the political conditions that are necessary for the exercise of personal freedom”; Shklar 1989, 21. See also Hoffmann 1987, 395.
Waldron 1987a. This distinction overlaps with the dual normative and institutional character of Liberalism itself: “From its birth, Liberalism as a political theory was an unstable compound of radical and conservative elements”; Ashcraft 1993, 249.
Understanding the real foundations of Liberalism requires jettisoning some deeply entrenched beliefs about the theory of Liberalism, especially that it assumes a “rational” and “malleable” human nature and that it leads to a “natural harmony of interests,” to progress and perfectibility, often through economic determinism. These are instead radical principles of the French Enlightenment, as well as of idealism, socialism, and, not least, Marxism.25
They do not even fully describe the utilitarian transformation of Liberalism, which I address later. By contrast, Liberal conceptions of human nature are predicated on fear; all Liberals, including early utilitarians, believed “man was a creature of strong passions.”26 Self-interest was itself the product of passions, such as the “desire” to better one's condition, which was motivated by vanity and the need for societal approval but achieved through prudence.27See Smith 1976b, II.iii.28; 1976a, I.iii.2.1. Available online at http://oll.libertyfund.org.
As a result, early theorists did not expect that a Liberal polity would result from any “natural” propensity of citizens to abide by laws, nor from the benevolence and self-restraint of rulers, the normative weight of institutions, or a natural harmony. Nor did classical Liberalism entail a commitment to progress, as commonly assumed. It simply upheld the right of individuals to live as they saw fit, even if that meant adherence to traditional values.28
This is emphasized in Ryan 1993, 294. See also Holmes 1995. Liberalism is pessimistic about power; it anticipates conflict and abuse of power at any level of political organization and whatever the form of social relations (unlike Marxism). But this in no way precludes progress in social relations themselves.
Berlin 2002, 42. For modern statements of Liberalism along those lines, see Galston 1995, Rawls 1996, Shapiro 1999.
Toulmin 1990.
So, as a historical movement, Liberalism emerged in the seventeenth century in the context of political developments that highlighted the limits of reason. It inherited the dark, amoral view of human nature painted by Machiavelli—shorn of classical and Christian assumptions of perfectibility and inherent virtue, as well as of the moralistic pessimism of Augustinianism—as did most modern natural law as a whole.31
Locke assumed the natural sociability of man; this feature of his thought, however, referred to the normative foundations of natural law, not the institutional framework designed to secure it. Locke provided one of the foremost defenses of the separation of powers, which would not be necessary if power was not also assumed to corrupt; Locke 1988, II, 128, 143.
Montesquieu 1989. Hirschman 1977, in his classic account, showed how self-interest—today conceived as a negative incentive that needs to be overcome or restrained—was at the time a positive, liberating force. It replaced irrational passion, which brooked no compromise and led to zero-sum conflict.
Mandeville 1924b; though Liberals, like Smith, did not see self-interest, rightly understood, as a vice.
Core principles of Liberalism should best inform the definition of the theory in IR, if the term is not to lose coherence. The balancing, countervailing mechanism that secures liberty offers such a necessary organizing principle. However, IR Realists will doubt that the domestic version of Liberalism I outline is relevant to the international level. What of anarchy, which they assume makes international institutions powerless and irrelevant?34
I do not underestimate the importance of international institutions; for the sake of this argument, I take Realist claims at face value, that institutions are insignificant in security issues (as opposed to international economics). For a rebuttal, see Keohane and Martin 1995. I show the integral relation of international institutions to equilibrium theory in the section “Liberalism, Old and New”.
Still, for such critics, even if the international system works similarly to the economy, the connection I posit with the domestic level breaks down: the domestic is a constructed order, and the international and economic ones are, apparently, not. However, the domestic order only appears to differ in needing a constructed structure; in fact, all levels depend on institutions to function. Economic markets work efficiently due to a robust institutional structure that guarantees, at the very least, efficient legislation for the enforcement of contracts and the protection of property—in short, government.35
Economic equilibrium is thus not “spontaneously generated” (as in Waltz 1979, 90—but c.f. his own critique of this notion in Waltz 1962, 339). As Polanyi has masterfully shown, only collusion, demands for protectionism, and other market-restricting activities are spontaneously generated. The “free” market only emerged when concerted political action was applied; Polanyi 1962. I pursue this insight in my own work on the emergence of parliaments, constitutionalism and the market economy; Boucoyannis 2005.
Ignored for long, institutions are now widely acknowledged by economists as crucial; Coase 1937, 1992; Acemoglu and Robinson 2005.
Conversely, states cannot balance efficiently without a robust political and economic infrastructure at the domestic level that allows them to act as sovereign units in the first place.37
IR scholars beholden to a “black-box” view of the state take institutions for granted, but this is a theoretical assumption, not a claim about the world. Waltz, though frequently identified with this view, wrote an early and acclaimed, but now relatively overlooked, book on the implications of variation in domestic institutional design for the conduct of foreign policy; Waltz 1967.
The constructed domestic order is thus not simplistically transposed to the international one. The argument is that an institutional structure needs to be given; there are no assumptions about which level institutions are to be found at.
As a result, the international level appears to provide the best instantiation of the “institution-less” equilibrium prediction we can observe. After all, despite the many critiques that can be waged against balance of power theory, world hegemony has always been thwarted by apparently “bottom-up,” “spontaneous” individual (state) action—just as a simplistic laissez-faire model would predict.39
In reality, to repeat, action is never fully spontaneous in either the economy, or the international system. In the latter, international institutions have played increasingly crucial roles, especially in information-processing, though not as much in a balancing function; Keohane 1984.
Below, I will show first that balances underlie Liberal prescriptions of institutional design in both politics and economics, by examining the Federalist Papers and the writings of Adam Smith. Then I trace the same logic in some of Kant's writings on international politics. In the last part of this section of the paper, I will explain how this older Liberalism relates to contemporary definitions.
American Constitutionalism
The balancing mechanism took its most mature political form in the writings of the Federalists and the structure of American government.40
This is a highly simplified picture of a very complicated system, which does not address some of the core qualifications necessary, mainly concerning the values necessarily underlying the design and policing of the Liberal order. Deliberation is also crucial for any “equilibrium” to emerge, in a way that mirrors the role of bargaining in economic equilibria. The literature is huge, but does not amount to a rejection of the constitutional arrangement, only to its refinement and greater realism. See Shklar 1984, Tarcov 1984, Galston 1988, Kloppenberg 1987, Mansbridge 1990, Sunstein 1990, Huntington 1981.
Madison [1788] 1987. Different standards were expected of representatives, as well as of the drafters of the Constitution, of course: politicians had to conform to a higher standard of impartiality, “coolness” and integrity (Federalist Nos. 41, 63). Hence the importance of filtering in securing able politicians. An important distinction thus needs to be drawn between the imperatives on those designing the institutions and those operating within them; Bailyn 1992, 369. The same in fact applies to the economic sphere, and, contrary to common perceptions, this was understood even by early economic thinkers; Mandeville 1924a, 320–1, 369; Rosenberg 1963. However, if the end of government was justice, it was a justice serving not civic virtue or morality, but the new order of personal rights, especially property rights (Federalist 51, 54)—the order articulated in Locke's Second Treatise; Locke 1988. Madison, like Locke, thought the government served as umpire in the disputes that arise in the modern, commercial society described by Hamilton (Federalist Nos. 43 and 12; see Kramnick 1987, 55–6).
The Federalists dealt with the problem of faction mainly in two structural-institutional ways. First, they instituted a large republic with a representative system that would allow multiple interests to balance each other (Federalist No. 10).42
Balance of power and the republican notion of the mixed constitution differ in important respects. “Balance implies the mutual but equal antagonism of various interests, whereas mixture implies their joint action,” as noted by Tuck in the context of Guicciardini, when the distinction first emerged; Tuck 1993, 95.
The separation of powers had a long history (Vile 1967); it was also part of the republican arsenal, which in the early stages of the American Revolution competed with ideas later called Liberal in the constitution of the new state. The critical difference is that in the Liberal model the balancing does not occur within a homogeneous body of virtuous citizens, but between a heterogeneous mass of individuals pursuing their interests; the foundation of the system has changed, as had the social order itself; Wood 1969, ch. 6.
ambition must be made to counteract ambition. The interest of the man must be connected with the constitutional rights of the place… This policy of supplying, by opposite and rival interests, the defect of better motives, might be traced through the whole system of human affairs, private as well as public.44
Federalist No. 51, 319–20; emphasis added.
In the twentieth century the balancing principle, though transformed in important ways, remained central in the new public philosophy of “interest-group Liberalism,” the dominant paradigm in American politics that adjusted pluralism and capitalism to the dynamics of industrial society.45
Lowi 1979.
Bentley 1908, 169.
Dahl 1982.
Schlozman 1984.
McFarland 2004.
Economic Liberalism
The assumption of self-interest aggregating to the social welfare underlies the economic Liberalism of the eighteenth century.52
The term “Liberalism” was coined in the nineteenth century. Its use here does not imply any anachronistic projection of the extremes of laissez faire to Smith's period, but is justified by Smith's concern to secure “perfect liberty”; Smith 1976b, I.x.a.1. It is also distinct from “republicanism,” which some scholars have introduced in an effort to recover Smith's “politics”; Winch 1978. But Winch claimed to show no more than a theoretical context for Smith's positions (Winch 1978, 48). On the core issues that separate Liberalism from republicanism, interest vs. virtue, standing armies vs. citizen militias, division of labor/constitutional machinery vs. active citizenry, Smith was, as a forerunner, on the side of Liberalism; Wood 1969, 69; Rothschild 2001, 233; Fleischacker 2004, 96; Winch 1978, 177. The “politics” of Smith provide the necessary conditions for his system to work, but they are to be found in “natural jurisprudence” and its emphasis on the “science of the legislator”; Hont and Ignatieff 1983; Haakonssen 1981.
Capitalism, of course, cannot and does not rely only on self-interest; Mueller 2001. Smith's Theory of Moral Sentiments (Smith 1976a) is often, but mistakenly, thought to articulate a different conception of human nature. In The Theory, it is the “inner man's” capacity for sympathy and independent judgment that produces the “impartial spectator,” and which allows men to transcend their selfish passions and form moral judgments. But this is an answer to a question altogether different than the one posed in The Wealth of Nations. It concerns justice, which is at the core of Smith's thinking as a whole (Fleischacker 1999), and crucially underlies the effective operation of the state. However, this is not explicitly theorized in The Wealth. The claim that there is an “Adam Smith problem” assumes that society and the economy should be governed by the same logic; but this is a modern, conservative assumption, a view alien to Smith. The question here is not about the foundations of Smith's moral economy (Kalyvas and Katznelson 2001), but about which understanding he thought sufficient for explaining how nations grew rich.
On conspiracies, see Smith 1976b, I.x.c.27; for the mercantilist and exploitative actions of merchants and manufacturers, see IV.ii.16, IV.viii.4
Smith 1976b, IV.ii.9, emphasis added. In their effort to distance Smith from Hayek and the libertarians, some scholars have denied that Smith relied on the invisible hand mechanism, since “the term occurs only once” in The Wealth of Nations; Blaug 2001, 153. Smith certainly does not invoke the mechanism with respect to the emergence of markets as a whole. But he invoked it “in many other cases.” For instance, this is how feudal society was transformed into a commercial one; Smith 1976b, III.iv.10–18, I.ii.2, III.iv.17, IV.ii.4 and 1976a, IV.i.10. Smith is removed from most libertarian thought in his historical depth, but not that distant from either Ferguson or Mandeville. His critique of the latter, for instance, targeted Mandeville's wholesale dismissal of all virtues as selfish vices, not his “system of natural philosophy,” which, “in some respects bordered upon the truth”; Smith 1976a, 313, 308–14.
A major misconception is that Smith predicted a “spontaneous balance” in the economy as a whole, whereas in fact he saw it only in well-circumscribed domains. For instance, in price formation, an equilibrating mechanism ensured that the natural price adjusted to allow supply to meet effectual demand. Similarly, in the labor market, the advantages and disadvantages of the different employments of labor and stock would “in the same neighbourhood, be either perfectly equal or continually tending to equality.” Yet, the process was thwarted by the restrictions on labor imposed by guilds and corporations with the aim of limiting competition and keeping wages high—what Smith called the “Policy of Europe.”56
See Smith 1976b, I.vii.8–16, I.x.b–c, I.x.a.1. Smith's labor theory of value was replaced by the neoclassical subjective scarcity theory of value. Moreover, he is not describing perfect competition between price-taking firms (only developed by Cournot in 1838).
Further, as I expand in the section “Liberalism, Old and New,” Smith understood that equilibrium solutions were undermined by the incentive structure of mercantile groups. Nevertheless, his ideas were transmitted in the nineteenth century in a simplified way, and “spontaneous equilibrium” degenerated into the extreme forms of laissez-faire. This free-market orthodoxy was radically challenged by the crisis of the 1930s; penetrating critiques of the system pushed laissez-faire to the conservative side of the spectrum.57
Ruggie 1982.
However, the balancing mechanism still underlies qualified defenses of the Liberal capitalist system: in Galbraith's theory, the concentration of power in the hands of capitalists would be offset by the “countervailing power” of trade unions, supplier and consumer organizations, and government regulation. Economists continued to seek mathematical proof of the existence of the perfectly competitive equilibrium, only achieved by Arrow and Debreu in the 1950s. Recent developments in the new information economics seek to redress market failures in order to approximate equilibrium conditions. And even within the most radical challenge to the unrealistic assumptions of orthodox economics—complexity theory and agent-based simulation—we find an attempt towards a better-grounded, dynamic account of general equilibrium.59
International Liberalism
In international politics, following Doyle's seminal article, most analyses of Kant's Liberal theory of international politics have focused on the three Definitive Articles for Perpetual Peace: a republican constitution, a federation of free states, and a cosmopolitan right to hospitality.60
Doyle 1986. Nineteenth-century Liberals did not consider Kant a Liberal, given his rejection of natural rights and conception of reason, but the association is common in post-Rawlsian political theory, and is pervasive in IR theory—his “illiberal” elements, in any case, do not affect the ideas analyzed here.
Cederman offers the most faithful quantitative exposition of Kant's argument, one which effectively rebuts naïve critiques of the democratic peace argument. The logic he articulates, however, focuses on different elements in Kant's thought; Cederman 2001.
Doyle 1997, 278 ff.
Kant 1983b, 120.
After admitting that war “appears to be ingrained in human nature,” Kant outlines this mechanical process, which operates on three levels: the formation of republics, their interaction as separate nations, and the effects of trade. On the first two levels, the process is clearly predicated on the balancing principle. For the formation of republics, Kant rejects two common beliefs, that “a republic must be a nation of angels,” and that “men's self-seeking inclinations make them incapable of adhering to so sublime a form of government.” Rather, the cunning of nature marshals these “inclinations” and thus assists reason, which is “impotent in practice.” Full rationality may not be in man's power but “organizing the nation well” is. These “self-seeking inclinations” are so arranged in opposition within the state “that they are able to direct their power against one another, and one inclination is able to check or cancel the destructive tendencies of the others.” Each inclination is thus neutralized by its counterpart, and “man, even though he is not morally good, is forced to be a good citizen.” So “even for a people comprised of devils,” government can be created “if only [these devils] possess understanding.” The problem of government for Kant is a Stag Hunt: rational beings “require universal laws for their preservation”; but “each is secretly inclined to exempt himself from such laws.” Therefore, government must be organized in such a way that, while men's “private attitudes conflict,” self-interests “so cancel one another that these beings behave publicly just as if they had no such evil attitudes” at all.64
Kant 1983c, 124.
Habermas 1989, 109; Cavallar 1999, 39. The concept has not been without its critics, of course; Bohman and Lutz-Bachmann 1997.
The same balancing mechanism will lead towards eventual peace at the international level. It is predicated on the existence of “many separate, independent” nations. It thus ensures that a “soulless despotism” of a “universal monarchy” does not emerge. It is, moreover, naturally ordained: even though every nation would desire an enduring peace under its domination, i.e. hegemony, “nature wills otherwise. She uses two means to prevent peoples from intermingling and to separate them, differences in language and religion, which do indeed dispose men to mutual hatred and to pretexts for war … Unlike that peace that despotism (in the graveyard of freedom) brings about by vitiating all powers, this one is produced and secured by an equilibrium of the liveliest competing powers.”66
Kant 1983c, 124–5. The sentence I omit is conceptually separate from the balancing argument. It draws upon the idealist strand of Kant's thought that postulated evolutionary rationality and progress. The Liberal mechanism, instead, draws on a static equilibrium model, and as in Madison, does not depend on a transformation of preferences. Kant combines both (as should modern Liberals). He interjects, “But the growth of culture and men's gradual progress toward greater agreement regarding their principles lead to mutual understanding and peace.” For an informed account of this strand in Kant's thought, which focuses on the similarities of Waltz and Kant without drawing the same conclusions, see Harrison 2002.
The practical mechanisms in Kant's scheme have been neglected, especially so in IR. Kant's idealism partly accounts for this, but it is also because Kant described, rather famously, the balance of power in international politics as a “mere figment of the imagination, like Swift's house, whose architect built it so perfectly in accord with all the laws of equilibrium that as soon as a sparrow lit on it, it fell in.”67
Kant 1983a, 89, emphasis original.
Kant's “realism” was noted by Waltz in an early and astute article, where it is treated as an exception among the generally optimistic Liberal philosophy of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. “While Kant may be seen as a backsliding Liberal, he may also be considered a theorist of power politics who hid his Machiavellian ideas by hanging round them the fashionable garments of Liberalism.” In the light of my analysis, this element in Kant is not an anomaly, nor an instance of concealed beliefs, but a natural extension of a long-standing tradition based on the balancing mechanism.68
Waltz 1962, 331. In fact, Waltz's remark may apply to himself, in reverse. As I suggest below, Waltz's balancing theory is inherently Liberal. However, he hung round it the unfashionable garments of Realism, to divest it from any tinges of idealism. In fact, the popularity of Waltz's work may suggest that the garment was not that unfashionable after the 1980s, as seen by its appeal to differing audiences.
I have argued that Liberalism relies on a specific prediction about how narrow interest aggregates at the collective level. This core intuition is found across different authors, varying greatly in orientation, subject, and period. Yet my account will seem troubling to most IR scholars, if not irrelevant to the traditional definitions in the field. It goes against common perceptions of Liberalism as synonymous with rationality, malleability, progress, harmony, cooperation, and optimism—in other words, for some, with gullibility and naivety. Is my account then misguided? I argue that these common perceptions have unduly limited the scope of Liberalism, by neglecting the mechanism that generated the success of Liberal politics in public life. The perceptions reflect instead two separate traditions that were gradually identified with Liberalism: idealism and utilitarianism. Most contemporary Liberal IR has strong utilitarian roots and a rationalist core.69
I cannot deal with the idealist heritage within the limits of this article; the topic is rich, and of increasing importance. I have chosen to focus on utilitarianism instead as it contains many of the core elements of the debates in the last few decades.
Liberalism, Old and New
When Realists inveigh against the naivety and optimism of Liberalism, it is instead utilitarianism, rationalism, idealism, or moralism that they have in mind.70
Today, these theories are considered part of a “new” Liberalism, whilst classical Liberalism is seen as a conservative theory, and thus akin to Realism. I will show that these new theories are “non-liberal” in some key respects and that such a conflation or misnaming of the old and new is problematic. At the same time, however, I will argue that the classical version of Liberalism shares with the more progressive contemporary one a concern with inequalities and distributional failures. On these important dimensions, classical Liberalism lies closer to what today we call Liberalism than to conservative approaches that take steep inequalities as naturally given and inevitable features of social organization—indeed, this can be taken as a litmus test to distinguish the two political sensibilities. In other words, we need to reclaim the progressive aspects of the classical Liberal vision from conservative misinterpretations. Any robust vision of Liberalism for the future needs to reconcile the old and the new.Take, for instance, the claim that Liberalism predicts peace through commercial interdependence. This notion in fact stems from the radical utilitarian assumption of the beneficial effects of trade at the international level, a view expounded by Bentham, but more emphatically by Cobden and the Manchester School.71
Grampp 1960; for a modern variant, see Rosecrance 1986. But the concept had a long history; Hirschman 1977, Montesquieu 1989, Pincus 1998.
Keynes 1926, 10, 22.
Carr 1946, 43–6.
Smith 1976b, IV.iii.c.11.
But he clearly stated that the same trends also caused deep conflicts among powerful countries that could not be easily overcome, and that the establishment of full free trade was a utopian expectation even for the Britain of his time: it ran against “the insolent outrage of furious and disappointed monopolists.” At the same time, he described how technological developments made “modern war” an expensive enterprise, in which only a wealthy nation could succeed. And he affirmed it was the duty of the sovereign to provide for such needs by a standing army, as the only means through which “the civilization of any country can be perpetuated, or even preserved for any considerable time.” The “wealth of a neighboring nation” was “certainly advantageous in trade”, but “dangerous in war and politicks.”75
For conflict between countries and opposition by monopolists, see Smith 1976b, IV.iii.c.13, IV.ii.43. For “modern war”, see V.i.a.39–40, IV.iii.c.11.
The old and the new Liberalisms thus have important differences: traits currently seen as Liberal are utilitarian in origin. The two approaches are in considerable tension, in fact. Utilitarianism, as modified in contemporary understandings, is distinguished by two assumptions.76
I am using the term “utilitarian” in the loose sense it is conceived of in IR and the social sciences, where it is taken to denote a rationalist, instrumental, materialist theory of behavior; see Ruggie 1998. The Benthamite concept of utility, psychological and not essentially rationalist, was rejected in neoclassical economics; Stigler 1950. Subsequent versions of the concept were cardinal, ordinal, and subjective expected utility (the latter under conditions of uncertainty).
Halévy 1928, 180. Some of Fearon's work is paradigmatic in this respect; see the bracketing of issue indivisibilities as a form of explanation for war in Fearon 1995. However, he also challenged the neglect of distributional bargaining problems in current cooperation theory, showing these are analytical not ontological assumptions for the author; Fearon 1998a. Jervis has distinguished neoliberals from realists by using Powell's distinction between preferences over strategies and preferences over goals or outcomes: he argues that neoliberals (like all utilitarians) believe much conflict can be resolved by changing preferences over strategies, mainly through information—this outlook, however, has also precluded them from having insights into situations where a conflict over outcomes was at stake, for instance, the Cold War or the crisis of the 1930s; Jervis 2003, 292; Powell 1994. This is similar to the distinction that I am drawing here, suggesting that it can complement existing categorizations in the field.
Modern social choice theory examines the multiple ways in which aggregation leads to suboptimal outcomes, identifying failure as the result of the inherent logic of interaction rather than external interference, as with the Prisoner's Dilemma. The most important statement in this line was Arrow's Impossibility Theorem, which showed that aggregation of interests in voting could not be optimal if consistent; Arrow 1951. See also Barry and Hardin 1982. Despite the positivist commitments of this work, the underlying task remains to identify conditions which can secure equilibria. The Olsonian critique, by contrast, applies to the Liberal, balancing logic, not the utilitarian aggregative one; Olson 1965.
Utilitarianism and Liberalism stem from opposing philosophical foundations. The concept of utility itself was advanced by Bentham as a direct attack against two core Liberal beliefs: natural rights and the social contract. The former were “nonsense on stilts,” the social contract equally deprived of independent value.79
In later utilitarian thought, key ideas were gradually modified, especially by J. S. Mill, but they encapsulate differences that are still salient. Utilitarianism has been criticized as illiberal, especially in its egalitarian inclinations. However, the concept of a Pareto equilibrium is not inherently egalitarian, as the concept of equilibrium itself makes no necessary assumptions about the relative merits of the distributional arrangement for society as a whole, only its relative value for each actor in the game.80On the Mills, see Berlin 2002, 221–2, 226–7. Disputing the claims of illiberalism are Ryan 1974, 131 and Barry 1995, 135. The classic critique of Pareto equilibrium is Sen 1970.
The two theories also prescribe different mechanisms to generate collective outcomes. The key Liberal mechanisms are separation of powers and checks and balances between different arms of government—in short, institutional differentiation. By contrast, institutions for utilitarians are “congealed prejudices,” whose permanent character turns them into mobilizations of bias, rather than expressions of preferences.81
I am here paraphrasing Riker's famous definition of institutions as “congealed preferences”; Riker 1980. See also Keohane 2001, 5.
The only institutions Bentham placed at the core of his system were legal and penal ones. The capacity of law to mold human nature, commonly assumed a core Liberal premise, was, instead, a utilitarian inheritance; Halévy 1928, 487–8.
The sharp differences between the two approaches raises the question of how they become conflated, especially in the Anglo-American context. A full answer would exceed the boundaries of this article, but some major points can be easily discerned. First, classical Liberalism from its origins incorporated both “conservative” and “radical” elements, especially in the work of Locke, which was fundamental for the American political tradition.83
Then, in the nineteenth century, John Stuart Mill formulated a utilitarian interpretation of classical Liberalism—and Mill's role in modern conceptions of Liberalism was definitive. The principles of free trade were popularized by Benthamite utilitarianism and the Manchester School in the late nineteenth century. However, free trade morphed into a conservative theory, with an influential exponent in Herbert Spencer. Spencer advocated a potent mix: extreme conceptions of laissez faire tied to Darwinian evolutionism and strong anti-statism (which is closer to how classical Liberalism is sometimes conceived today). Spencerian evolutionism, finally, triggered the progressive, modern interpretation of Liberalism in response. Most notably, strong state interventionism in regulation and redistribution and an organic conception of the Liberal state were shown to be necessary to secure Liberal goals, especially in the work of Hobhouse.84 Liberal conceptions of the market thus degenerated into simplistic defenses of laissez faire by the early twentieth century, at the same time as progressive and reformist ideologies became increasingly tied to a statist and interventionist approach. Since the former were by now deemed conservative, state interventionism acquired the label of Liberalism instead. The economic crisis of the 1930s, which undermined the notion of the economy as a self-regulating mechanism and elicited the New Deal, consolidated this intellectual slippage.85Keynes 1926.
Shifting back to IR, the common perception of balance of power theories, with their laissez-faire implications, as conservative or Realist and as antithetical to Liberal principles is easily seen as part of a broader intellectual movement. In the next section I will trace the parallel transformation of the concept within IR.
This leads to an obvious objection: if Liberalism as here defined is no longer recognized by modern Liberals, why resurrect this definition within IR? Addressing this objection is crucial, as it provides the core justification for my argument. I argue that Liberal theory, in both its domestic and its international variants, should cede neither self-interest nor power nor the balancing mechanism to its conservative opponents.86
Some political theorists, of course, have long been making such claims; see Holmes 1995; Shapiro 1999.
The work of Adam Smith offers powerful evidence in support of this argument. Smith shows that the classical Liberal tradition does not assume spontaneous, automatic equilibria and that it has a robust understanding of the need for government. His views are thus closer to contemporary understandings of Liberalism than to conservative economic positions. His notion of the invisible hand has been the main source of misunderstanding. Yet by no means does it imply the spontaneous emergence of equilibria in the economy as a whole. Only the self interest of laborers and land owners coincided with the general interest of society. By contrast, Smith showed how the interest of merchants and manufacturers, who live by profit, was often “opposite” to that of the public. Moreover, he highlighted a crucial information asymmetry: mercantile classes always knew what their interest was, and would deliberately deceive the public to implement it through state policy—while the laborers and landlords were misguided or often ignorant. Policy thus had to be carefully selected; the “science of the statesman and the legislator” was crucial in creating the “wealth of nations.” For instance, regulation in favor of the workers was “always just and equitable.” Low wages were detrimental not only to the economy, but to society as a whole: Smith advocated for the needs of the poor on a utilitarian and a humanitarian basis at many points. Far from a “laissez-faire” thinker, he thought that taxation should be used to create incentives for optimally productive use of capital, even to discourage “spendthrift” tendencies of the landowning classes. And the sovereign was crucial in fostering such practices.87
On policy requiring “science,” 1976b, I.xi.p.1–10. On worker regulation, Smith 1976b, I.x.c.61; on low wages and the poor, I.viii.36, I.viii.42, I.ix.13; arguments on the progressive use of taxation are made throughout chapter two of book five, see Smith 1976b, V.ii.c.12, 18. This is not to deny that he made criticisms of inept government or arbitrary and unequal taxation—only that these were empirical policy critiques, and not definitive of his theoretical position. His trust in the efficiency of government elicited stern criticism by the conservative Stigler, as did the interventionist positions of the later neoclassicals; Stigler 1965.
Even the bêtes noires of economics, the neoclassical marginalists of the nineteenth century and later, were deeply concerned with social justice and welfare, again contrary to common perceptions. Walras developed general equilibrium theory, yet he advocated the reclamation of all lands by the state so that land rent could replace taxation as a source of government revenue. Edgeworth proposed (and Hotelling proved) that taxation could decrease the price of a good, articulating a utilitarian theory of progressive taxation. Pigou developed welfare economics; he first distinguished private and social marginal products, and identified their divergence as a frequent occurrence requiring government intervention (a position critiqued by Coase). He advocated redistribution to increase economic welfare. With important differences, so had Marshall, taxation being the instrument of choice. And after Robbins rejected interpersonal comparisons of utility, the modern theory of optimum welfare under pure competition was retained by Abba Lerner and Oscar Lange—as socialists, they could continue to accept “the postulate that men are equal in their ability to enjoy life.”88
Scitovsky 1951, 305.
Walras 1987b; 1987a; Edgeworth 1897; Coase 1960; Pigou 1952. For Marshall, see Blaug 1997, 320–22. I thank Richard Tuck for bringing the point about Edgeworth to my attention. For the Chicago School and quotation, see Stigler 1959, 524; Friedman 1982.
The main adversary to the Chicago school has been the new information economics developed by Joseph Stiglitz and others. It has shown that imperfect and costly, or asymmetric, information, as well as incomplete markets, necessarily lead to market failure and that income distribution matters for economic efficiency: egalitarian concerns are thus not exogenous to economic analysis. The role of government intervention and institutions, in this approach, is clearly aimed to ensure that equilibrium economics fulfill their promise, not to jettison the idea.90
Greenwald and Stiglitz 1986, Stiglitz 2000. The common belief, therefore, that classical and neoclassical economics, and liberalism more generally, imply the primacy of economic institutions over political ones, is misguided.
With the information revolution placed in the context of equilibrium theory in economics, we can see the role of information in IR institutionalism under new light. It is clear that the symbiotic relationship the latter has always had with balance of power theory (in the form of neorealism) is perfectly consistent with parallel developments in economic theory. The purpose of institutions in economic theory (as in IR) is to purvey information, reduce transaction costs, and thus to allow more efficient “contracting.” Theorists introduced contracting and strategic bargaining as a sharp critique of the unrealistic assumptions on automatic, costless market clearing of traditional equilibrium theory. They sought to model the dynamics of price-mediated exchange with greater (theoretical, not empirical) realism; and, though this will come as a surprise to some, game theory was introduced to perform this task.91
Von Neumann and Morgenstern 1944. This explains why game theory was not embraced by conservative, Chicago-style, economics.
Onuf 1998, 229.
However, the economic logic made IR scholars subject to the same pathology as in orthodox economics: a neglect of power.94
For a similar critique of classical equilibrium theory, see Scitovsky 1990. In IR, the classic statement is Krasner 1976. See also, Moe 2005.
In the previous sections, I have argued that the balance of power is a key Liberal notion. I now use this insight to clarify some concepts in IR theory. First, I show that theories conventionally classified as Realist, like Waltz's, draw their explanatory power from the core Liberal mechanism. Then, I explain this slippage by arguing that balance of power came to be seen as ‘Realist’ through the conflation with Realpolitik and reason of state. These three concepts, balance of power, Realpolitik, and reason of state, are usually taken as a unit, but the latter two are analytically distinct; I argue that their conflation is contingent, emerging in nineteenth century German idealist thought. Realism should also not be identified with the ‘state-as-unitary-actor’ hypothesis, and I show why Liberal critiques on this point are misguided. Having cleared the definitional ground, I then define Realism in a way that adequately differentiates it from Liberalism and brings it in sync with the use of the concept in American politics and political theory.
What Realism Is Not, at Least Necessarily
This being inherently a world of opposing interests and of conflict among them, moral principles can never be fully realized, but must at best be approximated through the ever temporary balancing of interests and the ever-precarious settlement of conflicts. This school then, sees in a system of checks and balances a universal principle for all pluralist societies. It appeals to historic precedent rather than to abstract principles, and aims at the realization of the lesser evil rather than of the absolute good.95
Morgenthau 1948, 3–4; emphasis added.
One would assume from Hans Morgenthau's remarks that the school referred to is the Liberal one. Yet he continues: “This theoretical concern with human nature as it actually is, and with the historic processes as they actually take place, has earned for the theory presented here the name of realism.”96
Ibid.
He also draws the explicit parallel between the American system of checks and balances and the international system; Morgenthau 1948, 178. Yet he fails to identify this as a specifically Liberal notion; instead, he effectively naturalizes the concept of a balance, presenting it as a feature recurring in different spheres of the natural world; Morgenthau 1948, 174.
Balance of Power is realist, but not Realist: Adam Smith Goes Security98 See footnote 5 for definitions of realism used in this article.
See footnote 5 for definitions of realism used in this article.
Waltz's Theory of International Politics is arguably the most important statement of the past half-century in IR theory. As such, it has been systematically attacked, primarily for its realism. Its focus on the state as the unit of analysis has also been a target, since important changes in the international system are thought to make the state obsolete. Such criticism is misplaced: the focus on the state is a theoretical assumption for Waltz, a necessary element neither of balance of power theory, nor of neorealism for that matter. Moreover, as unipolar tendencies emerge in the international system, rather than see a decline in the importance of neorealism, we can expect its relevance (and Liberal character) to become even more apparent.
Waltz's theory has been classified as Realist, as it is predicated on the balance of power. However, in light of my analysis, Waltz's theory falls squarely within the classical Liberal tradition. Further, the “neo” aspect of neorealist theory originates in microeconomic theory. The analogy of microeconomics is not simply a heuristic device, but captures a fundamental conception of how unit behaviors aggregate. More specifically it embodies the Liberal assumption of a self-calibrating system. Scholars have noted the analogy of course,99
Fearon 1998b.
In neorealism, the mechanism that generates outcomes originates in the Smithian logic. Critics have found this mechanism unsatisfying, given Waltz's stipulation that a balance does not require balancing behavior on the part of the actors.102
Levy 2001, 10.
This is why many of the criticisms that have been levied against Waltz, using evidence about behavior of actors (Schroeder 1994a; Rosecrance 2003), do not do justice to the theory. The Liberal insight is ingenious because it predicts that outcomes emerge without actors intending or acting to bring them about. Democrats mobilizing against Republicans do not do so to “create a balance,” but to protect their interests—thus preventing unilateralism by their opponents. Ironically, Schroeder's magisterial account of European history offers compelling evidence of the tendency to concentrations and of the failure of self-interested actions that in my account make him an insightful realist, presumably of the Liberal variant; Schroeder 1994b. For the record, my own empirical perspective on these debates is very close to his statements in Vasquez and Elman 2003, 124.
In any case, the market analogy is clear. No one has to intend the public good for it to materialize, only his or her private gain. This is, arguably, the genius of the Liberal solution to the pervasive problem of self-interested human action (and, needless to say, it fails about as often as it succeeds, but we are arguably all better off when it does succeed). It is also not a claim predicated on individual rationality. Waltz's system requires simply the evolutionary rationality that is expressed at the structural, not the individual level; Alchian resolved the problem of market rationality in a similar manner, by attributing rationality to the industry as a whole, rather than to the individual firm—as Kant had done in a different context.105
Reclassifying Waltz in this manner allows us to explain the paradox of his influence among Liberal scholars and the strong criticism he has received from classical realists.106Keohane 1986 and Fearon 1995 are prominent Liberal examples engaging the neorealist framework; Schweller 1996 and Zakaria 1998 made strong Realist critiques of the Waltzian paradigm. An alternative account presenting neorealism as a strategic move to make Realism “more palatable” to mainstream Liberals, see Shimko 1992.
Balance of Power is not Realpolitik nor Reason of State, Not Necessarily
So how was balance of power identified with Realism? This occurred when balance of power became associated with three separate concepts, each of which has also been thought central to Realism: Realpolitik, reason of state, and state-centrism. However, a closer look shows that these concepts are only contingently related. In this section, I analyze the first two separately. Realpolitik is thought to denote a host of practices, such as secret alliances, partitions, and interventions, which excite vehement opposition by Liberals. However, just as checks and balances in domestic politics were not meant to imply the Realpolitik of bribery and corruption (which is often in practice the case), so the balance of power does not in theory require anything beyond efficient alliance formation or self help. The connection of Realpolitik and balance of power is a practical, not a theoretical, definitional one. The same is true for the principles of raison d'état. In what follows, I offer one explanation of how these two separate strands came together to redefine balance of power as inherently statist and Realist. In the next section, I show why state-centrism is equally not integral to either Realism or balance of power.107
This is obviously not the only genealogy of balance of power as a conservative principle. It had already become a target of the English Radicals in the seventeenth century, and, later, that of critics such as Voltaire and the Manchester School. However, the genealogy I outline is the one that brings together the disparate strands of state-centrism, Realism, and the balancing principle, from which current Realism in IR stems. For the most informed historical analysis of these concepts, see Haslam 2002, 17–127.
Realpolitik refers to “practical politics; policy determined by practical, rather than moral or ideological, considerations.”108
“Realpolitik,” OED Online, 2d ed., s.v.
Guicciardini 1964 was, however, the one who introduced the concept of reason of state into the political vocabulary; Tuck 1993, 39. See also Vagts 1948, 95–97.
Realpolitik has long been thought necessary to produce a balance of power through practices such as covert diplomacy, partitions, and breach of agreements, all of which violated Liberal principles. However, in theory at least, the only necessary corollary for preserving a balance is the unobstructed capacity to form alliances.112
In fact, forceful partitions to artificially maintain a balance were recognized by proponents of balance of power as its undoing. For instance, Gentz was a Prussian participant at the Congress of Vienna on the Austrian side, and author of a sustained defense of the principle. In his second chapter, however, he described “the Shock given to the Balance of Power by the Introduction of the Partition System.” He claimed the decline of the old European system began with the partition of Poland; the “system of partition” was an “abuse” and “perversion” of the old form, in the service of “bad purposes.”113Gentz 1806, 73. Like Ranke, he was opposed to the plans of German unification under Prussia, supporting instead a careful balance between the German states.
The conflation with Realpolitik is one reason Liberals reject balance of power; the other is the latter's presumed commitment to “reason of state” principles. However, our contemporary notion of reason of state stems from the German statist tradition of the nineteenth century, which had only a historically contingent relation with balance of power. The connection between reason of state and balance of power required two steps to emerge. The emergence of a new Idealist notion of reason of state was the first step. Rather than reject morality, German notions of Reason of State turned the realization of the state into the highest moral value for the community. The state alone allowed the nation to fully actualize its potential and nature. Reason of State became the “vital principle, the entelechy of the state;” it was the “fundamental principle of national conduct, the State's First Law of Motion. It tells the statesman what to do to preserve the health and strength of the State.”114
Meinecke 1957, 1, 5.
After Reason of State became an Idealist concept, it fused with balance of power through historical contingency: the balance became the mechanism safeguarding the State in the context of nineteenth-century German political history. Ranke's work exemplifies this process.115
Ranke 1973; especially the essays, “The Great Powers” (1833) and “A Dialogue on Politics” (1836).
However, this conflation was a contingent rather than a necessary one. It is true that the balance of power was also supposed to uphold the monarchical, conservative order that culminated in the Concert of Europe: balance seemed opposed to motion, change, and social progress.117
Woodward 1929.
Dodd 1739.
There is a second reason we want to question the conservative character of the balancing principle. We tend to see balance of power and Liberalism as opposed because a balance is understood to imply a commitment to the state, and the state is also seen as a constraint on Liberalism and individual rights. I criticize this view in the following section.
Balance of Power and Realism Do Not Imply State-Centrism, Not Necessarily
So far, I have suggested that balance of power is best distinguished from Realpolitik as much as from Reason of State. State-centrism is another concept commonly associated with Realism and the balance of power; “the state as unitary actor” is seen as the foundational principle of Realism—in fact, as the only assumption now shared by the multifarious versions of the theory.120
Yet, the concept is hardly salient in such “paradigmatic” realists as Carr and Morgenthau, but the discrepancy is rarely taken as significant.121 This is a serious misapprehension, resulting in concepts that are analytically flawed and the source of pervasive confusion. Realists, more than anyone, need to reject the statist assumption, even if claims of the decline of the state as an international actor are premature—this is an unnecessary challenge to their approach. Neorealists called for this early on: “The logic of anarchy obtains whether the system is composed of tribes, nations, oligopolistic firms, or street gangs.”122The association of Realism with the black-box notion of the state is pervasive, but intellectual history shows it is misguided. The idea of the state as a unitary actor originates in Idealism, a tradition deeply antithetical to Realism, as Palan and Blair have persuasively shown.123
Palan and Blair 1993.
For an interesting account of this history, see Schmidt 1998, 439–448.
In any case, the “Realist” character of Hobbes has been widely challenged, foremost by the English School; Bull 1995. See also, Williams 1996. And, as noted by Keohane, Hobbes believed actors equal in capabilities are more prone to conflict; Keohane 1990, 170.
The identification of state-centrism and Realism can be rejected for two reasons. First, such slippage departs from the meaning of the term “realism” in ordinary language use. Realism denotes a “tendency to regard things as they really are; any view … contrasted with idealism,” or, “the view that actual political power is the subject-matter of politics, as opp. to doctrine, law, rights, or justice.126
“Realism,” OED Online, 2d ed., s. v.
Second, the equation of Realism with state-centrism is often motivated by a Liberal hostility towards the state; both Realism and balance of power are assumed to privilege the state at the expense of individual rights. However, a strong state is necessary for Liberal politics at the domestic level, as some Liberals often forget. It underlies an effective welfare state that can protect all citizens from market failures.127
Instead of the state, Liberals should target the concentration of power in elites that claim to defend “the national interest” when the latter is not the product of Liberal pluralist politics.128This being the concern of “realism” in American politics; Schattschneider 1960.
Realism
It may seem quixotic to wish to define Realism (or Liberalism for that matter) given the complexities involved. Realism is so pervasively identified with systemic explanations in IR that any alternative may be hard to accept. However, three factors support the definition adopted in this article. First, it accords with the understanding of the concept in the study of domestic politics and political theory; second, it clearly separates Realism from alternatives, and therefore forestalls claims that the paradigm is obsolete, and third, it focuses on a central problem that is often sidelined: the tendencies towards concentrations and inequalities.129
A “law of concentration” was central in Marxist and Leninist theory as well. The key difference again with Realism is on the level of outcomes: Marxist concentrations are simply a stage in the progression towards communism. Once the social relations of production have changed, concentrations and power itself disappear. In Realism, concentrations are instead a recurrent feature of society, in Liberalism, a recurrent threat.
A definition of Realism as the theory that predicts concentrations of power bears strong affinities to what has often been recognized as a core feature of Realist theories: the law of uneven growth.130
Schweller and Wohlforth 2000, 76–78.
Mackinder 1919, 4.
Mearsheimer's “offensive Realism” is usually considered the purest theory of Realism, consistently premised on systemic and geostrategic pressures, on the effects of power. It predicts that states will act aggressively and will seek opportunities to expand more frequently than other Realist theories assume. Though defensive Realists postulate efficient balancing, the historical record shows this is not the case, and this provides opportunities to aggressors.133
Mearsheimer 2001.
Mearsheimer does not consider the law of uneven growth nor does he assert any tendency towards concentration. In fact, he is critical of power transition theories on which the law is based, and endorses the balance-of-power assumption of the stability of a bipolar order, which assumes that equality may be sustained over time. However, his logic is crucially underlied by an assumption of a tendency towards concentration. He differs from defensive Realists in claiming that conquest pays. There are thus returns to concentrating power and the international system both permits and rewards such behavior. Balancing is weak. This premise is crucial for his argument, and it underlies the substantive predictions of the theory in a much more central way than, for instance, the bipolarity assumptions; the latter are theoretically less pure, due to the effects of nuclear weapons that also predict stability.
The main reason why concentrations do not appear in this theory is significant, and characteristic of the structure of the debates on the issue: Mearsheimer, like most Realists, focuses on behavioral patterns, not international outcomes as far as the distribution of power is concerned. The outcomes of interest are peace and war, which are events, not structural patterns, and these are deemed to be caused by aggressive behavior and constraints thereon. Mearsheimer's goal is to show that great powers (and presumably states with capabilities in general) behave in a more destabilizing manner than defensive Realists predict, and that the natural tendency is towards expansion, rather than the preservation of the status quo (as astutely observed by Schweller).134
Schweller 1996.
Ultimately, however, the difference between defensive and offensive Realists is not whether states behave over-aggressively or not (both admit they do), or whether such aggression is the result of domestic failures rather than built into the international system itself (a question about the causes of foreign policy). The real difference is the position of the two theories on a systemic, aggregate-level question: is balancing efficient (defensive Realists say “mostly yes”) or does it fail more often than not (as the offensive Realist asserts).135
Consistently with Realism, the core of Mearsheimer's analysis aims to show that to the degree that global hegemony has not occurred, the reason lies in geostrategic factors, mainly the “stopping power of water,” rather than the ability of states to balance. Historically, however, conquest has never been thwarted by the span of water, but by the strength of the forces waiting on the shore—a result of the internal organization of the state.
Focusing on behavioral patterns will only confirm those who want to elide differences between alternative theories so as to claim victory for their side; in a sense they are right, since, as argued, Liberalism is based as much on conflictual preferences as its counterpart.136
This includes Realists who think IR Neoliberalism is an addendum to Realism and Liberals who think that Realists using domestic variables have become Liberals.
Value Added
The purpose of this article is not to pour old wine in old bottles. Realism and Liberalism will remain central categorizing devices in the field, as Jervis has persuasively argued.137
Different versions have been central to debates for the last three centuries or so, and it is unlikely that they will disappear, despite the emergence of challenging new questions. Retaining analytical distinctness is thus crucial. There are three main reasons why the revision proposed might be helpful. First, it is good for Liberals. Second, it is good for Realists. And third, it resonates with broader methodological concerns in political science.More specifically, reclaiming balance of power theory allows Liberalism to recapture its “realist” core, jettison the labels of naivety and irrelevance, and recover one of the core organizing principles of the social sciences, that of equilibrium, in a suitably qualified way. A definition of Liberalism cannot omit the concept of power without departing from the theory's historical and theoretical core. The most sophisticated and articulate definition of Liberalism in IR, advanced by Moravcsik, focuses on preferences as distinct from capabilities and power.138
Moravcsik 1997b.
Holmes 1995, 245; Morgan 2005, 101–5. Legro and Moravcsik make the same point, but with different conclusions; Legro and Moravcsik 1999, 21.
At the same time, Realism can regain theoretical coherence by being confined to predictions about concentrations rather than balances of power, and can forestall legitimate objections of having become a “degenerative research paradigm.”140
The conflation of Realism with balance of power has narrowed the field of IR to a limited distinction between two effectively cognate theories, Liberalism and balance of power theory, whilst marginalizing the true Realist prediction, the tendency to concentrations.141See the special defense of the principle made by Wohlforth 1999.
Schweller and Wohlforth 2000.
Further, the authors point to the assumptions of the two theories as their unifying elements: the conflict group as key actor, power as the fundamental feature of politics, and the essentially conflictual nature of politics in IR. But these are staples of Liberal theory too, and, even more so, of many Marxist approaches.143
This explains why a self-professed “amateur Marxist” of the disenchanted Liberal variety, such as E.H. Carr, can be so readily identified with Realism. Marxism has offered one of the more “realist” critiques of liberal idealism.
Chain-gangs and buck-passing are occasions of failure of balance of power, not of its confirmation. It is caused by uncertainty, which leads to miscalculation or overreaction; Waltz 1979, 168.
On methodological grounds, the argument suggests a focus on dependent rather than independent variables. This is not only consistent with important calls in the field, it could help shift attention away from the sterile debate between “domestic” vs. “systemic” factors.145
Laitin 2002.
Snyder 1991. Legro and Moravcsik seem to identify domestic coercion, misrepresentation, elite domination etc (Legro and Moravcsik 1999, 33, 35) as confirming Liberalism, whereas most would see these as instances where Liberal politics have failed.
Frieden and Rogowski 1996. The argument that Realism is in fact better able to accommodate domestic level variables is persuasively made by Sterling-Folker 1997.
The “systemic” approach has been prevalent due to two assumptions: first, that it is “deterministic,” i.e. that it does not “naively” assume freedom of choice, and second, that it privileges “material capabilities.” But the notion that “structure” imposes definite behavioral prescriptions cannot be sustained, except for highly specific moments in time, so Realists are betting on a losing horse if they retain this premise—Neoclassical Realists have established this point well.149
Moreover, a domestic-level approach can involve limited choice too; “preference-based” approaches may be as constrained as their “systemic” counterparts.150Satz and Ferejohn 1994.
Hume 1994. Walt 1987, Levy 2001, and Keohane 2001, 8, in different ways, make this point effectively.
Legro and Moravcsik 1999, 18. The authors identify the concept with “material capabilities,” but that does not fully capture its meaning.
Conclusion
The analysis has covered a lot of ground to support the claim that balance of power is a Liberal principle and that it can be seen as compatible with the more progressive, modern understanding of Liberalism—indeed, that it forms the first line of defense for progressive politics in the face of various dynamics that tend to undermine liberty, relative equality, and justice. Conversely, I have argued that Realism is best identified with a tendency towards concentrations. The suggested focus on outcomes is not meant to imply that this is the only legitimate distinction. Only that if the two labels are to be used, this approach avoids unnecessary confusions that leave both paradigms worse off.
My analysis opens up a large number of questions and problems that cannot be dealt with in the context of a single article. Important IR concepts such as anarchy, relative and absolute gains, cooperation, regimes, and many others require separate treatment, as would a technically more adequate definition of a balance of power, of power itself, and of concentration. Foremost in need of further elucidation is the concept of equilibrium itself, which has been exhaustively critiqued in economics as much as it has in IR, and for very similar reasons.155
Complexity theory, agent-based modeling, and computer simulation have also strongly challenged the notion of equilibrium, opting for spontaneous order instead. Important applications have already been made in IR.156Cederman 1997.
The article has simply aimed to redress an imbalance. Baldwin, quoting Claude, lamented that the balance of power is “a test of intellectual virility, of he-manliness in the field of international relations”—a test that Liberalism always seemed to fail. I wish to argue that this failure was the result of a lapse in historical memory, that balance of power is a foundation of the Liberal tradition. Moreover, I sought to show that classical Liberal balances and the more progressive concerns with justice, equality, and cooperation interact with—and are often undermined by—Realist concentrations of power, as one important counterforce among others.157
Baldwin 1993, 10.