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UNIQUENESS OF BUBBLE-FREE SOLUTION IN LINEAR RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS MODELS

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 January 2003

Gabriel Desgranges
Affiliation:
THEMA, Université de Cergy-Pontoise
Stéphane Gauthier
Affiliation:
CREST and ERMES, Université Paris 2
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Abstract

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One usually identifies bubble solutions to linear rational expectations models by extra components (irrelevant lags) arising in addition to market fundamentals. Although there are still many solutions relying on a minimal set of state variables, i.e., relating in equilibrium the current state of the economic system to as many lags as initial conditions, there is a conventional wisdom that the bubble-free (fundamentals) solution should be unique. This paper examines the existence of endogenous stochastic sunspot fluctuations close to solutions relying on a minimal set of state variables, which provides a natural test for identifying bubble and bubble-free solutions. It turns out that only one solution is locally immune to sunspots, independently of the stability properties of the perfect-foresight dynamics. In the standard saddle-point configuration for these dynamics, this solution corresponds to the so-called saddle stable path.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© 2003 Cambridge University Press