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Museveni and the 2011 Ugandan election: did the money matter?*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 November 2012

Jeffrey Conroy-Krutz  and
Carolyn Logan
Jeffrey Conroy-Krutz*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Michigan State University, South Kedzie Hall, 368 Farm Lane, S303, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA
Carolyn Logan*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science and Deputy Director, Afrobarometer, Michigan State University, South Kedzie Hall, 368 Farm Lane, S303, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA
*
Email: conroyk6@msu.edu
Email: clogan@msu.edu
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Abstract

In February 2011, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni resoundingly won re-election. In the aftermath of the vote, which many had predicted would be competitive, analysts and opposition supporters ascribed Museveni's victory to massive pre-election spending on public goods, creation of new administrative districts, and vote buying. While the opposition could not compete with Museveni and his National Resistance Movement in access to resources, our analyses of survey data, from two pre-election surveys conducted by Afrobarometer in November/December 2010 and January 2011, and a pre- and post-election panel study, find little evidence that Museveni benefited significantly from public goods outlays, district creation, and vote buying. Additionally, we find little evidence that fear and intimidation were responsible for the results. Instead, the data suggest that Museveni's re-election was driven by an uninspiring opposition slate, widespread satisfaction with macro-economic growth, and an improved security situation, particularly in the Northern Region.

Type
Research Article
Information
The Journal of Modern African Studies , Volume 50 , Issue 4 , December 2012 , pp. 625 - 655
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2012

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Footnotes

*

We would like to thank Helen Lee for research assistance on this project. Mike Bratton, Eric Kramon, Simon Osborn and two anonymous reviewers provided helpful comments on earlier versions. Dr Conroy-Krutz acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation (SES-1024031). All opinions and errors are our own.

References

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Newspapers (published in Kampala unless otherwise stated)

Africa Confidential, London; Daily Monitor; The Independent; New Vision; The Observer; Saturday Monitor; Saturday Vision; Sunday Monitor.