Hostname: page-component-745bb68f8f-mzp66 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-02-05T18:06:16.042Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Government Investment Stimulus and Household Balance Sheet Externalities

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 January 2025

Abhishek Bhardwaj
Affiliation:
Tulane University Freeman School of Business abhardwaj@tulane.edu
Saptarshi Mukherjee*
Affiliation:
Northeastern University D’Amore-McKim School of Business
*
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

We document spillover effects of government policies promoting capital investment on household financial choices and wealth accumulation. Using individual-level data on employment outcomes and household balance sheets, we find that increase in accelerated depreciation limits increases the layoff probability of routine workers and reduces their stock share of liquid wealth relative to non-routine workers. Background risk due to the policy is mitigated when workers have access to generous unemployment insurance benefits. Finally, we show that such portfolio rebalancing adversely impacts investment returns and the wealth accumulation of routine workers.

Type
Research Article
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2025. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the Michael G. Foster School of Business, University of Washington

Footnotes

We thank Viral V. Acharya, Rajesh Aggarwal, Holger M. Mueller, Arpit Gupta, Simone Lenzu, Joseba Martinez, Tiantian Gu, Weiling Liu, Kunchen Zhang, and seminar participants at the 2022 EFA Annual Meeting, 2021 SFA Meeting, and Northeastern University for helpful comments. We would also like to thank Ran Duchin (the editor) and two anonymous referees for numerous helpful comments which significantly improved the paper. All errors are our own.

References

Acemoglu, D.Why Do New Technologies Complement Skills? Directed Technical Change and Wage Inequality.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113 (1998), 10551089.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Acemoglu, D.Technical Change, Inequality, and the Labor Market.” Journal of Economic Literature, 40 (2002), 772.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Acemoglu, D., and Autor, D., “Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings.” In Handbook of Labor Economics, Vol. 4. Elsevier (2011), 10431171.Google Scholar
Acemoglu, D.; Manera, A.; and Restrepo, P.. “Does the US Tax Code Favor Automation?” NBER Working Paper No. 27052 (2020).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Addoum, J. M.; Korniotis, G.; and Kumar, A.. “Stature, Obesity, and Portfolio Choice.” Management Science, 63 (2017), 33933413.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Agarwal, V.; Aslan, H.; Huang, L.; and Ren, H.. “Political Uncertainty and Household Stock Market Participation.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 57 (2022), 28992928.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Agrawal, A. K., and Matsa, D. A.. “Labor Unemployment Risk and Corporate Financing Decisions.” Journal of Financial Economics, 108 (2013), 449470.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aladangady, A.Housing Wealth and Consumption: Evidence from Geographically-Linked Microdata.” American Economic Review, 107 (2017), 34153446.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ameriks, J., and Zeldes, S. P.. “How Do Household Portfolio Shares Vary with Age?” SSRN (2011).Google Scholar
Angerer, X., and Lam, P.-S.. “Income Risk and Portfolio Choice: An Empirical Study.” Journal of Finance, 64 (2009), 10371055.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Autor, D. H.The Paradox of Abundance: Automation Anxiety Returns.” In Performance and Progress: Essays on Capitalism, Business, and Society, Rangan, S., ed. Oxford: Oxford Academic (2015), 237260.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Autor, D. H., and Dorn, D.. “The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the US Labor Market.” American Economic Review, 103 (2013), 15531597.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Autor, D. H.; Katz, L. F.; and Kearney, M. S.. “The Polarization of the US Labor Market.” American Economic Review, 96 (2006), 189194.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Autor, D. H.; Katz, L. F.; and Kearney, M. S.. “Trends in US Wage Inequality: Revising the Revisionists.” Review of Economics and Statistics, 90 (2008), 300323.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Autor, D. H.; Levy, F.; and Murnane, R. J.. “The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118 (2003), 12791333.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Benzoni, L.; Collin-Dufresne, P.; and Goldstein, R. S.. “Portfolio Choice over the Life-Cycle When the Stock and Labor Markets are Cointegrated.” Journal of Finance, 62 (2007), 21232167.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Betermier, S.; Jansson, T.; Parlour, C.; and Walden, J.. “Hedging Labor Income Risk.” Journal of Financial Economics, 105 (2012), 622639.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bharath, S. T., and Cho, D.. “Do Natural Disaster Experiences Limit Stock Market Participation?Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 58 (2023), 2970.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bilias, Y.; Georgarakos, D.; and Haliassos, M.. “Portfolio Inertia and Stock Market fluctuations.” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 42 (2010), 715742.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bonaparte, Y.; Korniotis, G. M.; and Kumar, A.. “Income Hedging and Portfolio Decisions.” Journal of Financial Economics, 113 (2014), 300324.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Calvet, L. E.; Campbell, J. Y.; and Sodini, P.. “Fight or Flight? Portfolio Rebalancing by Individual Investors.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 124 (2009), 301348.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Calvet, L. E., and Sodini, P.. “Twin Picks: Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in Household Portfolios.” Journal of Finance, 69 (2014), 867906.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carroll, C. D.How Does Future Income Affect Current Consumption?Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109 (1994), 111147.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Catherine, S. “Countercyclical Labor Income Risk and Portfolio Choices over the Life-Cycle.” HEC Paris Research Paper No. FIN-2016-1147 (2019).Google Scholar
Chetty, R.; Sándor, L.; and Szeidl, A.. “The Effect of Housing on Portfolio Choice.” Journal of Finance, 72 (2017), 11711212.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Christelis, D.; Jappelli, T.; and Padula, M.. “Cognitive Abilities and Portfolio Choice.” European Economic Review, 54 (2010), 1838.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cocco, J. F.; Gomes, F. J.; and Maenhout, P. J.. “Consumption and Portfolio Choice over the Life Cycle.” Review of Financial Studies, 18 (2005), 491533.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Curtis, E. M.; Garrett, D. G.; Ohrn, E.; Roberts, K. A.; and Serrato, J. C. S.. Capital Investment and Labor Demand: Evidence from 21st Century Tax Policy. NBER (2021).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dimmock, S. G.Background Risk and University Endowment Funds.” Review of Economics and Statistics, 94 (2012), 789799.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dow, J., and da Costa Werlang, S. R.. “Uncertainty Aversion, Risk Aversion, and the Optimal Choice of Portfolio.” Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 60 (1992), 197204.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fagereng, A.; Gottlieb, C.; and Guiso, L.. “Asset Market Participation and Portfolio Choice over the Life-Cycle.” Journal of Finance, 72 (2017), 705750.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fagereng, A.; Guiso, L.; Malacrino, D.; and Pistaferri, L.. “Heterogeneity and Persistence in Returns to Wealth.” Econometrica, 88 (2020), 115170.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fagereng, A.; Guiso, L.; and Pistaferri, L.. “Portfolio Choices, Firm Shocks, and Uninsurable Wage Risk.” Review of Economic Studies, 85 (2018), 437474.Google Scholar
Gaggl, P., and Wright, G. C.. “A Short-Run View of What Computers Do: Evidence from a UK Tax Incentive.” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 9 (2017), 262294.Google Scholar
Garrett, D. G.; Ohrn, E.; and Suárez Serrato, J. C.. “Tax Policy and Local Labor Market Behavior.” American Economic Review: Insights, 2 (2020), 83100.Google Scholar
Giannetti, M., and Wang, T. Y.. “Corporate Scandals and Household Stock Market Participation.” Journal of Finance, 71 (2016), 25912636.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goldin, C. D., and Katz, L. F.. The Race Between Education and Technology. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press (2009).Google Scholar
Gomes, F.; Jansson, T.; and Karabulut, Y.. “Do Robots Increase Wealth Dispersion?” Available at SSRN 3229980 (2018).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goos, M.; Manning, A.; and Salomons, A.. “Explaining Job Polarization: Routine-Biased Technological Change and Offshoring.” American Economic Review, 104 (2014), 25092526.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grinblatt, M.; Keloharju, M.; and Linnainmaa, J.. “IQ and Stock Market Participation.” Journal of Finance, 66 (2011), 21212164.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gruber, J., and Madrian, B. C.. “Health Insurance, Labor Supply, and Job Mobility: A Critical Review of the Literature.” NBER Working Paper No. 8817 (2002).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guenther, G. L. Section 179 and Bonus Depreciation Expensing Allowances: Current Law and Issues for the 114th Congress. Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service (2015).Google Scholar
Guiso, L.; Jappelli, T.; and Terlizzese, D.. “Income Risk, Borrowing Constraints, and Portfolio Choice.” American Economic Review, 86 (1996), 158172.Google Scholar
Guvenen, F., and Smith, A. A.. “Inferring Labor Income Risk and Partial Insurance from Economic Choices.” Econometrica, 82 (2014), 20852129.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heaton, J., and Lucas, D.. “Market Frictions, Savings Behavior, and Portfolio Choice.” Macroeconomic Dynamics, 1 (1997), 76101.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heaton, J., and Lucas, D.. “Portfolio Choice and Asset Prices: The Importance of Entrepreneurial Risk.” Journal of Finance, 55 (2000), 11631198.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hochguertel, S.Precautionary Motives and Portfolio Decisions.” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18 (2003), 6177.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hsu, J. W.; Matsa, D. A.; and Melzer, B. T.. “Unemployment Insurance as a Housing Market Stabilizer.” American Economic Review, 108 (2018), 4981.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hurst, E., and Stafford, F.. “Home Is Where the Equity Is: Mortgage Refinancing and Household Consumption.” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 36 (2004), 9851014.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ilhan, E. “Sea Level Rise and Portfolio Choice.” Available at SSRN 3743046 (2020).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jaimovich, N., and Siu, H. E.. “Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries.” Review of Economics and Statistics, 102 (2020), 129147.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kambourov, G., and Manovskii, I.. “Rising Occupational and Industry Mobility in the United States: 1968–97.” International Economic Review, 49 (2008), 4179.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kambourov, G., and Manovskii, I.. “Occupational Mobility and Wage Inequality.” Review of Economic Studies, 76 (2009a), 731759.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kambourov, G., and Manovskii, I.. “Occupational Specificity of Human Capital.” International Economic Review, 50 (2009b), 63115.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Katz, L. F., and Murphy, K. M.. “Changes in Relative Wages, 1963–1987: Supply and Demand Factors.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107 (1992), 3578.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kaustia, M., and Torstila, S.. “Stock Market Aversion? Political Preferences and Stock Market Participation.” Journal of Financial Economics, 100 (2011), 98112.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kimball, M. S.Standard Risk Aversion.” Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 61 (1993), 589611.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kitchen, J., and Knittel, M.. “Business Use of Section 179 Expensing and Bonus Depreciation, 2002–2014.” Office of Tax Analysis Working Paper No. 110 (2016), 46.Google Scholar
Knüpfer, S.; Rantapuska, E.; and Sarvimäki, M.. “Formative Experiences and Portfolio Choice: Evidence from the Finnish Great Depression.” Journal of Finance, 72 (2017), 133166.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Koo, H.-K. “Consumption and Portfolio Selection with Labor Income: A Continuous Time Approach.” Mathematical Finance, 8 (1998), 49–65.Google Scholar
Krusell, P.; Ohanian, L. E.; Ríos-Rull, J.-V.; and Violante, G. L.. “Capital-Skill Complementarity and Inequality: A Macroeconomic Analysis.” Econometrica, 68 (2000), 10291053.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Low, H.; Meghir, C.; and Pistaferri, L.. “Wage Risk and Employment Risk over the Life Cycle.” American Economic Review, 100 (2010), 14321467.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lynch, A. W., and Tan, S.. “Labor Income Dynamics at Business-Cycle Frequencies: Implications for Portfolio Choice.” Journal of Financial Economics, 101 (2011), 333359.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maffini, G.; Xing, J.; and Devereux, M. P.. “The Impact of Investment Incentives: Evidence from UK Corporation Tax Returns.” American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 11 (2019), 361389.Google Scholar
Manski, C. F.Measuring Expectations.” Econometrica, 72 (2004), 13291376.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Massa, M., and Simonov, A.. “Hedging, Familiarity and Portfolio Choice.” Review of Financial Studies, 19 (2006), 633685.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Merton, R.Optimum Consumption and Portfolio-Rules in a Continuous-Time Framework.” Journal of Economic Theory, 3 (1971), 373413.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moll, B.; Rachel, L.; and Restrepo, P.. “Uneven Growth: Automation’s Impact on Income and Wealth Inequality.” Econometrica, 90 (2022), 26452683.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ohrn, E. “Investment and Employment Responses to State Adoption of Federal Accelerated Depreciation Policies.” Grinnell College (2016).Google Scholar
Ohrn, E.The Effect of Tax Incentives on U.S. Manufacturing: Evidence from State Accelerated Depreciation Policies.” Journal of Public Economics, 180 (2019), 104084.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Piketty, T., and Saez, E.. “Income Inequality in the United States, 1913–1998.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118 (2003), 141.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stevens, A. H.Persistent Effects of Job Displacement: The Importance of Multiple Job Losses.” Journal of Labor Economics, 15 (1997), 165188.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tuzel, S., and Zhang, M. B.. “Economic Stimulus at the Expense of Routine-Task Jobs.” Journal of Finance, 76 (2021), 33473399.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Van Rooij, M.; Lusardi, A.; and Alessie, R.. “Financial Literacy and Stock Market Participation.” Journal of Financial Economics, 101 (2011), 449472.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Xiong, H. “The US Occupational Mobility from 1988 to 2003: Evidence from SIPP.” Working Paper, University of Toronto (2008).Google Scholar
Zwick, E., and Mahon, J.. “Tax Policy and Heterogeneous Investment Behavior.” American Economic Review, 107 (2017), 217248.CrossRefGoogle Scholar