Published online by Cambridge University Press: 15 March 2017
The jaggedness of an order ideal $I$ in a poset
$P$ is the number of maximal elements in
$I$ plus the number of minimal elements of
$P$ not in
$I$. A probability distribution on the set of order ideals of
$P$ is toggle-symmetric if for every
$p\in P$, the probability that
$p$ is maximal in
$I$ equals the probability that
$p$ is minimal not in
$I$. In this paper, we prove a formula for the expected jaggedness of an order ideal of
$P$ under any toggle-symmetric probability distribution when
$P$ is the poset of boxes in a skew Young diagram. Our result extends the main combinatorial theorem of Chan–López–Pflueger–Teixidor [Trans. Amer. Math. Soc., forthcoming. 2015, arXiv:1506.00516], who used an expected jaggedness computation as a key ingredient to prove an algebro-geometric formula; and it has applications to homomesies, in the sense of Propp–Roby, of the antichain cardinality statistic for order ideals in partially ordered sets.