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Individual discount rates: a meta-analysis of experimental evidence

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 March 2025

Jindrich Matousek ,
Tomas Havranek  and
Zuzana Irsova Open the ORCID record for Zuzana Irsova [Opens in a new window]
Jindrich Matousek
Affiliation:
Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
Tomas Havranek
Affiliation:
Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
Zuzana Irsova*
Affiliation:
Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
*
zuzana.irsova@ies-prague.org
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Abstract

A key parameter estimated by lab and field experiments in economics is the individual discount rate—and the results vary widely. We examine the extent to which this variance can be attributed to observable differences in methods, subject pools, and potential publication bias. To address the model uncertainty inherent to such an exercise we employ Bayesian and frequentist model averaging. We obtain evidence consistent with publication bias against unintuitive results. The corrected mean annual discount rate is 0.33. Our findings also suggest that discount rates are independent across domains: people tend to be less patient when health is at stake compared to money. Negative framing is associated with more patience. Finally, the results of lab and field experiments differ systematically, and it also matters whether the experiment relies on students or uses broader samples of the population.

Keywords

Discount rateExperimentPublication biasMeta-analysisBayesian model averagingFrequentist model averaging

JEL classification

D01: Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles C90: General C83: Survey Methods • Sampling Methods
Type
Original Paper
Information
Experimental Economics , Volume 25 , Issue 1 , February 2022 , pp. 318 - 358
Copyright
Copyright © 2021 Economic Science Association

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Footnotes

Supplementary information The online version contains supplementary material available at https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-021-09716-9.

We are grateful to the editors, Marie Claire Villleval and Roberto A. Weber, and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments. An online appendix with data and code is available at meta-analysis.cz/discrate. Matousek acknowledges support from the Czech Science Foundation (Grant #21-09231S) and Charles University (project Primus/17/HUM/16). Havranek and Irsova acknowledge support from the Czech Science Foundation (Grant #19-26812X).

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