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Axiomatic Characterization of the Quadratic Scoring Rule

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 March 2025

Reinhard Selten
Reinhard Selten*
Affiliation:
University of Bonn, Laboratorium für experimentelle Wirtschaftsforschung, Adenauerallee 24-42, D-53113 Bonn
*
email: selten@lab.econl.uni-bonn.de
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Abstract

In the evaluation of experiments often the problem arises of how to compare the predictive success of competing probabilistic theories. The quadratic scoring rule can be used for this purpose. Originally, this rule was proposed as an incentive compatible elicitation method for probabilistic expert judgments. It is shown that up to a positive linear transformation, the quadratic scoring rule is characterized by four desirable properties.

Keywords

scoring rulesdescriptive statistics

JEL classification

C4: Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
Type
Research Article
Information
Experimental Economics , Volume 1 , Issue 1 , June 1998 , pp. 43 - 62
Copyright
Copyright © 1998 Economic Science Association

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