Any retelling of Zambia’s history is a story of the prominence of copper. From its “discovery” by outsiders in the late-nineteenth century (the locals had known about it for centuries) up until present day, copper has shaped and continues to shape history in Zambia. The development of the country’s most urbanized corridor, from the northerly Copperbelt Province all the way to Livingstone in the south, is a story of copper. The corridor grew alongside a rail line that the British South Africa Company had laid to facilitate the transportation of ore to South Africa via Zimbabwe (then known as Southern Rhodesia). Copper mining has also influenced language dynamics. Bemba’s ascendancy as a widely spoken language in the twentieth century is largely a product of migratory patterns related to the exploitation of copper.
As can be expected from a commodity so important, debates about copper and what to do about it tend to be emotive in Zambia. Hardly any presidential election since the mines were privatized in the late 1990s has taken place without the opposition accusing the ruling party of giving away too much to the private mine owners. This is itself a reflection of the fact that the typical Zambian, particularly on the populous Copperbelt, is of the view that the country “lost out” from selling the mines.
It’s into this milieu of emotions that Zambia: Building Prosperity from Resource Wealth enters and hopes to be a level-headed contribution. Edited by Christopher Adam, Paul Collier, and Michael Gondwe, the book boasts an impressive collection of contributors. Professors Adam and Collier are development economists at the University of Oxford, while Dr. Michael Gondwe served as the governor of the Bank of Zambia from 2011 to 2015. The list of contributors spans the entire spectrum of the social sciences and is unique, especially for a book on Zambia, in that half of the thirty-four contributors are Zambian, a feat applauded by the Minister of Finance in his foreword to the book (viii).
From the title, one expects that the book is dedicated entirely to a discussion of how to marshal resources from copper, the dominant natural resource, for purposes of development. This is not, however, the case, as only four of the book’s seventeen chapters are explicitly or directly related to a discussion of copper. The remaining thirteen chapters cover other broader socio-economic topics beyond the narrow focus on copper. This can be disappointing, especially for the Zambian generalist whose interest is solely in gaining a deeper understanding of Zambia’s “copper dynamics.” Even so, the four chapters on copper go a long way in deepening our understanding of this historically important industry.
The lead chapter in the book, which is also the first of the four copper-specific chapters, is titled “Growth Strategies for Zambia: Harnessing Natural Resource Wealth for Sustainable Development,” by Michael Gondwe and Emmanuel Mulenga Pamu, both of whom were with the Bank of Zambia at the time the chapter was written. The chapter presents some remarkable, if at times depressing, facts on the privatization of the mines. For instance, we learn that copper’s contribution to government revenues declined in the period after privatization despite the fact that copper prices and production were significantly higher in this period than in the final years of state ownership. Even more disturbing is the fact that the copper industry, which is now in private hands, continues to receive all sorts of implicit subsidies, not least of which is the subsidy on electricity consumption. (Chapter 11 on the energy sector, by Alan Whitworth, delves deeper into this story.) This is no small matter considering that 70 percent of the country’s electricity is consumed by the mines. Ironically, though, and particularly in light of the facts presented in the chapter, the authors think privatization was inevitable. This is a conclusion one sees too often, despite that no clear counterfactual analysis has been done to imagine a world in which Zambia had held onto the mines well into the twenty-first century. The price of copper more than doubled in real terms in the first ten years of the new century. Any entity (private or state) would likely have posted profits under these circumstances.
The two most stellar chapters on the broad topic of resource mobilization from copper are “Mineral Taxation in Zambia,” by Robert F. Conrad (Chapter 5), and “Mining in Zambia: Revitalization and the Challenges of Inclusive Prosperity,” by Christopher Adam, Alexander Lippert, and Anthony Simpasa (Chapter 9). If anything, the reader is advised to read the two chapters in quick succession. Chapter 9 aims to provide a quantifiable picture of what has been termed the “cashless copper boom”—referring to the widely held notion that Zambia has not benefited from the recovery in prices that began circa 2002. Their estimate of the foregone revenue as a result of generous tax incentives given to the new mine owners are on the order of US$ 2.8 billion, or five times the infrastructure financing gap in 2013. The chapter by Robert Conrad, a mining taxation expert, seeks to be a diagnostic of Zambia’s mining tax regime. We learn that the country’s mining tax regime is not best-in-class, giving mining companies lots of leeway to avoid paying taxes. Mr. Conrad, thankfully, gives useful suggestions on how to improve tax collection from the mines.
The least impressive chapter in the four that focus on copper is “Zambia: A Time for Big Opportunities and Tough Decisions,” by Paul Collier, which appears as Chapter 2. The subtleties of Zambia’s post-independence history are not properly spelled out. Contra Collier, the mines were privately owned from independence in 1964 until about 1970, when the state took a majority stake. Collier is also less-than-careful with his retelling of Zambia’s political history. The country was not a One Party State from the get-go. This was only introduced in 1972, a full eight years after independence, following recommendations of the Chona Commission of Inquiry. Getting the historical context right is, indeed, crucial if we are to have a proper discussion of policy recommendations.
As stated above, the book focuses on much more than copper, with additional chapters on agriculture, health, transportation, housing policy, democracy, etc. A full review of all seventeen chapters would fill many pages. It is, however, hoped that the extensive review of the chapters on the copper industry above has given the prospective reader a taste of the wealth of knowledge contained in the book.