This paper disambiguates the concept of “enforcement” in international law (as a matter of authorized coercion in the Kelsenian sense), from that of “compliance” (which implicates a spectrum of political options for states and non-state actors). Because the Philippines v. China Arbitration Award is also a source of international law (albeit a subsidiary one), the enforcement of this Award requires that all states adhere to their continuing obligations under the law of state responsibility not to recognize or support any of the unlawful situations or illegal acts identified in this Arbitration Award, particularly those involving destruction of the marine environment in the high seas of the South China Sea from land building activities; any state-sanctioned or state-supported uses of force against Philippine fishermen, or hydrocarbon exploration activities in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone [EEZ]; and state law enforcement activities that create serious risks of collisions at sea, among others. I argue that while the Philippines v. China Arbitral Award does not (and never intended to) resolve maritime delimitation between South China Sea disputing claimants, all disputants and global stakeholders can internalize the award in various compliance paths—from the conclusion of the long overdue ASEAN-China Code of Conduct for Parties to the South China Sea, to the formulation of various provisional arrangements under UNCLOS Articles 74(3) and 83(3) to achieve co-operation on marine resource and fisheries management and set possible provisional boundaries pending delimitation, as well as mutual restraint arrangements [MRAs] to ensure safety and good order at sea between all disputants.
When, however, issues of international law involve relative power positions, especially if relations are not precisely reciprocal, good faith, self-interest, custom, and national enforcement have not been effective sanctions … National political authorities usually place considerations of national security in the particular situation ahead of international obligations … In international law, as in other kinds of law, genuine sanctions must proceed from the authority of the legal community superior to both litigants, and must be supported by the force of that community …Footnote 2
Most frequently the real problem is not in arriving at an answer in law, but in enforcing an answer in law … Law comprises not only the verbal pronouncements of authoritative organs, but also the established patterns of behavior of the individuals composing society …Footnote 3
External power, therefore, supported by the general consent of the family of nations, and assisted by such reverence for law as may be found among its members, is the instrument by which the law of nations is enforced.Footnote 4
I ENFORCEMENT VIS-À-VIS COMPLIANCE
Enforcement of an international decision is not automatically synonymous with a state’s compliance with that decision. Enforcement refers to the “transformation, by community means, of authoritative pronouncement into controlling reality … Securing enforcement of a particular decision in the international arena depends ultimately upon the ingenuity, resourcefulness, and energy of the winning party”.Footnote 5 It is the victorious party that actively seeks to enforce an international decision upon the offending state, not only to vindicate its rights but also to obtain redress and avoid further harm or injury caused by the internationally wrongful acts of that state.Footnote 6
Compliance with an international decision, on the other hand, refers to a “state of conformity or identity between an actor’s behavior and a specified rule … [which] is agnostic about causality … most theories of compliance with international law are at bottom theories of the behavioral influence of legal rules”.Footnote 7 Realist, institutionalist, and normative theories abound in international relations, political science, and international law scholarship to explain why, when, and in what circumstances states comply with their international obligations.Footnote 8 Ultimately, whether a state complies with an international decision does not wholly depend on the efforts of the victorious injured party seeking enforcement, but from a range of factors that succeed in engaging the state’s self-interests, such as: (1) objectives of strategic co-operation and concern for international reciprocity; (2) internal and external reputational concerns; (3) its sense of identity with shared acceptable norms of international behaviour; or (4) the state’s sense of legitimacy and fairness.Footnote 9 When the victorious injured party seeks to enforce an international decision against the offending state, it seeks to have that state implement the terms of the specific dispositif of the international decision.Footnote 10 When a state ultimately complies with an international decision, however, it does so generally in the absence of official international machinery or world government that centrally guarantees the implementation of international decisions.Footnote 11
Determining how a state complies with an international judicial or arbitral decision is thus hardly a simple or unequivocal exercise. The political acts required to give effect to the decision may result in a state’s compliance being not just a matter of degree, but also of timing.Footnote 12
[T]here is considerable variation in the degree to which states comply with international law … [which] seems to cut across issue areas … much depends on the type of reputation state elites hope to establish—both vis-à-vis the international community and their national counterparts as well as in relation to the domestic society. A desire for a reputation for “playing by the rules” will both direct and constrain state behavior. However, if compliance risks provoking discontent at home, what seems to matter most is the head of state’s “executive tenacity”. Naturally, autocrats can act with far more freedom than democratically elected leaders, but this means they will always ignore public opinion. Conversely, if the state elites are more interested in developing a reputation for irascibility, this must be weighed against domestic expectations and it is possible that the politically vulnerable leader will opt to comply in the face of public support for the rule despite his initial inclinations. All of this occurs against a backdrop of economic incentives and governing capacity, of course.Footnote 13
Noting these threshold nuances between the enforcement of an international decision against a responsible state, and the responsible state’s ultimate compliance with the international decision, how should one analyze the People’s Republic of China’s rejectionFootnote 14 of the ruling of an UNCLOS Annex VII tribunal in Philippines v. China?Footnote 15 What does it mean for the Philippines, as the successful litigant, to “seek enforcement”Footnote 16 of this Arbitral Award in a case initiated long before the current Duterte administration’s foreign policy shift “aligning”Footnote 17 with China, and announcing the “setting aside”Footnote 18 of the Arbitration Award? Conversely, are there any feasible paths for China to eventually comply with this Arbitral Award,Footnote 19 despite its public objectionsFootnote 20 to the lawful authority and jurisdiction of the Arbitral Tribunal that issued this Award? Or should contemporary political developments and evolving foreign policies between the Philippines, China, and other interested parties in the South China SeaFootnote 21 be read as evidence of the desuetudeFootnote 22 of the customary principles and treaty norms articulated in the Philippines v. China Arbitral Award?
Before examining the enforcement options of the Philippines vis-à-vis other paths to compliance with the Philippines v. China Arbitral Award, I will first clarify the dispositif of the Arbitral Award and what conduct it requires, if any, from the two states in this case. Noting that the Philippines v. China Award is a subsidiary source of international lawFootnote 23 as well as a bindingFootnote 24 arbitral award directly affecting the parties to this case, I will then differentiate between the Philippines’ enforcement options, China’s paths to compliance, and the possible shared interests of other states in China’s ultimate compliance with the Philippines v. China Award.
II THE DISPOSITIF ON THE MERITS OF THE PHILIPPINES V. CHINA ARBITRAL AWARD
The Philippines v. China Arbitral Award lays down the Tribunal’s declaratory judgment over various legal and interrelated factual questions. In its Award on Jurisdiction and Admissibility,Footnote 25 the Tribunal held that: (1) it was properly constituted pursuant to Annex VII of UNCLOS; (2) China’s non-appearance did not deprive the Tribunal of its jurisdiction; (3) the Philippines did not commit an abuse of process in initiating the arbitration; and (4) the Tribunal would consider seven of the Philippines’ submissions on the merits, subject to conditions indicated by the Tribunal in its Award on Jurisdiction and Admissibility.Footnote 26 The dispositif on the merits of the Arbitral Award on the merits set out the Tribunal’s sixteen declaratory findings. These could be divided into three broad areas: (1) the inconsistency of China’s “nine-dash line map” with UNCLOS maritime entitlement limits;Footnote 27 (2) the characterization of various geographical features as features within the meaning of UNCLOS Article 121(1) and low-tide elevations within the meaning of UNCLOS Article 13,Footnote 28 rocks under UNCLOS Article 121(3),Footnote 29 or other high-tide features,Footnote 30 and the legal consequences of each characterization;Footnote 31 and (3) China’s multiple breaches of UNCLOS obligations as a result of various activities, such as the implementation of a fishing moratorium in the South China Sea,Footnote 32 prevention of traditional Philippine fishing activities at Scarborough Shoal,Footnote 33 the destruction of the South China Sea coral reef ecosystem due to the harvesting of giant clams,Footnote 34 the construction of artificial islands, installations, and structures in the South China Sea,Footnote 35 the conduct of Chinese law enforcement vessels in Scarborough Shoal,Footnote 36 and the aggravation of the dispute due to China’s land reclamation and island-building activities.Footnote 37
As may be seen from the above enumeration, the Arbitral Tribunal in Philippines v. China confined its award on the merits to declaratory relief. Declaratory judgments, such as the Philippines v. China Arbitral Award of 12 July 2016, ultimately ensure the “recognition of a situation at law, once and for all and with binding force between the parties, so that the legal position thus established cannot again be called in question in so far as the legal effects ensuing therefrom are concerned”.Footnote 38 Declaratory judgments in international law are significant, in that they also assist with how international tribunals discharge their “preventive functions”, through the adjudication of disputes “before either party has acted on his own assumption as to his rights and broken the status quo”.Footnote 39 They may also help generate a “deterrent effect”, when the judicial pronouncement of a breach “acts as a deterrent to prevent governing authorities committing the same or similar breaches”.Footnote 40
Most importantly, the fundamental purpose of declaratory judgments such as the Philippines v. China Arbitral Award of 12 July 2016 is to “clarify and stabilize the legal relations of the parties”.Footnote 41 It is in this light that the Philippines v. China Arbitral Award of 12 July 2016 should be seen as an adjudication—not of the merits of a maritime delimitation dispute—but rather, of unsettled antecedent or preliminaryFootnote 42 legal questions well short of actual maritime boundary delimitation.Footnote 43 The Philippines v. China Arbitral Award authoritatively provides legal determinacy over the narrow questions of: (1) the compatibility of China’s nine-dash line map with UNCLOS maritime limits; (2) the characterization of certain geographical features in relation to UNCLOS Article 121 and whether these features generate maritime zones; and (3) the consistency of China’s law enforcement activities and island-building activities with obligations under the UNCLOS. None of these questions involve drawing or settling the final maritime boundary delimitations between any of the South China Sea claimants, noting that maritime delimitation is defined as:
[T]he process of establishing lines of spatial ambit of coastal State jurisdiction over maritime space where the legal title overlaps with that of another State … it is an operation to be effected between two or more States, as its object is to separate overlapping areas where legal titles of coastal States compete and each State attempts to exercise spatial jurisdiction over the same maritime space … maritime delimitation has always had an international character in the sense that it is not a unilateral act, but must be effected between a plurality of States.Footnote 44
Clearly, the questions that the Philippines v. China Arbitral Award resolved nowhere engaged in the “task of delimitation [which] consists in resolving the overlapping claims by drawing a line of separation between the maritime areas concerned”.Footnote 45 Neither did the Arbitral Award implement any of the “four main steps”Footnote 46 in the process of maritime delimitation (e.g. identifying the relevant coasts and baselines, ascertaining whether there is a pre-existing agreement relating to the delimitation of the maritime areas, delimiting the territorial sea by applying the equidistance-special circumstances rule, and delimiting the exclusive economic zone / continental shelf by applying the equidistance-relevant circumstances rule).Footnote 47
Having clarified the declaratory nature of the Philippines v. China Arbitral Award of 12 July 2016, the following section will differentiate between the Philippines’ enforcement options and China’s possible paths to compliance.
III THE PHILIPPINES’ ENFORCEMENT OPTIONS AND CHINA’S POSSIBLE PATHS TO COMPLIANCE
UNCLOS Article 296(1) states that “[a]ny decision rendered by a court or tribunal having jurisdiction under this section shall be final and shall be complied with by all the parties to the dispute”.Footnote 48 The Philippines v. China Arbitral Award thus has binding force with respect to the parties, and in respect of the particular dispute.Footnote 49 While China’s continuing obligation to comply with the terms of the dispositif in the Philippines v. China Arbitral Award stems fundamentally from pacta sunt servanda,Footnote 50 any controversy that may arise between the Philippines and China on the interpretation or manner of implementation of the Award may be submitted by either party for decision to the same Arbitral Tribunal that issued the 12 July 2016 Award on the merits.Footnote 51
The Philippines can enforce the declaratory relief granted in Philippines v. China by acting consistentlyFootnote 52 with the legal conclusions drawn by the Tribunal in the dispositif, always internalizing the Arbitral Award as the authoritative adjudication of the questions resolved in the arbitration. This can be explored in many ways. Ordinarily, under the collective security system of international law,Footnote 53 a state’s failure to perform obligations incumbent upon it under a judgment of the International Court of Justice [ICJ] could be referred by the affected state to the United Nations Security Council who may “make recommendations or decide upon measures to give effect to the judgment”.Footnote 54 In this case, involving an UNCLOS Annex VII arbitral award, however, should China escalate any of the conduct that the Philippines v. China Arbitral Tribunal adjudged to breach various norms of UNCLOS and general international law (such as the creation of artificial islands; destruction of the marine environment; prohibited law enforcement activities that created serious risk of collisions with vessels;Footnote 55 and Chinese flagged vessels preventing Philippine fishermen from engaging in traditional fishing at Scarborough Shoal, among others) to a point that ripens into “breaches of the peace”,Footnote 56 and the Security Council fails to act on a matter involving one of its permanent members, the Philippines could, in principle, seek recourse at the United Nations General Assembly under its “Uniting for Peace” Resolution, for the General Assembly to “consider the matter immediately with a view to making appropriate recommendations to Members for collective measures, including in the case of a breach of the peace … to maintain or restore international peace and security”.Footnote 57
Short of actual military conflict erupting in the region that imperils international peace and security, the Philippines could internalize the Philippines v. China Arbitral Award dispositif in its maritime delimitation negotiations (if any) with China;Footnote 58 in clearly defining the programmatic scope and framework of future lawful enforcement measures at sea rather than relying on ad hoc talks with Chinese authorities;Footnote 59 crafting a possible fishing rights agreement with China over Scarborough Shoal common fishing grounds;Footnote 60 determining the scope of development concessions in its exclusive economic zones noting the rejection of China’s historic rights and the reinforcement of the UNCLOS system of maritime zones;Footnote 61 and in devising its internationally lawful responses to any future escalations, such as a potential Chinese air defence identification zone over the South China Sea,Footnote 62 any potential island-building activities extending to Scarborough Shoal,Footnote 63 or any dangerous military activities in the South China Sea.Footnote 64 Particularly with respect to the Tibunal’s findings of massive marine environmental devastation from China’s island-building activities,Footnote 65 the Philippines could propose claimants’ joint monitoring of the global commons in the South China Sea (noting proposals for a Marine Peace ParkFootnote 66 or common international marine environmental reserveFootnote 67 ). It could also negotiate or seek other dispute settlement options with China for compensation and/or environmental remediation of the proven devastated coral reefs and destroyed ecosystems from China’s island-building activities.Footnote 68
China’s long-term interests in forging credible global co-operation under the aegis of its “One Road, One Belt”Footnote 69 economic and diplomatic programme lends urgency to preserving its international reputation to fellow states with whom China seeks to create enduring strategic economic partnerships. Continued non-compliance with the Philippines v. China Arbitral Award may create unwanted reputational costs on China or pressures from the international system. As reported recently by other scholars, China appears to be complying with some parts of the Philippines v. China Arbitral Award, and not yet with others.Footnote 70 Most importantly, the litmus test to determine whether China will completely, continuously, and permanently disregard and ignore the legal situation as authoritatively defined in the dispositif of the Philippines v. China Arbitral Award lies with the actual terms of any durable bilateral co-operation that the Philippines and China can establish in the future, and not just the evolving statements of political leaders. The Philippines and China can both internalize the Arbitral Award in any future bilateral provisional arrangements between them, or, in their participation collectively with all other South China Sea claimants in drafting the long-stalled ASEAN-China Code of Conduct on the South China Sea.Footnote 71 UNCLOS Articles 74(3) and 83(3) permit states that have not yet reached agreement on the delimitation of overlapping exclusive economic zones or continental shelves to “enter into provisional arrangements of a practical nature, and, during this transitional period, not to jeopardize or hamper the reaching of the final agreement. Such arrangements shall be without prejudice to the final delimitation.”Footnote 72 These provisional arrangements must not change the marine environment or cause any change in the permanent character of disputed areas, and the provisional arrangements must be made such as to still enable future negotiations in good faith between all claimants to the dispute.Footnote 73 The clarifications declared in the Philippines v. China Arbitral Award dispositif can usefully foreground the terms of any co-operative, bilateral, and provisional arrangements that the Philippines and China may reach on joint marine resource management, joint hydrocarbon exploration and development,Footnote 74 shared fishing rights at Scarborough Shoal (as a matter of actual intergovernmental treaty or agreement, and not simply through equivocal state practice where China “allows”Footnote 75 the return of Philippine fishermen), and any specific MRAsFootnote 76 applicable to the two countries.
IV CONCLUSION: PHILIPPINES V. CHINA ARBITRAL AWARD AS AN ENDURING SOURCE OF LAW
Can international court judgments and international arbitral awards lose their binding quality as a subsidiary source of international law,Footnote 77 when one or both States Parties to these cases assert, at any given point in time, that they will decline to give force to these judgments or awards? While it may be argued that the Philippines’ recent varying positions could amount to some form of acquiescence with China’s legal positions on the questions resolved in the Philippines v. China arbitration, it must be remembered that acquiescence only operates “where the vindication of a claim or course of action depends on the consent of the States affected”.Footnote 78 The Tribunal’s clarification of the status of China’s nine-dash line map and its compatibility with maritime limits prescribed in UNCLOS, its legal characterization of certain geographical features in relation to UNCLOS Article 121, and the inconsistency of the corpus of China’s law enforcement and island-building activities in the South China Sea with various provisions of UNCLOS and related maritime conventions, are all issues the vindication of which do not depend on the consent of either the Philippines or China. The law governing these questions as between both parties, as articulated authoritatively in the Philippines v. China Arbitral Award, remains regardless of either state’s present or future inclination to “seek enforcement” of the Award now or to voluntarily “comply” with the Award later. Barring famous rare instances of non-compliance with the judgments of the ICJ,Footnote 79 there is a greater preponderance of state compliance with international decisions over time,Footnote 80 with non-compliance often being “slight”Footnote 81 rather than egregious. The actual track record of Philippine “enforcement”, vis-à-vis China’s “compliance”, with the landmark Philippines v. China Arbitral Award of 12 July 2016 has barely begun.