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Glaciers in the Alps and several other regions in the world have experienced strong negative mass balances over the past few decades. Some of them are disappearing, undergoing exceptionally negative mass balances that impact the mean regional value, and require replacement. In this study, we analyse the geomorphometric characteristics of 46 mass-balance glaciers in the Alps and the long-term mass-balance time series for a subset of nine reference glaciers. We identify regime shifts in the mass-balance time series (when non-climatic controls started impacting) and develop a glacier vulnerability index (GVI) as a proxy for their possible future development, based on criteria such as hypsometric index, breaks in slope, thickness distribution and elevation change pattern. We found that the subset of 46 mass-balance glaciers reflects the characteristics of the total glacier sample very well and identified a region-specific variability of the mass balance. As the GVI is strongly related to cumulative glacier mass balances, it can be used as a pre-selector of future mass-balance glaciers. We conclude that measurements on rapidly shrinking glaciers should be continued as long as possible to identify regime shifts in hind-cast and better understand the impacts of climatic variability on such glaciers.
For as long as the EU has had a policy on climate change, transport has stood out as an anomalous sector. Between 1995 and 2004, greenhouse gas emissions across the EU declined by 5 per cent but grew by 26 per cent in the transport sector (COM (2007) 856: 2). As noted in Chapter 4, the sector’s position is still anomalous today. Indeed, as the EU’s climate policies have expanded, so too has the perception that the EU’s ability to decarbonise – which by the 2000s had been elevated to one of its most significant strategic ambitions – may well stand or fall on the basis of what is achieved in the transport sector, and especially the road transport sector (ten Brink, 2010: 180–181), which today still accounts for around 70 per cent of overall transport emissions (COM (2016) 501: 2).
The behavioral sciences were there at the beginning of the systematic study of climate change. However, in the ensuing quarter century, they largely faded from view, during which time public discourse and policy evolved without them. That disengagement and the recent reengagement suggest lessons for the future role of the behavioral sciences in climate science and policy. Looking forward, the greatest promise lies in projects that make behavioral science integral to climate science by: (1) translating behavioral results into the quantitative estimates that climate analyses need; (2) making climate research more relevant to climate-related decisions; and (3) treating the analytical process as a behavioral enterprise, potentially subject to imperfection and improvement. Such collaborations could afford the behavioral sciences more central roles in setting climate-related policies, as well as implementing them. They require, and may motivate, changes in academic priorities.
The effect of freshwater sources on wintertime sea-ice CO2 processes was studied from the glacier front to the outer Tempelfjorden, Svalbard, in sea ice, glacier ice, brine and snow. March–April 2012 was mild, and the fjord was mainly covered with drift ice, in contrast to the observed thicker fast ice in the colder April 2013. This resulted in different physical and chemical properties of the sea ice and under-ice water. Data from stable oxygen isotopic ratios and salinity showed that the sea ice at the glacier front in April 2012 contained on average 54% of frozen-in glacial meltwater. This was five times higher than in April 2013, where the ice was frozen seawater. In April 2012, the largest excess of sea-ice total alkalinity (AT), carbonate ion ([CO32−]) and bicarbonate ion concentrations ([HCO3−]) relative to salinity was mainly related to dissolved dolomite and calcite incorporated during freezing of mineral-enriched glacial water. In April 2013, the excess of these variables was mainly due to ikaite dissolution as a result of sea-ice processes. Dolomite dissolution increased sea-ice AT twice as much as ikaite and calcite dissolution, implying different buffering capacity and potential for ocean CO2 uptake in a changing climate.
Decarbonizing our energy systems is required for a sustainable future, and an uptake of renewable energy plays a central role in this trajectory. Nevertheless, the growth rate of renewables is too slow to meet either the ‘substantial increase’ as intended by Sustainable Development Goal 7, or the two degrees target set by the Paris Agreement. The institutional complex of global renewable energy governance is currently occupied by 46 public, private, and multi-stakeholder institutions, with different characteristics and priorities. Can such a complex governance system provide greater effectiveness for the global energy transition? As a first step in answering this question, this chapter examines coherence and management across the sub-field of renewable energy, and among three selected multi-stakeholder partnerships in further detail. The study builds on an analysis of institutional constellations, a qualitative review of official documents, and semi-structured interviews with climate and energy governance stakeholders and experts. The chapter finds that the renewable energy sub-field is marked by coordination, but simultaneously questions if it requires more than that to iron out existing controversies, trade-offs and potential conflicts. The research results therewith facilitate future performance assessments of global renewable energy governance, and help identify opportunities to enhance its effectiveness.
‘Discourses of climate delay’ pervade current debates on climate action. These discourses accept the existence of climate change, but justify inaction or inadequate efforts. In contemporary discussions on what actions should be taken, by whom and how fast, proponents of climate delay would argue for minimal action or action taken by others. They focus attention on the negative social effects of climate policies and raise doubt that mitigation is possible. Here, we outline the common features of climate delay discourses and provide a guide to identifying them.
Differences in the decadal trend in the winter surface temperature in the northern and southern Antarctic Peninsula have been analysed. Time series from the two stations Esperanza and Faraday/Vernadsky since the early 1950s are used. The two time series are strongly correlated only during the 1980s and 1990s when their variability and trends are associated with both the Niño-4 region and Southern Annular Mode impacts. The winter cooling at the Faraday/Vernadsky station contrasts with the winter warming at the Esperanza station during the period of 2006–17. The different temperature trends are accompanied by weak correlations between the temperatures at these two stations. Linearly congruent components of the station temperature trends in 2006–17 indicate a dominant contribution of Southern Annular Mode (tropical sea surface temperature anomalies) to warming (cooling) in the northern (southern) Peninsula. Distinctive impacts of climate modes are observed in combination with the recent deepening of the negative sea-level pressure anomaly to the west of the peninsula and the related change in the zonal and meridional wind components. These factors apparently contribute to the occurrence of the boundary that crosses the peninsula and divides it into sub-regions with warming and cooling.
Adaptation to climate change has traditionally been framed as a local problem. However, in recent years, adaptation has risen on the global policy agenda. This article contributes to the study of transnational climate adaptation through an investigation of international connectivity on climate adaptation between regional policy-makers. We examine the RegionsAdapt initiative, the first global commitment to promote and track the progress of regional adaptation. While adapting to climate change at the regional level is crucial, we suggest that transnational adaptation governance not only helps to promote adaptation measures, but also improves the process of tracking the progress of such action, its visibility and its aggregation.
Landscapes are defined as ‘an area, as perceived by people, whose character is the result of the action and interaction of natural and/or human factors’ (Council of Europe, 2000). Cultural landscapes are defined by the UNESCO World Heritage Convention (1992) as distinct geographical areas or properties uniquely ‘represent[ing] the combined work of nature and of man’. It also describes cultural landscapes as a ‘diversity of manifestations of the interaction between humankind and its natural environment’, and that the protection of traditional cultural landscapes can contribute to maintaining biological diversity. Indeed, Pilgrim and Pretty (2010) propose that the resilience of ecocultural systems is at its strongest when biological and cultural diversity can be considered as an interdependent whole.
Ponds that form on sea ice can cause it to thin or break-up, which can promote calving from an adjacent ice shelf. Studies of sea ice ponds have predominantly focused on Arctic ponds formed by in situ melting/ponding. Our study documents another mechanism for the formation of sea ice ponds. Using Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 images from the 2015–16 to 2018–19 austral summers, we analyze the evolution of sea ice ponds that form adjacent to the McMurdo Ice Shelf, Antarctica. We find that each summer, meltwater flows from the ice shelf onto the sea ice and forms large (up to 9 km2) ponds. These ponds decrease the sea ice's albedo, thinning it. We suggest the added mass of runoff causes the ice to flex, potentially promoting sea-ice instability by the ice-shelf front. As surface melting on ice shelves increases, we suggest that ice-shelf surface hydrology will have a greater effect on sea-ice stability.
Chapter 1 – How do we change the world? – presents the rationale of the book, its aim, and scope, introduces key concepts and outlines the state of research on and for transformations toward sustainability. The chapter highlights different calls for sustainability transformations in the United Nations 2030 Agenda, countries’ contributions to the Paris Agreement and subsequent negotiations within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The chapter further discusses the difference between the concepts of transformation and transition. The chapter argues that greater conceptual clarity on sustainability transformations across societies in the world facilitates decision-making and planning in form of democratization, organizational effectiveness and international cooperation.
Greenhouse gas emissions abatement, negative emissions technologies, and adaptation are not, and most likely will not, be enough to prevent dangerous climate change and its deleterious impacts on humans, other species, and ecosystems. Some scientists and others are increasingly considering and researching solar geoengineering, which would reflect or block some of the sun's incoming solar radiation, as a potential complementary response. This introductory chapter offers an initial explanation of climate change and solar geoengineering, including its leading proposed techniques of stratospheric aerosol injection, marine cloud brightening, and cirrus cloud thinning. Solar geoengineering should be taken seriously, as its governance is both important and challenging. Among the major challenges is that solar geoengineering presents a high-stakes risk-risk tradeoff under conditions of great uncertainty. Another is that although earlier governance can be more effective, little is then known of such an emerging technology’s salient characteristics. The chapter outlines the topics covered by the remainder of the book and makes the author’s prior assumptions explicit.