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Introduction to Catastrophe Risk Modelling A Physics-based Approach

Authors

Arnaud Mignan
, Mignan Risk Analytics Gmbh, Switzerland, and Institute of Risk Analysis, Prediction & Management (Risks-X), SUSTech, Shenzhen, China
Published 2024

Description

Focusing on the physics of the catastrophe process and addressed directly to advanced students, this innovative textbook quantifies dozens of perils, both natural and man-made, and covers the latest developments in catastrophe modelling. Combining basic statistics, applied physics, natural and environmental sciences, civil engineering, and psychology, the text remains at an introductory level, focusing on fundamental concepts for a comprehensive understanding of catastrophe phenomenology and risk quantification. A broad spectrum of perils are covered, including geophysical, hydrological, meteorological, climatological, biological,…

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Key features

  • Comprehensive overview of 42 natural and man-made perils, providing a comprehensive 'go to' text on catastrophe risk modelling
  • Step-by-step guidance on how to build a simplified CAT risk model from scratch
  • Hazard and risk assessed probabilistically, following the standard methods used by reinsurers, catastrophe risk model vendors, and civil protection agencies
  • Simple models provided for dozens of perils, in the form of analytical expressions, simple algorithms and pseudocodes
  • Catastrophe ontology, based on first principle rules and commonalities between perils, that describes any peril following the same modelling procedure, from hazard to risk
  • Text enlivened with historical and cultural references
  • Consideration of future horizons in modelling, including coverage of more speculative or complex perils such as asteroid impacts, pest infestations, social unrest, cascading failures, complex Earth systems with the role of global warming quantified

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