Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Preface
- Notation Used
- Abbreviations
- 1 Introduction
- 2 Basics
- 3 Probability Distributions
- 4 Statistical Inference
- 5 Linear Regression
- 6 Neural Networks
- 7 Non-linear Optimization
- 8 Learning and Generalization
- 9 Principal Components and Canonical Correlation
- 10 Unsupervised Learning
- 11 Time Series
- 12 Classification
- 13 Kernel Methods
- 14 Decision Trees, Random Forests and Boosting
- 15 Deep Learning
- 16 Forecast Verification and Post-processing
- 17 Merging of Machine Learning and Physics
- Appendices
- References
- Index
16 - Forecast Verification and Post-processing
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 23 March 2023
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Preface
- Notation Used
- Abbreviations
- 1 Introduction
- 2 Basics
- 3 Probability Distributions
- 4 Statistical Inference
- 5 Linear Regression
- 6 Neural Networks
- 7 Non-linear Optimization
- 8 Learning and Generalization
- 9 Principal Components and Canonical Correlation
- 10 Unsupervised Learning
- 11 Time Series
- 12 Classification
- 13 Kernel Methods
- 14 Decision Trees, Random Forests and Boosting
- 15 Deep Learning
- 16 Forecast Verification and Post-processing
- 17 Merging of Machine Learning and Physics
- Appendices
- References
- Index
Summary
Forecast verification evaluates the quality of the forecasts made by a model, using a variety of forecast scores developed for binary classes, multiple classes, continuous variables and probabilistic forecasts. Skill scores estimate a model’s skill relative to a reference model or benchmark. Problems such as spurious skills and extrapolation with new data are discussed. Model bias in the output predicted by numerical models is alleviated by post-processing methods, while output from numerical models with low spatial resolution is enhanced by downscaling methods, especially in climate change studies.
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- Introduction to Environmental Data Science , pp. 518 - 548Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2023